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Comment on Temperature adjustments in Australia by Steven Mosher

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“His Northrop “commercial” work appears to be government contracting. His “Engineering” stint was clearly not as a professional engineer, but apparently as a manager.”

Lets see if I can help you guys unravel the mystery.

I entered Northwestern university as a Math and Physics major. in my 2nd year I switched to Philosophy and English and graduated top of my class with honors in both. I was accepted into UCLA on fellowship directly into the Phd program. My director was a former geology major and we shared a love of computers. At this time he and Vincent Dearing were two pioneers in applying computers in the humanities. For my dissertation I decided to write on Shannon information theory and Art.

This required me to audit statistics classes and programming classes.
The books that inspired me were

http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Measurement_of_Meaning.html?id=qk5qAAAAMAAJ

and JR Pierce

https://books.google.com/books?id=sEVCPgAACAAJ&dq=editions:e6cogiL5oCAC&hl=en&sa=X&ei=28cNVcDdE8XtoASb6IH4Cw&ved=0CCwQ6AEwAw

if you want to find out what I was working on I believe I’ve discussed it at Lucia’s long ago. Essentially it was applying Shannon’s concept of Entropy as a measure of stylistic variability.

Needless to say this was far too “mathy” for most folks in the department.
But it seemed to me that I could marry up the math side of my abilitiies with the interest in art.

At the same time I was also interested in the mind/body problem specifically I started to look at ways of using the computer to automatically generate text. This is known as NLG or natural language generation.

One summer my buddy asked me to be a summer intern at Northrop.
My first job was as an operations researcher in air combat modelling.
The training Northrop provided was astounding. The combat model I first worked on was a force level model which is basically just modelling air combat as a markov process.

From there I went on to man in the loop simulation. My responsibilities were creating models for Electrically Scanned Array radars, IR missiles,
and automated threat forces.

An automated threat is basically a piece of AI that operates a plane as a human would. That became my specialty and later I joined a small aerospace outfit to build up their simulation capability.

Like this

https://www.sbir.gov/sbirsearch/detail/153186

the work at eidetics in simulation and 3D graphics ( and a patent) got me a technical marketing job at Kubota. Their biggest question was how could an engineer do marketing. Hmm, well thats just the other half of the brain.

Anyway from there I focused entirely on marketing until I decided it was time to go back and do some technical stuff around audio and voice recognition, primarily for Mp3 players. had a hard time getting that accepted into the development but Got an unrelated patent there on intelligent shuffling of playlists.

After that I decided to get into mobile phones and switch back to pure marketing.. after a few years of that I decided to switch back again and started to learn R and write packages on temperature analysis. All of this of course requires either self study or online courses. Its not hard if you have the basic skills.

Today my 9-5 is operations research with a focus on
failure/warrently analysis, pricing, and most recently demand modelling using historical weather and short term weather forecasts.

So ya.. 9-5 I get paid to do modelling, math and statistics.

Its not that hard. neither is understanding the stats of historical weather.
heck, even a philosophy major can do it. BUT you have to sit down, read study take some course ask for help and do your homework.
Same as school except you dont have to work at the slow pace of dummies.


Comment on Week in review by willard (@nevaudit)

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Speaking of Senator McConnell’s urging:

Religiosity and participation in religious activities have been linked with decreased risky behavior. In the current research, we hypothesized that exposure to the concept of God can actually increase people’s willingness to engage in certain types of risks. Across seven studies, reminders of God increased risk taking in nonmoral domains. This effect was mediated by the perceived danger of a risky option and emerged more strongly among individuals who perceive God as a reliable source of safety and protection than among those who do not. Moreover, in an eighth study, when participants were first reminded of God and then took a risk that produced negative consequences (i.e., when divine protection failed to materialize), participants reported feeling more negatively toward God than did participants in the same situation who were not first reminded of God. This research contributes to an understanding of the divergent effects that distinct components of religion can exert on behavior.

http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/02/25/0956797614563108.abstract

Comment on Week in review by Don Monfort

Comment on Week in review by jim2

Comment on Week in review by willard (@nevaudit)

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> Willard, if you had any awareness of the business world you wouldn’t be asking for citations.

