Jose gets my vote (I know we’re not voting). Anyone who can say “we don’t know” is a climate hero for the simple reason, we don’t know. Give that man a grant!
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by dp
↧
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by vukcevic
Equatorial region is affected by solar activity between aprox + or –10 degrees latitudes, regardless of the time of the year. Equatorial ‘electro-jet’ is the electrical current powered by charged solar particles trapped by the Earths magnetic and moves from east to west, following the Earth’s magnetic equator. Its strength and latitude depends on the strength of the solar activity. In the last 2-3 years NASA observed electrical discharges from the equatorial storm clouds into the electro-jet, however reverse has not been observed, but from theoretical point of view it is just as likely. If an effect on the climate is found it would have ~22 rather than 11 year periodicity.
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by JeffN
Rud, read the articles. The alleged unique thing about what they’ve got is it’s size- it’s small. This is the reason Aviation Week wrote about it- it’s reviving the idea of nuclear shipping and even airplanes.
I’ve not doubt he’s playing fast and loose with the “what if” for his forecast, but if you assume a day where aviation and shipping consume no oil, it will have an impact on your price forecast. One that i believe will just be gobbled up by cars in China, but that’s another story.
PA – screw Mars, give me a CDC that has any interest in Ebola and other infectious diseases.
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by Ulric Lyons
Geoff, I agree that this minimum will be short, though I think you may be surprised how cold it turns regionally through the next decade. The best heliocentric analogues for the short term planetary ordering of the solar signal, for the years 1836 to 1845 on CET, average at only 0.01°C warmer than the average of the coldest years in Dalton (1807-1817). And that was through a much larger sunspot cycle (SC8). That series of configurations repeats 179.05yrs later with little discrepancy, from late 2015 to 2024, which is right in the window where the coldest part of this minimum was expected to be anyway, i.e. between the sunspot maxima of the first two weak cycles, e.g. like 1807-1817 and 1885-1895.
There is only scant information from Silverman on Aurora in the 1836 to 1845 cold period, it does though note a lack of sightings in 1838, which had the coldest winter of the period, known as Murphy’s winter. That repeats early 2017.
On Maunder type grand minima, I am confident that I have identified a significant planetary progression*. Whereby a regular pattern breaks down for periods of 150-250 years, which coincide with the dominant cold periods in the last 6000 yrs. The interval between the Dark Ages and LIA periods is unusually long, many are around 800 yrs apart, and some around 400-500 yrs apart. In fact the variance in their frequency cycles roughly on the 4627yr grand planetary cycle. That analogue, and the next plotted break down*, indicates a LIA type sequence through the next 200 yrs, with extended and deep solar minima from the 2090’s, and from around 2200. Using the 4627yr return as a paleo’ analogue, around 2500 BC shows widespread desiccation in many regions, and around 2400 BC, widespread social collapse due to climatic deterioration. So I’m of the opinion that this solar minimum is a dress rehearsal for the really nasty ones that are following.
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by rls
Would the jet theoretically influence the earth’s magnetic field?
↧
↧
Comment on Ethics of communicating scientific uncertainty by Rob Ellison
‘Thermal conduction in gases can be analyzed within the framework of kinetic gas theory, which you probably learned about in your freshmen or physical chemistry classes. In this theory, we assume all molecules to be identical, non-interacting, rigid spheres of given diameter and mass and moving randomly with a mean velocity v. The molecules move about in the gas and collide (like in the simulation applet). They may transfer energy between different regions of the gas if there are temperature gradients. Consider mentally dividing the gas into layers. The net flux of energy between two adjacent layers is assumed to be proportional to the energy gradient
where ρ is the energy density, which equals nT – n is the molecular density and T is the temperature. The proportionality constant turns out to be KbvL/2, where L is the mean free path between molecular collisions and Kb is the Boltzmann’s constant. Combining these results with Fourier’s law yields the result that the thermal conductivity is KbvLn/2 for an ideal gas.’
http://zeolites.cqe.northwestern.edu/Module/heattrans.html
Temperature is the result of heat transfer to – say – a thermocouple. The transfer is dependent on energy density.
The extreme dedication to wrong ideas based on poorly understood physics is quite odd.
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by ATAndB
Okay, took another look at this. If tallbloke is referring to Total Solar Irradiance During the Holocene by Steinhilber, et. al. 2009, and Figure 2 of that report, then the error is in gray for the figure. However, not sure about where the VEJ and Spin Orbit Coupling is coming from, or its error, and not sure which data is which on the graph given here, or what happened to the error (it is not obvious even if you blow up the above graph versus the graph in the report where it is). Maybe the gray makes the graph cluttered so it was eliminated?
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by Hans Erren
Cycle 24 is even weaker than 20!
↧
Comment on Myths and realities of renewable energy by Peter Lang
Stephen Segrest.
