None of this uses models.
Of course it uses models. Maybe not GCM’s…
Comment on Week in review by AK
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Comment on Week in review by Jim D
Matthew Marler, we don’t need to worry about Africa and India. They are only burning at about 10% the per capita rate of advanced countries, and 20% of the global average, so they don’t need to reduce, or it would have very little effect even if they increased a bit, assuming they even prefer coal. Much more effective on the global scale is for the advanced countries to cut back by 30-50% in their per capita CO2.
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Comment on Week in review by Steven Mosher
“There are many interesting questions to research. It can be interesting to note which questions don’t get researched. It’s also possible to construct conspiracy theories by extrapolating about counterfactuals from those questions.”
actually when studying the funding effect in health science looking at how corporate science is biased, one doesnt have to suppose a conspiracy.
I would not say there is a conspiracy. Quite the opposite. It’s quite normal
and expected to find the same funding effect across all sciences. No conspiracy required. When you fund research to find the opposite.. well, you find the opposite. Not in all cases of course, but in enough cases for one to form a rational and justified expectation.
Any researcher in their field should have known this.
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Comment on Week in review by Steven Mosher
““The” funding effect. So there’s only one funding effect – and it just happens to be one that confirm’s steven’s biases as well as his interest in not discussing what the study found.
Curious, that.”
no there is more than one funding effect.
What the study found was accurate boring and well known, but they misrepresent what they did.
They didnt, for example, present people with science.
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Comment on Week in review by Jim D
AK, if I was to say Lewis and Curry used a model, people would complain. They seem to advertize it as observations.
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Comment on Week in review by Joshua
Still not discussing their findings?
Curious, that.
Lots o’ squirrels in these here parts.
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Comment on Week in review by The Global Warming Scam Is Being Exposed - Page 7 - Christian Forums
[…] and summary of this past week related to Global Warming: Its a scam. Week in review | Climate Etc. __________________ Galatians 5:17 When did this begin? Genesis […]
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Comment on Week in review by Jim D
The earth’s temperature is about 288 K, so a 1% increase is about 2.88 C. This coincidentally is similar to the expected equilibrium change in response to a 1% change in forcing 3.7 W/m2 over 340 W/m2. I am not sure where you went wrong.
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Comment on Bertrand Russell’s 10 commandments by Mnestheus
The contrarian position on climate modeling more resembles<a href="http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2014/10/well-at-least-its-change-from.html" rel="nofollow"> Lovecraft's 1928 summary</a> than Russell's 1951 exegesis
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Comment on Week in review by jim2
From the article:
U.S. crude ended the session 74 cents higher at $78.65 a barrel, having dropped from a high above $107 five months ago.
Brent crude futures were last up 0.7 percent at $83 a barrel. The benchmark hit a four-year intraday low of $81.63 on Wednesday, down from a high above $115 in June.
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Comment on More renewables? Watch out for the Duck Curve by Sparrow
Planning Engineer,
Before this thread grows cold I just wanted your opinion of ONCOR’s decision to install 5,000 megawatts of batteries on the Texas grid. They are asking permission to spend 5.2 billion dollars over the next few years to deploy these batteries and they claim it will actually save consumers money on their electric bills. What I find most interesting about their proposal is that a significant amount storage will be deployed in residential and light industrial settings. Micro grids in Texas? Say it ain’t so!
Fun Fact: The average Texas residential power bill is $179.66 a month. That sounds a bit high but I wouldn’t know since I haven’t had an electric bill since I installed my solar panels. In fact I have a $380 credit on my electric bill since I have generated over 3 megawatts excess electricity onto the grid so far.
