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Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Peter Davies

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The 1st and the 1st sentence of the 4th paras are duplicated except that the link in the 1st para does not work. Perhaps the 1st para needs to be rewritten as a summary of the current state of the debate?

The rising incidence of serious allergies in children such as hay fever, asthma and reactions to various nuts appear to be a modern phenomenon and possibly resulting from overuse of antibiotics and cortisones in treatment of what used to be minor ailments in generations past.

The relationship of climate change and environmental changes to trends in human health seems to be tenuous at best.


Comment on Climate change availability cascade by NW

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Oh I see, a phrase coined on the back of information cascades by cass sunstein, which are now “subsumed” by cass’ new word. That is, completely purloined.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Wagathon

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Climate change may exacerbate problems that are caused by government and the fix is more government.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Turbulent Eddie

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Of course, this paper demonstrates how mortatlity rises during the cold season and is at its lowest during the warm season, as seen in this chart.

Other factors are at play – of course. But certainly consistent with “cold kills”.

But the availability cascade is a powerful force because global warming can be employed no matter how unlikely to a myriad of conceived ill effects, even if they would require the highest warming to remain plausible.

Wallace and Hobbs identified a similar principle with climate change alone, in 1983:

“Many of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and causes of climate change are still largely unresolved because of our incomplete quantitative understanding of many of the physical processes that enter into the global energy balance and for lack of definitive observational data on which to test various theories. Under such circumstances it is far easier to propose new climate change hypotheses than it is to substantiate or disprove old ones.”

Lets see,
* Frog decline was attributed to global warming, even though biologists spreading a fungus on their boots was later found the culprit.
* Bee decline was attributed to global warming, whoops – it was pathogens.
* Pine bark beetle? No.
* Polar bears? Turns out not shooting them had a much greater effect on their survival.

It stands to reason, of course, species alive today are selected for by having survived all the natural variation of the past. Nature is not especially found of highly particular organisms.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by NW

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“An availability cascade subsumes two of the special cascades that have recently received considerable attention in the social sciences, though not in law: informational cascades and reputational cascades. An informational cascade occurs when people with incomplete personal information on a particular matter base their own beliefs on the apparent beliefs of others. To be more specific, suppose that the words and deeds of certain individuals give the impression that they accept a particular belief. In response to their communications, other individuals, who lack reliable information, may accept
that belief simply by virtue of its acceptance by others. As long as members of the relevant group are heterogeneous along one or more dimensions (e.g., initial personal information, willingness to rely on others for information, timing of social contacts), the transformation of the distribution of beliefs
can take the form of a cascade, known also as a bandwagon or snowballing process.”

From Kuran and Sunstein, Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation.

In my opinion, this is a really awful description of the actual information cascade in Bikchandani, Hirschleifer and Welch. Much of it is just wrong and the rest is misleading. I can elaborate if it is wanted.

My suggestion: If you are getting your intuition from Kuran and Sunstein, look someplace else.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Wagathon

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The French were not impressed by the ‘availability cascade’ back when they decided to go nuclear. Why? They were desparate. The didn’t have the luxury to engage in esoteric thinking. We’re not too desparate… yet: there’s still some time left for the 47% to continue to bleed the productive like fatted calves before they’re forced to fold and join the army of government bureaucrats and its fascilitators.


Comment on Climate change availability cascade by darrylb

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Reduce the sophistication and modern means of rapid communication in society today and one can see how it came to be that not long ago suspected witches wee burned at the stake.
Those in charge blamed every possible bad event on the work of the witches.
No other cause for events was even considered, and if it was, then the perpetrator of the false narrative ( such as some other cause for failed crops) must be an evil person, possibly a witch and likewise should be scorned or burned.

Also —–And Scientists caught in the cross fire.—-
Was it not a certain few scientists that created and enhanced the magnitude of the cross fire?
When somebody like Kevin Trenberth causes a Roy Spencer article to be removed.
—Or the Students of S. Schneider publishes a blacklist of 496 scientists and this list is promoted by a national science organization.

And a major science organization makes a statement which is antithetical to the very core of scientific procedure “The Science is Settled” Sad!

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Michelle Stirling

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by rpielke

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Hi Judy – This is really excellent! It is concise, effective and accurate.

I assume you have a venue in mind, but I urge you to consider this as an Opinion article in EOS.

Roger Sr.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by jck101

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I don’t believe there is a direct linkage, however, the indirect linkage seems possible. Climate change causes longer growing seasons and more plants and pollen. Pollen affects asthma negatively. Therefore climate change leads to more asthma.

However, I don’t know how popular a selling point we need plants to die back to reduce asthma is going to be.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Joshua

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==> “And?”

Just wanted to let you know how happy I am to find out that you’re a flip-flopper.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Mark Silbert

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My favorite line in a movie is from Woody Allen’s “Annie Hall”:

“The only cultural advantage that L.A. has over N.Y. is that you can make a right hand turn on a red light.”

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by RiHo08

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phatboy

I am speculating here; when you were young, the definition of asthma was related to allergies. At that time there was the trouble defining asthma from a number of other conditions. Then the European and US definition of asthma came closer together about 2000. Still the European definition has a very heavy reliance upon allergies. Most global definitions came together around 2000 at a conference and subsequent series of committee agreements. I am presuming that you were born well before 2000, possibly in the 1940’s or early 1950’s.

