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Comment on Open thread by steven

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David, what did katharine say when you asked her for her error bars and other sources of data?


Comment on Open thread by RACookPE1978

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Why look at the Arctic ice extents at all?

Right now, early October near the equinox of equal top-of-atmosphere on both poles, the edge of the rapidly increasing Antarctic sea ice at 58-59 south latitude is reflecting 5 times the solar energy that hits the Arctic sea ice at its minimum at 78-80 degrees north.

In June this year, the “excess” Antarctic sea ice was 2.5 million sq kilometers. That is just the “excess” Antarctic sea ice. To put it in perspective, the “excess” Antarctic sea this year was as large as the entire ice cap covering Greenland, and was at the same latitude as Greenland. Even today, the “excess” Antarctic sea ice is the size of Hudson’s Bay. At at the same latitude.

If all of Greenland had melted, would the world’s CAGW publishing community notice? So, when Greenland is doubled, why did they ignore the increase?

In fact, EVERY day between early-Sept through late March, the Antarctic sea ice receives more sunlight than the Arctic, and that sunlight is received when the Antarctic is getting hit with the years highest TOA solar radiation levels. In June and July, when the Arctic sun is higher, the top of atmosphere radiation is 7 percent lower!

Comment on Evidence of deep ocean cooling? by PA

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I don’t understand the big food fight over CO2.

Any energy absorbed by CO2 will be reradiated in a random direction regardless of whether the energy is passed to O2 or N2 or not.

Effectively it will look like an increase in “back radiation” anyway.

Comment on Open thread by RACookPE1978

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Correction: June Antarctic sea ice excess was 2.05 million sq kilometers, not 2.50 million square kilometers. Greenland covers 2.16 million sq kilometers.

Comment on Open thread by angech

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David Appell (@davidappell) | October 8,
And yet, even without an El Nino, 2014 may well be the warmest year on record.How to understand this?

Using Appell logic if it had been an El Nino year it would have been a reason for being the hottest, yes?
It was nearly an El Nino year with high pacific temps so this would still be the reason, yes?
Why it was hot in the pacific is simple, not as many clouds, so less albedo so hotter year.

Steven Mosher | October 8,

C02 increased. The temperature increased. That is evidence FOR not evidence AGAINST. true

Next question: How strong is the evidence? here the question gets complicated. true

AGW tells us this.
If you increase C02 and hold everything else constant then the temperature of the planet will increase. Problem? From 1979 to present everything else has not been held constant. very true

One thing we do know. There is no explanation of the warming, no physics explanation, that does not include C02

try Mosherite
not as many clouds, so less albedo, so hotter year.
Clouds is just one of a number of explanations

Comment on Open thread by tomjtx

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Just saw your last post. Go to the apple symbol in the upper left corner of your mac. Click on software update. That will put you in the Mac app store.
Click on the search window in the upper right corner of the Mac app store then type in VPN then tap return on your keyboard. That should bring up many VPN apps. It could be that China blocks the app store or at least some of it’s apps. I’ll check with some of my Chinese friends.

As a professor of classical guitar I fully sympathize with computer difficulty. I had a steep learning curve:-)

Comment on Open thread by Peter Lang

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ianl8888

Thanks. Realities bites. But only for those who have an open mind.

Comment on Open thread by Wagathon

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What global warming? Alaska is headed for an ice age as scientists report state’s steady temperature decline

– Since 2000, temperatures in Alaska have dropped by 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit

– Scientists reviewed weather reports from 20 climate stations operated by the National Weather Service located across Alaska

– 19 of the 20 weather stations reported falling temperatures

– An ocean phenomenon has disrupted a storm regulating system thus allowing cold winter storms to linger longer and bring a deep chill

– Local residents have noticed the colder temps but say its no big deal since they are already bundled up for 20-below zero temperatures

By Daily Mail Reporter

Published: 13:42 EST, 2 January 2013


Comment on Open thread by Rob Ellison

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Why the Arctic? Because of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. The key to glacial/interglacial transitions.

