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Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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can I get a little release from moderation consideration?


Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Rob Ellison

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‘To only a few chemicals does man owe as great a debt as to DDT. It has contributed to the great increase in agricultural productivity, while sparing countless humanity from a host of diseases, most notably, perhaps, scrub typhus and malaria. Indeed, it is estimated that, in little more than two decades, DDT has prevented 500 million deaths due to malaria that would otherwise have been inevitable. Abandonment of this valuable insecticide should be undertaken only at such time and in such places as it is evident that the prospective gain to humanity exceeds the consequent losses. At this writing, all available substitutes for DDT are both more expensive per crop-year and decidedly more hazardous.’

National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Research in the Life Sciences of the Committee on Science and Public Policy, The Life Sciences: Recent Progress and Application to Human Affairs, The World of Biological Research, Requirements for the Future (Washington, D.C.: GPO, 1970), 432.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by bdaabat

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@ Fran: I can tell you read the study by the way you quoted from it so selectively. Perhaps you can explain to others that may not have read the study how the test “subjects” experiences translate to usual human exposures? Perhaps you can then look at the doses used in the study and translate that dose information into usual human exposure experience?

Your conclusion is not supported by the evidence.

Once again, when was the last time you heard of someone ending up dead from pesticide residues in food. Then look at outbreaks of deaths secondary to “organic” farming practices that have actually killed real people. Applying the precautionary principle, one must conclude that organic farming is more harmful to people than traditional high intensity farming practices.

Bruce

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Michael

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Rob,

If you really think that 25 million people were dying of malaria every year, then I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

Scepticism, remember it?

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by JCH

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Death rates were higher in the Vietnam War than for the US Navy and Marine Corps in WW2: one source indicates 113,000 cases and 90 deaths.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by ianl8888

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> … renewable or limitless energy

Do you really believe that ?

I’ve not seen one post from you that offers the slightest hint of reality on this topic

Try to grasp it, Jimmy old bean, renewabubbles are unreliabubbles. Comic book bubbles

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by NW

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I don’t see much of an issue with sharing risk widely, and disagree with most of what people say about this and the financial crisis. What’s problematic is incentivizing risk-taking without adequate due diligence and monitoring, and then selling the mortgage so created to someone else as if it was your grandfather’s mortgage with Jimmy Stewart.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Faustino

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I responded to Joshua out of courtesy, and look where that led – so much off-topic wasted energy. I’d learned this lesson before, hopefully I’ll recall it another time.


Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by NW

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Another way of thinking about this is Jacob Frenkel’s well-known elevator description of the Miller-Modigliani theorem: “If you cut a pizza into many slices, you still have one pizza.” The problem was not slicing up pizzas; it was starting with crap pizza.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by NW

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Yes, and what about peanuts? Deadly to a segment of the population. Ban them too?

Which raises the issue of fundamental heterogeneity of treatment effects. When toxicology aggregates data from many individuals and finds some risk using a between-estimator, what the hell does that mean? That all members of the population are sensitive, or that a fraction of the population is very sensitive? Would you ban peanuts on the same grounds?

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Jim D

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At low cost compared to global GDP, apparently. Even Lomborg has those numbers and graphs on mitigation costs in his senate presentation. Of course, global GDP isn’t a good measure of damage due to climate change because losing livelihoods and lives in poor countries doesn’t impact global GDP much, as Lomborg should know, if he cares. But loss is only measured by GDP for him, going by his presentation. It’s an extremely capitalist view of the world’s worth.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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Faustino, “I responded to Joshua out of courtesy, and look where that led – so much off-topic wasted energy.”

Not much waste really. The national geographic article was interesting. Another thing that is interesting is that cerebral malaria might explain a good deal of the post traumatic stress issues of Vietnam vets plus malaria prophylactic drugs like mefloquine might be doing more harm than good.

There is also an interesting EPA document entitled, “DDT, A Review of Scientific and Economic Aspects of the Decision To Ban Its Use as a Pesticide”

Also interesting is the number of acres of wetlands drained since the early 1900s to combat malaria, encephalitis and various fevers which would likely have some impact on Climate as well as health.

All of these relate to precautionary actions that might not have expected results, none of which I would have read had you not responded. Pretty much right on topic I would think :)

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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One of the joys of being southern is that we don’t have A pizza. There are fewer “crap” pizzas once you eliminate regional pizza bias.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Rob Ellison

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The quote comes from the US National Academy of Sciences in a 1970 report – as clearly shown.

How many hundreds of millions do you think it was Michael?

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by NW

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Ah yes. Pizza is various, and we’d all be happier if we kept this in mind. The real problem is that all pizzas are made by people who are stoned, so the quality control ain’t so great. Put differently, every pizza parlour makes some great pizza and some crap pizza.


Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Rob Ellison

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Yes – it is a very capitalist view of things. Maximum economic growth and a high energy future as the highest priority.

Fast mitigation and adaptation that actually improves lives – and of course energy innovation. All the rest is about as tedious and fringe extremist stupid as Bart. I know – let’s vote on it.

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by NW

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Well I for one hope they deal with all this Very Bad Stuff (VBS) in a decisive way, especially if it is manufactured abroad and competes with domestic Very Benign Stuff (also VBS to avoid confusion).

Comment on The 97% feud by Brian H

Comment on Role of Atlantic warming(?) in recent climate shifts by L’uovo Pacifico e la Gallina Atlantica | Climatemonitor

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[…] blog di Judith Curry, c’è un post dedicato a questo argomento, anche perché la Curry ha pubblicato alcuni mesi fa un paper in cui si […]

Comment on A precautionary tale: more sorry than safe(?) by Rob Ellison

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“Think of the firm as a gigantic tub of whole milk. The farmer can sell the whole milk as is. Or he can separate out the cream and sell it at a considerably higher price than the whole milk would bring. (That’s the analog of a firm selling low-yield and hence high-priced debt securities.) But, of course, what the farmer would have left would be skim milk with low butterfat content and that would sell for much less than whole milk. That corresponds to the levered equity. The M and M proposition says that if there were no costs of separation (and, of course, no government dairy-support programs), the cream plus the skim milk would bring the same price as the whole milk.”

Modligliani-Miller theory – named after the Italian painter and sculptor and the great American literary stylist. But then as applied to stoned pizza chefs?

Obviously I think you are totally full of it. Pizza is a creative act where the whole is much greater than the parts and is very much enhanced with mind altering drugs like beer. Quality control be damned.

The best beer for this is Victoria Bitter full Strength – VBfS.

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