Hi relclimat
This disappears. What could possibly be the reason?
Cheers
‘Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL037022/abstract
There are many ways that can and have been used to calculate a maximum residual rate of warming in the order of 0.1 degree C/decade. If you divide the 1950-2010 increase of some 0.65 degrees by 6 decades – you get a little over 0.1 degree C/decade. Even more rationally you could divide the increase between 1994 and 1998 – and assume the cooler and warmer regimes net out – by the elapsed time and you get 0.07 degrees C/decade.
Here’s one using models – http://www.pnas.org/content/106/38/16120/F3.expansion.html
Here’s one from realclimate – http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/
Here’s one subtracting ENSO – ://watertechbyrie.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/ensosubtractedfromtemperaturetrend.gif
And of course there is Tung and Zhou.
The question has and will be asked – especially if the ‘hiatus’ persists for another decade or 2 (as seems more likely than not) – is just how serious this is? The question is moot – climate is a kaleidoscope. Shake it up and a new and unpredictable – bearing an ineluctable risk of climate instability – pattern spontaneously emerges. Climate is wild as Wally has said.
Which if you think about it means that the late 20th century cooler and warmer regimes are overwhelmingly unlikely to net out. Indeed a long term ENSO proxy based on Law Dome ice core salt content suggests a 1000 year peak in El Nino frequency and intensity in the 20th century.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00003.1
However – let’s put that in the imponderables basket for the time being.
The answer to the moot question – btw – is 12 phenomenal ways to save the world – http://watertechbyrie.com/
Looks like my experiment at realclimate is done and dusted.