Sowell is more a popularizer of pretty old ideas in economics, not an innovator.
– You may be right with respect to economics. On some of his deepest work, an economic nobel wouldn’t apply.
\Tom
Comment on The Righteous Mind by Tom Schaub
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by Chief Hydrologist
Bernie,
I don’t what to say about any of that. Le Pétomane and his absurd arm waving. What does any of it mean? It is all fantastical.
I think you should look further afield. Both ocean expansion and melting is a function of warming. Warming is all energy. This figure from Wong et al 2007 uses sea level rise to determine energy content in the ocean and compares that with ERBS. – http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=Wong2006figure7.gif – You will find that most of the warming in that period – as determined by both ERBS and ISCCP-FD which are both NASA programs – was in the SW. This fits in with a lot of evidence of how the Pacific operates in it’s decadal mode. It also has much longer and larger variability than seen in the 20th century as shown in this ENSO proxy – http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view¤t=ENSO11000.gif –
We are in a cool Pacific decadal mode – http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.1.2.2012.gif- as can be seen in the cool blue V in the central Pacific. How can sea level rise if the the planet isn’t warming for the next decade or three. I rather think that you and James Hansen are simply unable to process this cognitively – catastrophists through and through. Here is a copy of recent WSJ article – http://junkscience.com/2012/04/10/pascal-bruckner-the-ideology-of-catastrophe/ – we think it’s a bit sad.
Beyond that lies dragons. Drgon-kings to be precise defined as extremes ‘associated with a neighborhood of what can be called equivalently a phase transition, a bifurcation, a catastrophe (in the sense of Rene Thom), or a tipping point.’ Sornette 2009 There have been climate shifts identified around 1910, the mid 1940′s, the late 1790′s and 1998/2001.
Abrupt climate change – unpredictable – is not merely more likely than slow climate evolution but is how climate works without a doubt.
Robert I Ellison
Chief Hydrologist
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by Chief Hydrologist
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by sunshinehours1
Mexico exports half of its oil production.
They seem to have lots to spare.
But they probably fell into the trap of not spending money looking for Bakken-like formations.
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Comment on Assessing climate model software quality by WebHubTelescope
They don’t because scientifically inclined bloggers would have a field day in writing mocking posts dissecting the errors.
So they instead say that nature is hopelessly complex and chaotic and leave it at that.
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Comment on Assessing climate model software quality by Peter317
Posts like this one remind me in no uncertain terms why I’m a sceptic.
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by Tom Schaub
Yes, and unintentionally insulting as well.
My apologies.
Per your Denizens profile, there is no reason you would have heard of Sowell. However, if you want to think seriously about the intersections of economics with issues of culture or minorities, you should read him. Also, his Basic Economics is the best math-free survey of economics available. His book on Marx is the best intro to him as well.
Again, sorry. ‘policy’ takes in a lot my than I had in mind when I threw out my ‘grown-ups’ line.
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by David Wojick
Regarding your “What if I had said anyone who hadn’t studied mathematical statistics should shut up when the grown ups are discussing statistical significance?” two points. First you are still using the foolishly insulting term grown ups, when you apparently mean experts. Second, Sowell is by no means equivalent to mathematical statistics. Try being sensible. I agree that people who have not read Sowell probably have little to say when Sowell experts talk about him, but so what?
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by blueice2hotsea
Bart R -
Finally, the touch-point for this tiff was the modeling of
an agent who believes that climate models are as close to falsification [...] as mathematically possible”
Jeez. Couldn’t they have used an actual example of denier logic instead of twisting words to slander someone who is CLEARLY NOT A DENIER? For me, the actual comment was a teasing observation that IPCC claims will be falsifiable in principal just as soon as the 54 key mathematical uncertainties have been fully worked out. That’s FUNNY.
Of course, to be falsifiable in principle is a key differetiator between science and religion.
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Comment on Week in review 4/13/12 by Chief Hydrologist
It was a term invented by Hansen for mixing of heat into the oceans to emerge later to add to surface warming. It doesn’t happen.
There is no long adjustment time for CO2 – but even if there were it can’t cause increased warming later on and has nothing to with Hansen’s idea of heat in the pipeline.
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by Tom Schaub
Please study economics. If fossil fuels look like they are going to run out, that will mean that the people who own it will leave it in the ground and wait for the price to go up. If the signals are mixed, some will go ahead and extract and some will wait. This sort of thing happens every day. Your comments are disconnected from how markets actually work.
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by Tom Schaub
+1
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by kim
Bully for you, lolwot. My tag line for ~5 years has been ‘The globe is cooling, folks; for how long even kim doesn’t know’, specifically because I’m not certain of all this. I could be convinced that AGW is worth mitigating. It’s just that I’ve looked for such evidence with a fine tooth comb for many years now, and I haven’t found it.
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by lolwot
Recent warming, eg warming since 1980
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1980/to:2012/plot/uah/from:1980/trend
“According to UAH the only warming in the last 30+ years occurred in conjunction with the big 98-01 ENSO”
B.S.
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by Bart R
Jim2 | April 22, 2012 at 10:14 am |
More LP, less DL.
While much of what you say has some basis in fact, it then takes those bases, tosses away the, erm, _inconvenient_ bits, and builds an artificial case without application of logic.
There are times when splicing multiple datasets together to create a composite image may be — though not preferable — valid where precautions are observed. Presenting any composite without fully explaining its composite nature and allowing inquiry into the raw data and compositing methods is of course open to questions of academic honesty and such a graph ought count as no evidence at all for a reasonable skeptic. But then, so too would be presenting a graph from a single source.
While some red noise effects can generate a hockey stick tendency as density of observations increase, there are methods to distinguish whether one is seeing this artifact, or actual rise; the red noise argument is old, and has been obsoleted in the case of warming; BEST has shown the rise is likely real at about a confidence of 1000:3; consilience, too, has separate and apart, confirmed the objective reality of the temperature rise to high confidence levels.
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by David Wojick
Thanks Tom, I appreciate your response. I was never criticizing the substance of your post. The grand challenge here is to be civil, or even (gasp, choke) polite. Sometimes I nag people about this, precisely because I value what they have to say.
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by Bart R
So.. a preference for DL without LP.
Yeah, I’ve seen that in many Eastern philosophies, presentations by vibrational human energy motivational speakers , and stage magicians.
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Comment on The Righteous Mind by David Wojick
Actually it probably does. But as usual I have no idea what your point is. We have to stop meeting like this.
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Comment on Week in review 4/20/12 by johanna
Further to my comment above, I also recommend the review and analysis of the history and philosophy of climate science on the same site, here:
http://enthusiasmscepticismscience.wordpress.com/2010/09/23/civilisation-and-climate/
This article discusses the scientific and philosophical underpinnings of climate/weather measurement in relation to social and political imperatives throughout recorded history. Good stuff.
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Comment on Climate change responses in the developing world by Jim2
And Roy Spencer has shown that much of the rise in US temperatures, at least, can be attributed to UHI effect. Your case is very weak. And, unfortunately, the precautions necessary to validate the splicing of proxies and instrumental numbers are not made obvious to the public, at least. Again, I wish I had more access to papers.
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