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Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

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“Any informed comments on these issues rather than TOBS. Are this extensive discussions about TOBS a diversion away from the real issues?
I for one would like to know.”

Yes. I can just relate my experience and Zeke has his perspective.

When I started working on this is 2007 there were several issues

1. Station drop out
2. Adjustments
3. UHI
4. Micro site.

Well, I plowed through number 1, zeke did as well, clear climate code, nick stokes did, people from both sides. In the beginning I was convinced that dropping stations had to have some impact. OPPS. zeke and nick and I wrote a post on it for WUWT.

Then I started to look at adjustments, SHAP, filenet TOBS ( the old stuff)
I was sure it was all hidden there. After plowing through and coming up empty handed.. what next ? UHI

UHI has been more difficult to handle. Zeke and I did some work together before Berkeley.. he’s done papers.. we joined berkeley and did more work.
We published a paper that said “no bias” ( effectively ). Well, Im still not happy with that result. I expected something. A couple of internet guys made good coments, one reviwer ( Ross ) also had a interesting argument.
So if you look at my blog you’ll find some projects I started to look at that problem yet again..

Microsite. Anthony is doing real work. He would not spend a lot of time on it unless there were some interesting results. His first effort was mixed results
His second effort ( over two years in the re-making .. zeke found a problem)
should be interesting.

Want to know what matters?

Look were people are willing to devote some effort. Years ago I pointed out some of this TOBS stuff to skeptics.. They didnt want to probe.. didnt wantto get the data.. hmm that tells me they really are NOT convinced that something is there.

I’ve dug in all four areas.. station drop out,, adjustments.. UHI.. micro site.

The only areas where the problems were tough and the answers uncertain was UHI and microsite. The only area were skeptics who respect their own time work is in those two areas.

basically.. more brains on those two problems please.. the other stuff is just a distraction.

ask evan where he thinks the gold is


Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

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“There are two independent phenomena which by default are supposed to have random effects.”

That is your theory.

Looking at the data….

Theory busted. please speak to mr feynman on your way out.

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

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No KTM the instructions say to reset after taking the temperature

Goddard is asserting that since he had a thermometer at age 7, therefore all observers must have reset it twice a day

The operators instructors guide specifies one reset.

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

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tony, there are stupid questions.

there is No magic date when a network becomes ‘reliable” as if that were a black and white decision.

as for vague questions about un specified records.. my answer is
it depends.

If you want to get involved in “old weather” there are protocols for transcribing. That work goes on. join as a volunteer

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Curious George

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Zeke; One “large non-random systemic bias: a change from afternoon to morning observation times,..” I ask again, could you please quantify it? Has it been measured? Calculated? Guessed?

Comment on Week in review by Lucifer

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I’m pretty sure you understand the intent that the
consensus rejection of plate techtonics was similar to the
consensus acceptance of phlogiston.

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Mi Cro

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Mosh,
In you attempts to find uhi, what was a station compared to to see if it was affected by uhi?
If you look for a year over year uhi, you might not find warming that survives winter, but how did you try to find it?

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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Curious,

Zeke posted that in July. The USHCN was picked by the Global Change Research Program in the 1980s to be the US climate baseline.


Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by John Vonderlin

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Steven,
You use the acronym OPPS above. What does that stand for? I assume you mean “oops” from its context here and in the other places you’ve previously used it. If so, consider my correcting you as just a small needed adjustment to get things more accurate, my own sort of TOBS adjustment, (Totally Obscure Badinage Spelling)

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by A. Voip

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Pick the ever-changing two important spots on the planet Earth, that are in line with the Sun. Each hour using GMT, when the time is correct take the two measurements at the same time(pro/anti), always in relationship with the Sun and the Earth. Used like a timing light; take the product of the two hourly values and do what you will with them… Post the results in the newspapers. After twenty years our satellite work will show the real global T trend. We would all know exactly what was happening around us on a daily basis, in an hourly format. It would be in a form that is understandable to everyone. Bullets are more accurate than the shotgun approach. I think. This method would be much less expensive and I feel would also provide a better product. If after twenty more years we can all see that this idea does not have legs… no problem there either, you could blame it all on me.
Just a thought but still going for the gold…

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Nickels

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The data must be adjusted to average, makes sense to me. Otherwise if would be like…. Well if you took everyones salary, averaged with out regards to degrees, experience, and then started trying to find groups discriminated against….

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by GaryM

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Kneel63

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“Satellite data is adjusted a lot more the surface data, unfortunately.”

The difference being, satellite data is adjusted to match a real thermometer at (as as near as physically practical) the point the satellite is measuring. IOW, it is more accurate to say the satellite data is calibrated, vs surface data being adjusted (based on statistical data from thousands of sites at thousands of locations). Yes, this is repeated for many locations, but for satellite data outliers are investigated and reasons for them discovered. For surface data, it’s just adjusted based on bulk statistics. I know which is more likely to be “correct”!

Comment on Week in review by A fan of *MORE* discourse

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Wegener’s heroic personal example and the history of Wegener’s techtonicphysics ideas equally are worthy of study by Climate Etc readers!

