Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Stephen Rasey

August 21, 2014, 2:16 pm

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“It came out of a computer, so it must be right.”

There is no possibility we know the temperature profile of the world’s oceans, particularly deeper than 300 meters prior to 1990 ALACE and deeper than 1000 meters prior to ARGO in 2004, to support the conclusions of this paper.

The Uncertainty Monster is alive and well, swimming just under the surface of this paper. 1×10^20 J (really J/m) translates to a temperature resolution of 0.07 dec C maximum scale for each meter in the OHC plots. (Rule of Thumb: 27.5 ZJ = 0.01 deg C for the 0-2000 meter water column).

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Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

August 21, 2014, 2:22 pm

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This is science, not policy.

The TCR is about 2C per doubling of CO2 and ECS is 3C per doubling.

That is the value when the modulation cancels out in the long run.

You can now make your policy opinions known in light of this knowledge.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

August 21, 2014, 2:26 pm

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freehat, every paper should age a bit, but there are a number of other papers, most from the GFLD, that indicate at that ACC and THC have the potential for much larger impacts on global climate that many include in their estimates of the range of natural variability. So I think this is a good one to bookmark.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

August 21, 2014, 2:27 pm

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Deniers are easily fooled by optical illusions. That’s what makes them deniers and not scientists.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by vukcevic

August 21, 2014, 2:32 pm

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Not so much of hiatus as progression of a quasi-periodic variability, the SST ‘cycles’ are trailing and not leading N. Atlantic series of the events <a href="http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-cor.htm" rel="nofollow"> (see last graph HERE)</a>

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by John

August 21, 2014, 2:34 pm

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Looking at this passage:

“Rapid warming in the last three decades of the 20th century, they found, was roughly half due to global warming and half to the natural Atlantic Ocean cycle that kept more heat near the surface.”

This fits in pretty nicely, in a rough sort of way, with the idea that climate sensitivity is about half what the IPCC thinks , e.g., you might get 1.25 to 1.5 degrees C for a doubling of CO2 and equivalents.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Jim D

August 21, 2014, 2:36 pm

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Oddly for this “cool phase” we find that both polar glaciers are being lost at a high and accelerating rate. I suspect we won’t see a post on this new work, so here it is.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/21/antarctica-greenland-melting-ice_n_5697998.html

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by AK

August 21, 2014, 2:39 pm

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<blockquote>This is science, not policy.</blockquote>No. Policy preferences are implicit in every "scientific argument" we see here.<blockquote>The TCR is about 2C per doubling of CO2 and ECS is 3C per doubling.</blockquote>ECS is a myth. For that matter, so is TCR. And, given the known effect of rising temperatures on natural emission/absorption of CO2, so is <i>"doubling"</i>. Best evidence is there's a complex feedback process at work.<blockquote>That is the value when the modulation cancels out in the long run.</blockquote>And if we could be sure that <i>"value when the modulation cancels out"</i> were correct, any action to control CO2 that had any significant cost would be contra-indicated.<blockquote>You can now make your policy opinions known in light of this knowledge.</blockquote>Useless knowledge, considering how many potential risks there are besides the <b>assumed</b> linear response of the system to human emissions of fossil CO2.

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Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

August 21, 2014, 2:41 pm

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Cappy,
The variations in ENSO as characterized by SOI make a perfectly good proxy for interannual global temperature variability over the instrumental era.

Too bad you have to resort to knee-jerk denial as your only counter-argument.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

August 21, 2014, 2:43 pm

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Webster, “The variations in ENSO as characterized by SOI make a perfectly good proxy for interannual global temperature variability over the instrumental era.”

Interannual isn’t climate, it is weather. Climate is more on the order of centuries. The LIA for example wasn’t an interannual event.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by phatboy

August 21, 2014, 2:44 pm

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But just a little earlier on, you posted:

HR, putting heat deep in the ocean just delays and doesn’t stop global warming. In the long term, the energy balance wins.

You can’t have it both ways.

Comment on Mann vs Steyn et al. discussion thread by thisisnotgoodtogo

August 21, 2014, 2:46 pm

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Mann called others frauds.
Now we find all kinds of untruths lie in Pilty’s Complaint.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Rob Ellison

August 21, 2014, 2:47 pm

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Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth’s radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture. Loeb et al, 2012, Advances in Understanding Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Variability from Satellite Observations

So ocean heat content is consistent with TOA radiant flux? It should be or something is radically amiss with the data.

src=”http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/cloud_palleandlaken2013_zps3c92a9fc.png.html?sort=3&o=138″ width=400>

What it all shows is that cloud change is the dominant term – by far – in the global energy budget in the satellite era.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Tonyb

August 21, 2014, 2:47 pm

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Jimd

This melting of glaciers at both poles sounds eerily similar to the 1920 to 1950 period.

Tell me, at the current rate of depletion how long will it take for the ice to melt? You do know what fraction of a percent this all represents?

Tonyb

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Rob Ellison

August 21, 2014, 2:49 pm

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http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Loeb2011-Fig1.png.html?sort=3&o=176

http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/CERES_MODIS-1.gif.html?sort=3&o=209

http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/cloud_palleandlaken2013_zps3c92a9fc.png.html?sort=3&o=138

What it all shows is that cloud change is the dominant term – by far – in the global energy budget in the satellite era.

Well – that didn’t work. How are images being inserted?

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Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

August 21, 2014, 2:50 pm

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And your argument for this is exactly where?

Citations? Long form derivations?

Oh, I get it, you rely on assertions, that’s the ticket.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by darrylb

August 21, 2014, 2:50 pm

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Ditto

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Jim D

August 21, 2014, 2:52 pm

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Yep, heat can melt glaciers too. Depends where it goes. Plenty around to do both.

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Carrick

August 21, 2014, 2:53 pm

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Jim D:

HR, putting heat deep in the ocean just delays and doesn’t stop global warming. In the long term, the energy balance wins.

This argument is valid even in an approximate sense when you have a stationary (step-function like) forcing. For non-equilibrium systems, as you increase the thermal inertia of the system, you have to drive it proportionally longer to get the same “delta T”.

Practically, more deep-ocean involvement does have an effect on equilibrium climate sensitivity, but it has a much larger effect on transient climate sensitivity (which is a more relevant parameter for discussions of anthropogenically forced climate change).

Comment on Cause of hiatus found deep in the Atlantic Ocean by Wagathon

August 21, 2014, 2:54 pm

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Global warming alarmists cannot simply deny the Antarctica exists because its existence is inconvenient. The latest amount of Antarctic sea ice hit a new record –i.e., the largest amount since 1979 (when accurate measurements were even possible, using satellites):

In its authoritative Fifth Assessment Report released last year, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change admitted that the computer models on which scientists base their projections say Antarctic ice should be in decline, not increasing. ~David Rose (see ibid)</blockquote