Engineering Reply to Peter Lang:
That’s not an engineering reply. It’s an ideologue’s argument in support his beliefs. And it’s loaded with the signs of intellectual dishonesty. This is not consistent with the standards normally aspired to by engineers.
↧
↧
Comment on Book publishing in the 21st century by Jonathan Jones
I received advances against royalties for both my textbooks, but relatively small in each case – roughly equivalent to the royalties on the first 500 copies. One was with OUP and one with CUP. On the whole I have found CUP easier to deal with. Neither publisher contributed a lot, but they both contributed much more than journal publishers do.
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by Mark Silbert
OK, then let me re-characterize what I think the IPCC is saying:
…….the effect of the sun is negligible compared to the effect of CO2.
I believe this is pretty much what Dr. Yang said at the conference in Houston that Judith attended.
↧
Comment on Climate Dialogue: influence of the sun on climate by PMHinSC
Schrodinger’s Cat | October 28, 2014 at 2:18 pm | Reply
“There is some evidence that periods of warming are associated with several high activity, relatively frequent solar cycles while periods of cooling relate to a number of consecutive cycles with low solar activity and longer cycle duration…. The changes could be subtle, but integrated over several solar cycles, the result in terms of sea surface temperatures could be significant.”
Nicely articulated analysis. The problem of course is that the solar cycle “evidence” consists of data showing correlation with insufficient physics to prove causation. Those who champion AGW have the opposite problem: they claim physics, which is known to be incomplete (e.g. water vapor, ocean interface, carbon cycle, etc.), showing causation with no supporting data. An interesting academic exercise in an immature field of science that is far from ready for the world stage.
↧
Comment on Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips by petebonk
Isn’t the final line in Orwell’s “1984” “He loved Big Brother”.
↧
↧
Comment on Book publishing in the 21st century by stevepostrel
Green stuff going back to E.F. Schumacher has had a huge popular following for decades. In the 1970s, Paul Ehrlich sold about a zillion copies of The Population Bomb. John Maddox’s (former editor of Nature) The Doomsday Syndrome, criticizing these eco-porn disaster books, probably got less than 10% of the sales, even though just about everything he said back then turned out to be right. FOMD’s logic tells us that Fifty Shades of Gray is the greatest piece of literature of our lifetimes. For that matter, Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin sell millions of books, so they must be right. God help us, there are even people out there (other than lobbyists and other professionals) who actually buy and may even read the pap generated by politicians in their books. Isn’t this what Bacon called the Idol of the Marketplace fallacy?
There used to be a slogan: “Eat s***. Ten billion flies can’t be wrong.”
↧
Comment on Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips by Danny Thomas
Ah. You had to go there. Now I’ve got something else to be pre-anxious about and that calls for more medicine.
↧
Comment on Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips by A fan of *MORE* discourse
DocMartyn condemns “FOMD’s ilk”
LoL yep, we market-skeptical ilk-brethren even have our own song!
We work to better ourselves and the rest of humanity!
Resistance is futile, DocMartyn!
![\scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}](http://s0.wp.com/latex.php?latex=%5Cscriptstyle%5Crule%5B2.25ex%5D%7B0.01pt%7D%7B0.01pt%7D%5C%2C%5Cboldsymbol%7B%5Coverset%7B%5Cscriptstyle%5Ccirc%5Cwedge%5Ccirc%7D%7B%5Csmile%7D%5C%2C%5Cheartsuit%5C%2C%7B%5Cdisplaystyle%5Ctext%7B%5Cbfseries%21%21%21%7D%7D%5C%2C%5Cheartsuit%5C%2C%5Coverset%7B%5Cscriptstyle%5Ccirc%5Cwedge%5Ccirc%7D%7B%5Csmile%7D%7D%5C+%5Crule%5B-0.25ex%5D%7B0.01pt%7D%7B0.01pt%7D&bg=bbffcc&fg=0055ff&s=2 "\scriptstyle\rule[2.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}\,\boldsymbol{\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}\,\heartsuit\,{\displaystyle\text{\bfseries!!!}}\,\heartsuit\,\overset{\scriptstyle\circ\wedge\circ}{\smile}}\ \rule[-0.25ex]{0.01pt}{0.01pt}")
↧
Comment on Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips by Dick Hertz
We’ll be better of when we are ruled by an autonomous collective
↧
↧
Comment on Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips by Dick Hertz
Let it all out Joshua, you’ll feel better after a good cry.
↧
Comment on Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: Climate trauma survival tips by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2
I think he is a volunteer at the pre-traumatic stress clinic near Houston.
↧
Comment on Book publishing in the 21st century by JustinWonder
Agreed. Strange that patents last 20 years but copyrights last 70.
↧
More Pages to Explore .....