Summary Wegener’s 1912 hypothesis of plate techtonics was accepted by the scientific community within four decades (except for a diminishing cadre of contrarians). And similarly, von Neumann’s 1955 hypothesis of anthropogenic climate change was accepted by the scientific community within four decades (except for a diminishing cadre of contrarians).

Good on `yah, Alfred Wegener!

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Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

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Micro.

the vast majority of the work operates according to the skeptical premise.

A) UHI infects the long term global average
B) If you remove urban stations the trend will go down.

So. define urban and rural and test this.

Other approaches:

Compare a urban only network with a rural only network

Compare PAIRS of stations. rural versus urban.

so you can do any number of variations on these.
compare tmax, tmin, tave. compare by season. ect ect etc.

Or take a Ross Mckittrick regression style approach

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by EdG

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Steven Mosher | February 23, 2015 at 5:56 pm |

Agnostic.

have you noticed that folks with good questions address Zeke and people who just want to fight.. ask me.

wink.

————–

Yes, well perhaps that is because Zeke actually can answer good questions with some degree of clarity.

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by Steven Mosher

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“Satellites adjust one known instrument, as opposed to millions and millions of historical surface adjustments of data points which NCDC knows almost nothing about”

stuck on stupid, goddard is

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0426%282000%29017%3C1153%3AMTTDCA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Goddard: Satellites adjust one know instrument
Spencer:

“Scientists face many challenges when attempting to produce data with long-term stability from sequentially launched, polar-orbiting satellites whose original missions were to support operational forecasting. This paper describes the completely revised adjustments to the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) deep-layer tropospheric temperature products first reported in Spencer and Christy (1990). These data originate from nine different satellites, the first being launched in late 1978, and their periods of operation varied from about a year (TIROS-N) to over six years (NOAA-11 and -12). The version presented here is termed version D, and is thus the third major revision to these datasets. For details on the background of the MSU data, the reader is referred to Spencer et al. (1990), Christy (1995), and Christy et al. (1998).”

“Version A of these products was constructed by a simple merging procedure in which biases were calculated and removed from the individual satellites (Spencer and Christy 1992a,b). We updated version A after discovering that the eastward drift of NOAA-11 over its 6-yr life span caused a spurious warming effect to develop due, as we believed, to the fact the satellite was sampling the earth at later times during the local diurnal cycle (version B, Christy et al. 1995). ”


Following the release of version C in mid-1996 there was the typical delay in the appearance of the published results (August 1998), during which we discovered a temporal component to the instrument body temperature effect (discussed later) that was interannual, not just intraannual as documented in version C. This effect appeared to introduce an artificial warming in the time series of both T2 and T2LT. Elsewhere, Wentz and Schabel (1998) discovered that the vertical height of the satellites was a critical parameter affecting T2LT and kindly shared their results with us before their paper was published (also August 1998) and just before our version C galley proofs were returned to the printers (thus it is mentioned but not applied to version C in Christy et al. 1998). Their important finding is that altitude losses of only 1 km cause artificial cooling in T2LT while having virtually no effect on T2. The accumulated downward fall of the satellites over the 1979–98 period was over 15 km, and thus became a rather substantial factor requiring attention. In addition, corrected NESDIS nonlinear calibration coefficients for NOAA-12 became available in this period (between release of version C and publication) and were needed for any further versions.

And look at all the complexity? 4000 equations!!! call tonyB

“In version D, presented here, we apply the new NESDIS calibration coefficients to NOAA-12 and then account for and remove the effects of orbit decay and the diurnal effect of orbit drift individually from the original satellite brightness temperatures (sections 2a and 2b). We finally calculate, by solving a system of over 4000 linear equations, the coefficients of the MSU’s instrument body temperature needed for each satellite to eliminate this spurious effect (section 2c). Relative to version C, the global impact of version D is characterized by a more negative trend for 1979–98 of T2″

“The basic problem of this research is to determine how to merge data from nine instruments to produce a useful time series of deep-layer atmospheric temperatures. In constructing the previous versions of the MSU data (A, B, and C) we relied exclusively on the observations obtained as two satellites monitored the earth simultaneously, that is, as a coorbiting pair, to adjust the data for errors. Corrections were applied which eliminated major differences between the various pairs (e.g., intersatellite difference trends and annual cycle perturbations; Christy et al. 1998). In general, when data differences between two satellites were found, a decision was made as to which satellite was correct and which was in error, based on local equatorial crossing time variations or other factors. Some aspects of the temperature differences (trend and annual cycle) of the one deemed in error were then removed, forcing a good (but somewhat contrived) match with the one deemed to be correct.”

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by KTM

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Zeke, what I’m saying is that as it is now the Tmin and Tmax are TOBS adjusted separately, averaged, then reported as a single average temperature anomaly series.

What if instead of doing that to use the raw Tmin to calculate the anomaly up until the change in reading time, then used the raw Tmax to calculate the anomaly after that, and spliced them together to report a single anomaly series? The unpolluted Tmin would capture the anomalies before the change, and the unpolluted Tmax would capture the anomalies after the change.

This would capture any changes over time to the climate of the station, without requiring any TOBS adjustments to be applied, and I think it would be a good reality check to see if the TOBS adjustments now being applied are proper.

Comment on Understanding Time of Observation Bias by stefanthedenier

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