Comment on Open thread by Faustino

Comment on Open thread by D o u g  C o t t o n  

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Rob Ellison’s “key to glacial/interglacial transitions” is far more likely to be related to cyclic variations of solar intensity which can be shown to have periodicity of about 100,000 years, similar to the glacial periodicity. This is due to Jupiter’s gravity affecting the eccentricity of Earth’s orbit, leading to variation in the annual mean distance of between the Sun and Earth, and thus affecting the insolation in proportion to the inverse of the square of that distance.

Comment on Evidence of deep ocean cooling? by Rob Ellison

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All you need is extra CO2 in the atmosphere and the rest follows.

Comment on Open thread by curryja

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thx, but unfortunately when i click on software update, it searches for updates to my current software. When i search on bing for mac app store vpn, this also doesn’t turn up anything useful, just some pay sites (a few of which i tried but didn’t work)

Comment on Open thread by PA

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I’m not sure you are familiar with what a glacier is…

Glaciers gradually flow down hill. All this glacial flow scours the underlying rock.

http://books.google.com/books?id=tl2oKpXE0cMC&pg=PA528&lpg=PA528&dq=extent+of+olympic+mountain+glacier+holocene&source=bl&ots=yoa_4x-0iO&sig=I9X6514jpTKf7VOzr-ojLLu7HZs&hl=en&sa=X&ei=hQw2VPTkMo-myATMuIKoCg&ved=0CB4Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=extent%20of%20olympic%20mountain%20glacier%20holocene&f=false

Alaskan glaciers reached greatest extent in the LIA. Olympic Mountain range glaciers expanded from the 13th century until 1890 (the book says 20th century but the park service says 1890.)

So if you look around where the Olympic mountain range glaciers ended in 1890 you will find your trash pile.

Comment on Open thread by Steven Mosher

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“try Mosherite
not as many clouds, so less albedo, so hotter year.
Clouds is just one of a number of explanations”

wrong. to count as an explanation you actually need good data.
none of your explanations have that.
Second, you need to be able to QUANTIFY not just arm wave


Comment on Open thread by curryja

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managed to get into the app store and find some VPN. however i don’t have an apple id, and you can’t sign up for one from china (blocked); i tried my iPhone also. I never bothered with apps; my needs are simple – google and twitter.

Comment on Open thread by Joshua

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Don’t know if you’ve already tried it or if you can get it to work in China, but I used “Strong VPN” from Europe and it worked extremely well.

Comment on Open thread by stevepostrel

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Segrest has surely seen report after report on the baleful effects of sticking windmills and solar PV onto the U.S. grid–harms that are already occurring even at the relatively modest levels of wind and solar to date. You can keep piling these things on but one of two things must then happen: 1) Huge, costly investments in backup fossil power capacity or 2) Big decreases in grid reliability.

There is a search on for someplace in the world where a wind and solar power subsidy program hasn’t been a fiasco. But Germany isn’t going to be a good refuge of the imagination because it turns out that the basic principles of electricity generation and distribution work just the same way there as everywhere else–points 1) and 2) above can’t be escaped. The Germans have chosen 1) and are clobbering their consumers with the highest rates in Europe; they are burning MORE coal than they used to and have not reduced their CO2 emissions in the last couple of years even with sluggish economic growth. Here are three readable sources in increasing order of sympathy with renewables:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/9559656/Germanys-wind-power-chaos-should-be-a-warning-to-the-UK.html

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21587782-europes-electricity-providers-face-existential-threat-how-lose-half-trillion-euros

http://theenergycollective.com/robertwilson190/335806/germany-shows-renewable-energy-has-failed-and-other-strange-ideas

Comment on Challenging the 2 degree target by classestodegrees.com

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Gօod answers іn return of this issue with real arguments and tellin everything onn the topic of that.

Comment on Open thread by Dave Peters

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tony b — I am having difficulty returning to some of your material on very early thermometers. Thanks.

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