Asthma has achieved a bad name for itself and so there has been a reluctance for physicians to “label” a person with asthma. Such a label will keep someone out of the armed forces, raise their insurance rates or keep them from getting insurance altogether. There is a certain stigma about having asthma, including an emotional instability association, which has dogged asthmatics for a while.

So while your great grandma didn’t have asthma, she died of a “chest condition”. Was it pneumonia, tuberculosis, heart attack, etc.? But NOT asthma or so your mother said. The stigma for the label of asthma still strikes some communities, tribes, cultural groups as a liability or family fault.

Fortunately, asthma is observed the world over: @ 14% in children and @ 6% in adults, and, if you look hard enough, dad’s cigarette cough which can be treated with bronchodilators and his pulmonary function tests substantially improve. Hmmmm. Sounds like asthma to me. Its all in the nuance of labeling.

One of the interesting recent findings from the Tucson AZ study, children with “pneumonia” in the first years of life go on to have poor lung function and more “respiratory problems.” Now, about 40 years ago, the adult group in Tucson group reported that in people with COPD, had histories of childhood respiratory illness before the age of 13, irrespective if they smoked cigarettes or not. Hmmm.

Anywho, The Ancient Greek physicians observed that asthma was not a single disorder. Today, some researchers are rediscovering those truths.


Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Danny Thomas

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Joshua,
The post is discussing the “climate change availability cascade” so why the quotation may indeed be hyperbolic, it comes across to me to be a useful tool when waged versus topics such as GW/CC having caused Malia’s asthma. In turn, isn’t Dr. Curry’s use of those words indicate the exactly the cascade effect to which the article refers?
We’re not privy to the audience for which this effort is addressed. Much of the issue in the larger discussion of GW/CC is cascaded from the AGW or more so the CAGW side. After all, GW/CC is the cause of: asthma and other health issues, war, famine, deaths of millions of children, future SLR, habitat destruction, extinction, etc., etc.
Interesting that you chose to focus on this tool of choice of Dr. Curry’s yet I can’t recall you having done so w/r/t these other issues. I stand by adding only the word almost as suggested above.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by curryja

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by markbofill

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Joshua, <blockquote>But what is the larger issue? Is it that “realists” are prone to “cascading assumptions” about climate change? Or is it that humans are prone to cascading assumptions – “realists” and “skeptics” alike, and that holier-than-thou approaches to that issue only likely perpetuates the pattern?</blockquote> You know, this <i>is</i> something I wondered about. Not so much the question about whether or not 'realists' or humans in general are prone to cascading assumptions; I think it's everyone who's prone to it. But the idea of what to do about it. Is there something to be done about it, is there a better approach than the one Dr. Curry is taking? Assuming that we agree that something <i>should</i> be done about it in the first place, I guess. Your comments are interesting and much appreciated as usual Joshua. Thanks.

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by kim

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I remember an ol’ fella who said that the treatment for cardiac asthma was ‘ouabain and the knife’, meaning phlebotomy.

The climate may have changed, but they still work.
=================

Comment on Climate change availability cascade by Joshua

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Danny –

==> “The post is discussing the “climate change availability cascade” so why the quotation may indeed be hyperbolic, it comes across to me to be a useful tool when waged versus topics such as GW/CC having caused Malia’s asthma.” In turn, isn’t Dr. Curry’s use of those words indicate the exactly the cascade effect to which the article refers?”

Not sure what you meant there, but it was interesting that Judith (without acknowledgement) took out the reference to Obama blaming his daughter’s asthma on climate change, as a “absurd example” – when it could be considered as an example of her engaging in an “availability cascade” and certainly serves as an example of how it is misleading to deal with the issues as if they only apply on one side of the climate wars

==> “We’re not privy to the audience for which this effort is addressed. ”

Well, sure, that’s true.

==> “Much of the issue in the larger discussion of GW/CC is cascaded from the AGW or more so the CAGW side.”

Hmmm I see posts and comments all throughout the “skept-o-sphere” that talk of “economic suicide” and a massive “hoax” and comparisons to Lysenko and Stalin and references to “warmunists,” blah, blah, blah. IMO, what would be more interesting and more valuable to look at the underlying issues related to “availability cascades” as they exist in a non-tribal framework and then, perhaps, carefully and with due skeptical diligence and application of a scientific approach to analysis determine whether this balance that you assert (based on purely anecdotal evidence gathering I assume?) is borne out.

==> “After all, GW/CC is the cause of: asthma”

See. Right there, that is what I am talking about. That is a rhetorical application of “cause.” Does exacerbate mean “cause?” How many people argue that climate change “causes” asthma – as if other underlying factors aren’t the main causality? This is where the hyperbolic language that Judith uses seems to me to be counterproductive.

===> “and other health issues, war, famine, deaths of millions of children, future SLR, habitat destruction, extinction, etc., etc.”

All worthwhile issues for a non-tribalisitc and non-hyperbolic approach, IMO.

==> “I stand by adding only the word almost as suggested above.

And my perspective is that saying:

Almost [e]verything that goes wrong then reinforces the conviction that that there is only one thing we can do [to] prevent societal problems – stop burning fossil fuels.

is counterproductive hyperbole that only fans the flames of tribalism.
Interesting that you chose to focus on this tool of choice of Dr. Curry’s yet I can’t recall you having done so w/r/t these other issues. I stand by adding only the word almost as suggested above.

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