For good measure my anomaly chart plotted at same scale as yours. I have simply converted each record in my spaghetti stack to an anomaly and taken the arithmetic mean to produce this average dT stack. When you average lots of flat lines, you get a flat line.
“Looks like your reverse Poe has backfired.”
Johsua, *sigh* what is one to do? You can only lead them to water.
Joshua,
Yes it’s me. Climate Etc. won’t let me change my handle now. I’m hoping my Badness still comes through, though.. ;)
Andrew
@john carpenter
Thank the deity for your reassurance.
I was having palpitations at the mere thought of it being half a degree warmer in December 2075. The idea that the snowdrops might come out a week early was quite terrifying.
And it is such a shame that homo sapiens is completely incapable of adapting to changed environments. Its a real wonder we ever ventured down from the trees.
Testing for a second time
Bad –
You can change your “public display name” by clicking on your profile link in the upper right hand corner.
“I believe that is “globally” regionally different products have different issues in different regions.”
yes, that is most likely going to be the case.
1. The different groups use different data.
2. the different groups use different methods.
All the methods aim at minimizing the error in their global overall prediction. Depending on how you grid ( or dont grid) whether you use a CAM method or RSM method, or Regression method you are going to get different etsimates for the local detail. Global methods dont aim at
get the local detail correct. They aim at minimizing the error of prediction.
every time you read the words “global average” remember that it’s a misnomer of sorts.
Dr. Curry: I agree with your summary; in particular “Maybe, but it depends on what is going on with the sun” and “substantial uncertainties”.
Concerning solar activity, it appears it is tracing the general path to a significant minimum. Although Dr. Lean has shown TSI to be substantially constant, she acknowledges large variation in UV and EUV. These short wavelengths are energetic, and have known effects on ozone and its decay. The energy goes somewhere. What are those effects?
Concerning uncertainty, until we have a good grasp of the effects of interaction, I think we have but little understanding of what happens when their effects combine and reinforce each other.
Further, we have evidence that cold affects mortality when vulnerable citizens must choose between heat and food (UK). Finally, we have seen that many government regulators have little respect for the effects of regulations upon citizens (U.S. taxes, economy and employment).
Conclusion: We should be very cautious about handing power to politically-directed regulators.
Not only is the the pause in global warming unexplained, but a descent from pause to decline is not eliminated. A roller coaster is analogous, but a least it is on tracks.
dont average temperatures. there are only highly specialized cases where doing so is valid. never do it.
Thanks, Joshie, I don’t even mind that you completely misinterpreted my comment, something for which you seem to have an amazing aptitude. In an ideal world, we all have to be good at something.
“The same principle exists for man made climate change. Based on the evidence as it currently exists, it just is not a valid scientific position to assert with certainty that human emissions have caused recent changes to the climate, and therefore the policy implications that stem from that.”
————————————
It’s worse because the is little evidence of catastrophe at all.
Even if man caused 3C warming, what is the problem?
The C of CAGW.
I have recently published a study on this subject.
Adjustments Multiply Warming at US CRN1 Stations
A study of US CRN1 stations, top-rated for their siting quality, shows that GHCN adjusted data produces warming trends several times larger than unadjusted data.
The full text and supporting excel workbooks are available here:
Dear Latimer,
Nothing you say contradicts what I said and your anecdata are duly noted, although you must have told me your life story about ten times already. I’d rather have Judy’s story about how and where her company gets computation done, and if you’re OK with this kind of modeling.
The bottom line is that privatizing profits requires freedom fighters like you and merchants of doubt like the Marshall Institute. I say doubt, but I could as well say uncertainty and fear. There’s even an acronym for the triumvirate.
From the linked article
“I ran a final check by comparing the raw Alice record with the raw records from stations around it, which as noted earlier is a good way of confirming that a record isn’t seriously distorted. Unfortunately there are no records close to Alice that are long enough to tell us anything,”
wrong.
this is an example of the old school GISS/CRU thinking, only long records are important. wrong.
short records can and do give you information about the reliability of longer records. One method that uses short records was in fact invented by a skeptic. So within 600 KM of Alice Springs there are around 30 other stations.
@ euanmearns | March 17, 2015 at 1:19 pm |
Relative to your “mostly flat” measurements in your first figure… One could easily use “Mikey’s Trick” to weight by a factor of 100 or more those records having a positive slope, and voila – this data would produce the desired hockey stick.
> Do you really want MILLIONS of people a year to die in squalor
But the poor:
“Note that I have since discovered that the GHCN V2 records are not “raw” but have been processed a little. ”
huh?
this has been known for some time. discussed on CA and by RomanM and me.
also see the work done on scribal records.
Hmmm:
@willard
If you discount the contributions to the IT industry from all the companies I mentioned .. plus a galaxy of other smaller private companies, then there really isn’t anything left to argue about. Maybe the teensy bit that’s left did indeed benefit from state intervention. But its so weeny as to be almost undetectable.
As to
‘The bottom line is that privatizing profits requires freedom fighters like you and merchants of doubt like the Marshall Institute. I say doubt, but I could as well say uncertainty and fear. There’s even an acronym for the triumvirate.’
I guess I’d better wait until Big Government produces a translation algorithm that can turn you remark into understandable English. Sadly, I can think of at least two reasons why it may be a long wait.