What’s on the table shows that “the more profitable/successful companies hire a lot of people and pay them well” is empty and mostly irrelevant, Don Don, which is unsurprising since you’re just using it as a reactionary slogan.

Here’s some more for you, since Denizens know how much you like minimum wage:

Giving the people who flip burgers, clean floors and stock grocery shelves a few dimes more an hour is not a handout. Offering working people some help on their insurance premiums does not promote dependence. Nor do those things hurt the economy — just the opposite.

So where is this coming from? The class traitors guiding the Republican Party, and the harsh new federal budget unveiled this week, usually promote their policies using personal anecdotes. Their condescension toward the poor springs from their own narratives: They are virtuous because they made it, or vice versa. Those who haven’t made a similar leap are weaklings. It’s a variant of Mitt Romney’s view that 47 percent of Americans are moochers. Stripped to its essence, it’s a load of loathing for their former class, delivered on a plate of platitudes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/opinion/traitors-to-their-class.html

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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As we know, Obama has taken notice of Dr. Curry’s blog. One day, Obama notices (via the NSA) Joshua and Williard’s comments on double standards. Obama thinks he could use some help with his image on this topic and hires Josh and Willis as the Joint Czar on Double Standards.

… the Oval Office, the White House …

Obama: Come on in fella’s. I understand you have some recommendations for me.

J&W: Yes, your Majesty.

O: Please present your recommendations.

J&W: We note your, and the Democrat party’s, stance on gun control. This presents a problem for you because the Secret Service carries guns.

O: And?

J&W: It would look much better for you if the guns were replaced with pepper spray. This will make it very difficult for the NRA to argue against a gun ban.

O: Hmmmm … Well fellas, I appreciate your hard work. All I can think to say right now is that if you like your job, you can keep it. Thanks a lot. And oh by the way, throw me that pack of Marlboros and send in the Chief of Staff as you leave.

J&W: Yes, your Majesty.

Comment on Week in review by cerescokid

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Joshua

Read and comprehend with precision. I said double since 1950s and 1960s. Your chart starts at 1970. Secondly, I said Family income. You show household income.

We have undergone vast demographic changes over the last 50 years. The number of households with a single person has doubled. The number of single mothers households has greatly increased.

The median family income of a husband & wife with 2 incomes is $92,000. The median income of single mothers is $28,00p.

I will repeat. The real median family income is double what it was in the 1950s and 1960s.

Comment on Week in review by willard (@nevaudit)

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Words of wisdom, Jim, words of wisdom.


Comment on Week in review by willard (@nevaudit)

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[Jim & the Denizens] Please divert your course 15 degrees to the North to avoid a collision.

[The World Chorus] Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.

[Jim & the Denizens] This is the captain of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert YOUR course.

[The World Chorus] No, I say again, you divert YOUR course.

[Jim & the Denizens] THIS IS THE AIRCRAFT CARRIER USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN, THE SECOND LARGEST SHIP IN THE UNITED STATES’ ATLANTIC FLEET. WE ARE ACCOMPANIED BY THREE DESTROYERS, THREE CRUISERS AND NUMEROUS SUPPORT VESSELS. I DEMAND THAT YOU CHANGE YOUR COURSE 15 DEGREES NORTH. THAT’S ONE-FIVE DEGREES NORTH, OR COUNTER MEASURES WILL BE UNDERTAKEN TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THIS SHIP.

(AND WE OWN THE CONGRESS.)

[The World Chorus] This is a planet. Your call.

Comment on Week in review by omanuel

Comment on Week in review by Joshua

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==> “Willard, if you had any awareness of the business world you wouldn’t be asking for citations.

