Comments for Climate Etc.

JimD, do try to keep up, you 4 W/m2 spiel is as bogus as your fear of it

Why don’t the people in Kansas just hire some Butterfly collectors and send them to Brazil?

No one assumes that the rotation of the planet is constant – indeed the LOD was included as a factor in the progenitor of this paper. It is caused by changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation – changes in regime that are seemingly random but completely deterministic.

If the accuracy of prediction of these events is no better than tossing a coin – http://www.geomar.de/en/news/article/klimavorhersagen-ueber-mehrere-jahre-moeglich/ – it leads at least to looking for your keys where they are lost – not under the lamppost. Still less to remaining at the bar pontificating incoherently.

Take a look at the Atlantic Ocean salinity anomoly. Salinity has been proposed as the driver of the AMO. So, there’s a potential mechanism. So, the AMO MIGHT be the driver.

From the article:
“There are recurrent cycles that are salinity-driven that can store heat deep in the Atlantic and Southern oceans,” Tung said. “After 30 years of rapid warming in the warm phase, now it’s time for the cool phase.”

Rapid warming in the last three decades of the 20th century, they found, was roughly half due to global warming and half to the natural Atlantic Ocean cycle that kept more heat near the surface. When observations show the ocean cycle flipped, the current began to draw heat deeper into the ocean, working to counteract human-driven warming.

http://judithcurry.com/2014/08/21/cause-of-hiatus-found-deep-in-the-atlantic-ocean/

I don’t disagree with those clips. There may be a limit to the land-sea contrast, but currently they are diverging as fast as ever, so we haven’t reached it.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/crutem4vgl/from:1900/mean:240/mean:120/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1900/mean:240/mean:120

It is not an insulator – and it doesn’t stop the oceans warming. As for no one knowing that the oceans heat the atmosphere – the dingbats keep coming.

Unbelievable.

Not sure you understood, but it’s OK.

Yet it fundamentally contradicts you?

But a sensible person might then wonder what was happening with precipitation over land. A sensible person would wonder that anyway.

DocM, yes, that is quite fast, isn’t it. If you reduce the aerosol effect as much as Lewis and Curry have that is what you are left with, possibly even more.

If it contradicts me, the observed temperature divergence I showed contradicts it and agrees with me.

‘Previous studies have shown the land/sea warming contrast is not simply due to the larger heat capacity of the ocean when compared to land, but is a result of the dynamics of the climate system….

However, as stated by Byrne and O’Gorman (2013) the energy balance argument does not give a sufficient quantitative value of land warming…

.. assuming the anomalous downward surface energy flux is equal over land and ocean the land/sea warming contrast is caused by the difference in the partitioning of the upward energy flux into sensible and latent heat. ‘

No – Jim – your mechanisms are not right.

Like I said, I agree that the lack of latent heat also makes the land get warmer, especially dry areas. The lack of humidity also leads to less clouds over land, and less rain, so it feeds back towards staying drier and hotter. No surprise there.

Doesn’t matter.

‘However, as stated by Byrne and O’Gorman (2013) the energy balance argument does not give a sufficient quantitative value of land warming…’

And I thought the troposphere was well mixed?

The divergence in the past decade is caused by drought -a lack of moisture availability over land which leads to a reduction in evaporation and latent heat transport from the surface.

As the land continues to get warmer relative to the ocean, the relative humidity over it will drop, leading to less clouds, less rain, drier soil, and more warming, in a feedback that leads to more drought in some areas.

It is the extensive properties of the non-equilibrium climate system that leads to warming and cooling. Would of thought this was central.

And annual to decadal changes seem relatively large.

Judith, has anyone tried to look for a stadium wave signal in CO2 data? I bet it’s there. But like I said, I think something likely mutes and damps the CO2 in ice cores.

The origin of most rain is the oceans. Some 90% in the diagram above.

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