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Comment on Energy policy discussion thread by WebHubTelescope

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Lynch can’t deal with the situation and will keep moving the goalposts. His big claim years ago was that reserve growth would occur. That would mean that a reservoir producing crude would continue to grow and produce more crude past the anticipated expiration date. Now he wants to redefine his original claims by suggesting that extremely low-grade sources of fossil fuel needing energy intensive extraction techniques will provide the reserves.

That’s apples and oranges. You start out with a big juicy apple and when that goes down to the core, you switch to eating the orange rind. Note the bait and switch. Lynch and Yergin have everyone believing that the orange rind is the best part of the apple. Most sane people stand back and just marvel at the audacity of the claims.

The topic of peak oil was always about preparing to adjust to alternatives when finite resources of crude started to get too expensive. The concept is intuitively obvious but psychologically demoralizing. It means we have to start mitigating and adapting to a new paradigm. Lynch was wrong and Hubbert was right.


Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by A physicist

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Yes, that set me wondering if perhaps the Buffalo NY snow effect is now being seen on a global scale? Because as Google Earth shows us, lakes, rivers, and bogs are abundant in Canada and Siberia … are they staying unfrozen longer, similar to the Great Lakes?

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by David Wojick

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Satellites measure and integrate snow mass? This I have to see.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by curryja

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Satellites do snow extent very easily; there are also satellite-derived data sets on snow water equivalent

Comment on Week in review 3/2/12 by hro001

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The e-mails were available from the set uploaded to the RC servers on the 17th (a link to which was posted on ClimateAudit). Even if they were never made available anywhere else after that point, Mann’s statement would still be justified. It doesn’t matter when the files were available through WUWT or Jeff Id’s blog.

If that’s the only other error you can point to, you have no significant basis for saying Mann was wrong.

Brandon, we only have Gavin Schmidt’s unsubstantiated – and ever-changing – story about this alleged “upload” to RC on the 17th – and no evidence of which I’m aware that anyone had even noticed the link on Climate Audit (let alone “downloaded” from RC via that link) until after the emails became public knowledge.

Apart from the fact that such an alleged “upload” made (and still makes) absolutely no sense – and could well have jeopardized the “mission” of “The Saint” (as I prefer to call “FOIA”) – it was completely unnecessary.

And does it not seem in the least bit odd that Schmidt (and/or Mann) did not report this alleged “hack” for the purpose of “uploading” to the appropriate authorities? Or that despite their known willing media “partners”, they maintained “radio silence” – instead of trumpeting to the world this “evidence” of such a dastardly deed by the evil skeptics. complete with great and glorious “graphics” from the RC (and/or their ISP)’s server logs? Talk about a “hockey-stick” with indisputable data to support it!

Surely if events had transpired as Mann now claims, this would amount to the Greatest (and, for once, “true”) Story Never Told about the Evil Skeptics. It was a perfect PR opportunity missed, was it not?

If one accepts Mann’s “reconstruction” of the details of Nov. 17/09, then one can only conclude that Schmidt must have been utterly dishonest in his E-mail to Lucia on Nov. 19. Unless it was Mann who discovered the alleged “upload” on the 17th – and he failed to advise Schmidt. In which case, neither Schmidt’s Nov. 20 “official story” nor his Nov. 23 “reconstruction” can be believed.

YMMV, but in light of their respective words – which is the only “evidence” we have – I fail to see how their accounts can both be correct. Not to mention that Mann’s claim of “thousands” of emails is far from accurate.

Perhaps “wrong” may have been a poor choice of words on Mosher’s part; but at the very least, Mann’s opening paragraph is a deliberately deceptive conflation. And that, IMHO, is probably far worse than “wrong”, It does, however, put him well on the way to becoming the David Irving of climate science!

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by DocMartyn

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Judy, do you think the moving of most sooty/sulfurous heavy industry from Western Europe to SEA/China is going to alter snow fall trends?

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Fred from Canuckistan

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You had best look at the implications of increasing Arctic ice . . . the regular 30+ year Arctic Ice Pulse, the one that peaked in the late 1970′s and waned since then is now quickly turning around to the rapid arctic ice accumulation period.

Really.

Comment on Week in review 3/2/12 by David Wojick

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Owen. UAH shows no warming from the beginning (1978) until 1997. Then we had the big ENSO which of course has no trend. Then from 2001 until now there is also no warming, but this flat period is higher than the prior flat period. This is a one shot step function, not 30 years of warming. Moreover there is no provision for such a step in AGW. I think UAH falsifies AGW.


Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by curryja

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The impact of soot and pollution on precip is complex. There is a field experiment in the next year to look at the impact of the asian brown cloud on monsoon rains. The impact on snowfall would be more complex and we are in early days of understanding the microphysical impacts of soot/pollution on snowfall. This kind of problem is right up my alley, actually. But my field experiment days are over, relying on theoretical analyses with my Russian colleague Vitaly Khvorostyanov
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/1151/2012/acp-12-1151-2012.html

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Robert

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There are fast positive and negative feedbacks all through the system.

Warm Arctic winters, for example, are degrading the ozone over the Arctic, which leads to greater heat loss. The open sea, obviously, absorbs more solar energy than the ice. Positive feedback. The glacier ice exposed by early-season melting is darker and absorbs more solar energy. Positive. There are both positive and negative cloud feedbacks.

In total there are hundreds if not thousands of feedbacks, and if you think you can eyeball one hypothesized negative feedback and proclaim victory over “Al Gore, Monbiot, Revkin, Romm, et. al” and their “dim imaginings” you are deluding yourself.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by curryja

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Yes there is a substantial difference. I now have the published version of the paper posted (with figures); this seems to be allowed by PNAS copyright policy.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Joe's World

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Judith,

What is very interesting in studying velocity and rotation is the parameters that can be incorporated or taken away.
An active sun spews out a great deal of material that our atmosphere can pick up passing through which would add density to it for protection. But also too more density would be less heat actually reaching the planets surface.
A weak sun activity means that our atmosphere is still losing mass which would loose insulation value to the colder vacuum of space which is closest at the poles to the density at the equator.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Robert

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“the reference point for the start of the alarming decline of arctic sea ice, about the time when we were awash with warnings about the imminent ice age?”

No, we were never “awash with warnings about the imminent ice age.” That’s a bit of propaganda the denialists cooked up long after. SkS has a post, I believe:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm

Comment on Lindzen’s Seminar at the House of Commons by John Kosowski

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Hey Martin,
I was under the impression that CO2 levels were 400ppm and above 3 million years ago in the Pliocene. Did the hockey team revise that as well?

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Herman Alexander Pope

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This study was based on short term data because of the fantastic quality of the short term data. The ice core data for the past 800k years does support this study. Give them a little time to tie it all together. This theory was developed over 50 years ago by Ewing and Donn, before much quality data was developed. There is plenty of data. This is a new era in Climate Science. CO2 will soon be put out in the cold. It does not matter if CO2 can do major warming. The Open Arctic Ice Machine can keep a lid on temperature in the face of all the other forcing.


Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by curryja

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Agnostic, look at figure 1 from the paper. There is nothing there to infer anything quantitatively about NH total snow cover, which is what Willis analyzed. Most notably, our analysis clearly says nothing about any change in large regions of Russia and Canada. The moisture source from the open water in the arctic ocean is secondary to the atmospheric circulation change.

In the conclusion, the words used are “The results of this study add to an increasing body of evidence . . .” are the appropriate words in my opinion. The “we conclude” statement in the abstract (where word numbers are limited) comes across a bit strong, but I think the more thorough statements in the the Discussion are appropriate. Again, some of these words are not mine such as “load the dice”.

IMO the significance of this paper is in understanding seasonal snowfall variability, which is a goal of seasonal forecasting.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Robert

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From the blog rules: <blockquote>Respond to the argument, not to the person. <b>What another participant stated on another blog in another context should not be used to discredit or otherwise challenge the participant.</b> Changing your mind in response to new evidence and arguments is valued here.</blockquote> So while I'm sure Chris is willing to have it out, it's explicitly not what this blog is about. So before you play teacher's pet and try snitching on Chris to play up to our host, you might want to consider that she has very specifically asked us not to do that.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Robert

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Agnostic

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“Willis seems to be directed against claims that are not made in the paper as the paper refers always to regional changes in snowfall”

I actually I noted that myself and I have asked Willis to clarify in comments there. The paper actually talks about total snowfall, not extent and it does point out that it is autumn sea ice extent that is the important factor, whereas Willis has looked at total annual sea ice area and snow extent as opposed to total fall.

I also did notice that the body of the article included uncertainty that and appropriate equivocations, but the abstract does not.

Comment on Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall by Herman Alexander Pope

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The temperature of Earth for the last 600 million years supports this study. There is an upper limit that Earth Temperature pushed against and could not cross. That limit is there because Earth is blessed with a lot of ice and water. That set point is established by the temperature that melts Arctic sea ice and that is what turns on the Arctic Ocean Effect Snow Monster

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