Another “skeptic” who belongs to the I am against appeals to authority unless I’m appealing to my own authority school of argument construction.

Comment on Temperature adjustments in Australia by willard (@nevaudit)

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> If you go back far enough with CET you can see the oscillations clearly with different levels of peaks and troughs over the centuries.

If we accept not to use:

many figures that don’t even exist.

then Central England Temperature might need to be renamed the Lancashire, London and Bristol triangle

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

Even then I’m not even sure why we should extrapolate anything beyond the stations themselves.

Comment on Week in review by Joshua

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kid –

==> “I will repeat. The real median family income is double what it was in the 1950s and 1960s.”

I’m not sure why you’re repeating it, as I didn’t dispute it even though you apparently mistakenly thought that I was.

Again, I’ve asked you for data on relevant context. I have given you data that helps to provide context. Apparently you think that I was arguing that those data were conclusive in some way. I wasn’t.

So you’re zero for two so far.

Again, to really understand the information that you’ve supplied, and how it informs us about the relative status of the middle class in the 50s and 60s compared to today, it is useful to look deeper beyond your simplistic statement and your pointing to the cost of food in isolation from other basic expenses.

Now I find this stuff kind of interesting. Perhaps you are entirely correct, and the middle class is better off or at least no worse off than they were in the past. The problem is that you have provided insufficient information for making that evaluation. I’ve looked for other information and what I’ve found is far from comprehensive, but what it does indicate is that the sweeping generalizations you were making may well be in accurate.

I’ll point out again that pointing to the numbers of mean family income are not on point w/r/t the middle class – because the mean could very well be skewed enormously by vastly greater gains among the upper class. That seems like very basic logic to me. If you have related information, I’d appreciate it. The limited data that I found show that indeed, it would be misleading to focus on aggregated mean data.

I’ll point out again that pointing to the lower % of income spent on food could also, very well be misleading if there were relatively greater increases in costs for things like housing or energy needs.

I’ll point out also, that other changes such as increased #’s of families that have two parents working, or that have to deal with the added costs of child care, or that are working longer hours per family, are all relevant factors w/r/t your sweeping generalizations.

I spent some time looking for the relevant data. Couldn’t really find enough to really be very comprehensive. I assume that you, being a “skeptic” and all, must have those data to make such sweeping generalizations, so I asked you for those data. For some reason, you apparently think that something would be lost if you provided me with those data. I don’t understand why you feel that way, but I’m willing to accept that for what it is, particularly with the knowledge that I can’t do anything to change what you do or don’t do.

At any rate, if you change your mind and you’d like to add more information to the discussion, I’d like to see it.

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

Comment on Week in review by Jim D

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So you hope that the Republicans will continue to fund the US Corps of Engineers to look at climate change effects on infrastructure. I would not put it past them to nix that too. Let’s hope sense prevails in this case.


Comment on Week in review by aplanningengineer

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Fernando – you have three relatively good cheese choices. What countries have good cheese, good beer and wine and make wise environmental and energy choices?

Comment on Temperature adjustments in Australia by Steven Mosher

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thanks willard.

I have a post for Judith showing what happens when you dont extrapolate beyond “the stations” themselves.

basically if you vary gridding resolution from large to small at the limit you approach the simple average which is biased.

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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I don’t know, but I just can’t wait for Fernando to supply the answer!

Comment on Week in review by Joshua

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kid –

Just to point out something that I particularly love about “skeptics.” Look at this statement you made, and give it some thought. See if you can suss out what, in particular, I love about it. (Here’s a hint, it shows an unskeptical approach to the discussion.)

==> “Read and comprehend with precision. I said double since 1950s and 1960s. Your chart starts at 1970″

I’m guessing that you won’t figure it out, but perhaps I’m wrong. Let’s see. I’ll post more on it later.

Comment on Week in review by jim2

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As if Josh consistently sussed out inconsistency.

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