I guess it’s a safe bet that you don’t work for ONCOR or this would have been rejected based on your outstanding critique of the inefficiencies of renewable energy storage. Perhaps you could offer your analysis and expertise to our elected officials like Ted Cruz and Louie Gohmert and they could pass a law to prevent this from happening.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20141108-oncor-proposes-giant-leap-for-grid-batteries.ece
PS: Be sure to mention Energy Futures Holdings LLC, the 40+ billion dollar bankruptcy of TXU (former parent company of ONCOR) and the utter lack of oversight these politicians demonstrated when they allowed Wall St. to make huge leveraged bets on the Texas electricity consumer.
http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2014/10/efh_bankruptcy_bonuses.php
Jack Smith
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Comment on Week in review by jim2
Although Ban is trying to show the EIA has better EUR numbers than the companies, it seems to be the other way round.
From the article:
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Needless to say that the industry claims and the EIA estimates cannot both be right. It is probable that neither one is right and the truth lies somewhere in-between. But what we do know based on Shell’s performance in Dimmit county is that it reflects the EIA data more closely, given the size of the loss it took.
According to the Texas Railroad Commision, there were 7,600 wells drilled in Dimmit county as of May, 2014, of which about 3,500 were drilled since the beginning of 2010 when hydraulic fracturing took off in the field. Production in the same month totaled 2,47 million barrels of oil and about 4.55 million barrels of oil equivalent in gas, for a total of 7 million barrels of oil equivalent. Just five years ago, production in Dimmit county was less than one tenth of the current level. A rough estimate of cumulative production to the end of May, 2014, from the beginning of 2010 comes out to just under 400 million barrels. I decided to adjust that number downwards by 10% in order to account for production from wells drilled before 2010. Production per well from all wells drilled from the beginning of 2010, till May, 2014 comes out to about 103,000 barrels of oil equivalent. Given that most shale oil wells produce about 35-50% (I will explain this number later) of their potential during the first two years, and the average age of all wells drilled since 2010 is about two years, it is unlikely that average EUR in Dimmit county will ever surpass 200,000-300,000 barrels of oil equivalent for these particular wells.
…
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Comment on Week in review by AK
AK, if I was to say Lewis and Curry used a model, people would complain.
What is that to me?
Seriously, it’s models all the way down. The only thing physically real is patterns of neural activity, and even there the information that informs our perceptions and responses constitutes models.
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Comment on More renewables? Watch out for the Duck Curve by jim2
The proof is in the pudding, as they say. The transmission company seems to believe they should get the power to charge the batteries for free. I don’t believe the generators will see it that way.
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Comment on Week in review by Jim D
AK, some people’s braincells fire in such a way to look for reasons things can’t be connected, even when basic science predicts it and their visual cortex indicates that they are, such as
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Comment on Week in review by AK
AK, some people’s braincells fire in such a way to look for reasons things can’t be connected [...]
And some people’s braincells fire in such a way to look for reasons things must be connected…
But anybody using a scientific approach will recognize that such connections must be treated as hypothetical, with more or less probability, along with recognition that the causation could go either way, or neither (when both are effects of a different cause).
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Comment on More renewables? Watch out for the Duck Curve by Peter Lang
Jack Smith,
Are you paying your fair share of the costs of transmission, distribution and back up?
if you think you are, how do you know you are?
Do you know how much you should be paying for being connected to the grid or even for living in an area where grid power is supplied?
What are those costs?
You can get an idea of what they are in Australia and in capital cities like Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane from these:
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Comment on Week in review by aaron
Danny, I meant a decrease in the emissions growth rate. We seem to be approaching a linear growth rate.
Sinks are growing. With emissions rates growing, sinks have grown so much that concentrations growth is almost linear.
I would think it is largely an increase in biomass, but not primarily vegetation. Think of the oceans, how much old plant growth is there? I imagine much is consumed by animals.
I have no idea what republicans might think.
I would think reducing barriers to nuclear and hydro power (this would also free up resources for the developing world) and civil engineering projects to protect against weather would be welcome by most people. Infrastructure to move resources to deal with disasters. Excess capacity, spare equipments and parts to rebuild after disasters…
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Comment on Week in review by Tom Fuller
Regarding the excerpt from the Rokiek piece, Joshua, how many climate scientists have you posed your question to?
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Comment on Week in review by Tom Fuller
mote, beam.
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