Comment on Ignorance: the true engine of science by Chief Hydrologist

April 25, 2012, 1:22 am

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I can’t imagine E=MC^2 being wrong – it derives mathematically from the 2nd law off motion. Yes the one that Bart said was superceded by relativity. – http://www.btinternet.com/~j.doyle/SR/Emc2/Deriving.htm – You would tend to question the experimental results instead.

2 + 2 I can imagine being wrong if the math is nonlinear.

A hand is five.
the other is five.
So what do you get when
you add five plus five?
A butterfly.

Do you get the distinction? One is a universal physical law – the other is dependent on ititial conditions.

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Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by Steven Mosher

April 25, 2012, 1:30 am

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Look no further than this thread or wuwt to see how few people get that WHATEVER the truth about GCR is, it has nothing to do with the subject of how C02 warming the planet. Nothing.

Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by lolwot

April 25, 2012, 1:31 am

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Svensmark could be smeared just as easily

Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by lolwot

April 25, 2012, 1:35 am

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See Bruce, already here we have an opening to claim svensmark is BSing. This is all it takes. it starts off by finding “problems” we can’t understand and using those to ridicule the scientists.

Hey maybe its fraud?

Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by Chief Hydrologist

April 25, 2012, 1:53 am

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Oh Steven,

I am agnositic on GCR – especially the 500 million year supernova variety. It is all fun but how well can anything over that scale be known.

The question with recent warming is how much was natural variability and whence is it heading. Most of recent warming was greenhouse gases? That isn’t what you would expect from ocean variability – and isn’t what the satellite data shows. Warming continue at 0.2 degrees C/decade? It wasn’t warming at that rate when ocean variability is removed – it isn’t now and won’t for a decade or three.

Comment on Ignorance: the true engine of science by Chief Hydrologist

April 25, 2012, 2:29 am

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Initial – I knew it didn’t look right but didn’t figure out why.

Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by Joy Black

April 25, 2012, 2:35 am

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Students of history find much in Svensmark’s article to reflect upon. The American Institute of Physics (AIP) hosts a fine website on the history of climate change science, and we see find the methodology of Svensmark’s analysis belongs to a large class of dubiously successful statistics-driven analyses whose history the AIP describes in “Changing Sun, Changing Climate?” (a Google search for this phrase will find it).

Willis Eschenbach has been doing a good job of demonstrating that Svensmark’s analysis repeats these earlier mistakes; for this public service Willis deserves our thanks.

Striking too is the intense publicity that Svensmark’s article is receiving. Students of history recognize a repetition of previous patterns of behavior, of which well-documented examples can be found on PUBMED, including “Turning free speech into corporate speech: Philip Morris’ efforts to influence U.S. and European journalists regarding the U.S. EPA report on secondhand smoke..”

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Prediction: Svensmark’s article will be spotlighted next month at the Heartland Institute’s Seventh International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-7), and this spotlighting will further the corporate objectives of Heartland Institute donors.

Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by DEEBEE

April 25, 2012, 3:05 am

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lolwot, you have some Svensmark e-mails you want to share?

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Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by beesaman

April 25, 2012, 3:07 am

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Alfred Wegener had the same reaction with his ‘continental drift’ theory.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by Cassie

April 25, 2012, 3:39 pm

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It gets me so mad to think about that.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by Steven Mosher

April 25, 2012, 3:40 pm

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technically no. observation can always be questioned.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by Steven Mosher

April 25, 2012, 3:41 pm

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I think that the more people remind the lolwots of the world that most skeptics dont deny that C02 will warm the planet, the better.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by Brandon Shollenberger

April 25, 2012, 3:44 pm

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Anteros:

Why the obviously dishonest graphs?

I still think the most amazing thing about that movie is Al Gore dismisses the criticisms of the original hockey stick by telling the viewers to look at how similar the temperature record from Lonnie Thompson’s ice core data is to the hockey stick. The reason this is amazing? The graph he presented was actually Mann’s hockey stick. To make it all the more amazing, Lonnie Thompson was Al Gore’s scientific adviser for the movie.

That dishonesty wasn’t obvious, but it’s mind-boggling that it could happen, and apparently nobody would care.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by kim

April 25, 2012, 3:44 pm

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Use ‘analytical thinking’. With ‘critical thinking’, these words, they do not mean what you think they mean.
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Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by bob droege

April 25, 2012, 3:47 pm

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But Hansen predicted that the temperature rise would come out of the noise.
And the trace gas argument is bogus, in that the percentage of radiatively active gases in the atmosphere means nothing, the absolute amount is what counts.

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Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by Brandon Shollenberger

April 25, 2012, 3:57 pm

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Steven Mosher:

Please Note my exact locution.

I am perfectly aware of your locution. It has no bearing on what I said.

Lets use ordinary language to show the difference….

Which sentence sounds stupid.

1. he won the debate
2. he won the dialogue…

In short. sentence 1 makes sense and sentence 2 seems odd. Why?
because debate brings with it some notion of closure.

This is a stupid example, and it does nothing to support your conclusion. You’re claiming to demonstrate which form gives closure, yet your example does nothing of the sort. Closure is a sense of finality, not a sense of victory.

By discussing winning, you’re distorting the discussion, and thus you’re falsely claiming support for your position.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by kakatoa

April 25, 2012, 3:57 pm

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Cassie,

If you are allowed/permitted to offer a more complete view of CO2′s role in things- at your daughters class- I suggest trying to help students improve their knowledge of the Carbon Cycle. Something is amiss if only 8% of college students understand that the mass of a tree comes from CO2 (see question 6 in the attached file).
“College Students’ Understanding of the Carbon Cycle: Contrasting Principle-based and Informal Reasoning”

http://news.msu.edu/media/documents/2011/01/f6e8a4d5-8ccb-48be-8d4b-1915c5c2583c.pdf

In my 5th grade science class we ran the famous mouse in a jar experiment. It’s hard to call a trace gas evil if plant life uses it………

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/enlarge/jarmouse.html

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by lolwot

April 25, 2012, 4:09 pm

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“the observed data shows that there is no CO2 signal in any modern temperature/time graph”

No it doesn’t. The observed data shows warming, which is exactly what we’d expect from rising CO2 and a high climate sensitivity. I am not saying that’s the only explanation, but your claim that there is no CO2 signal is not compatible with observations.

Comment on Education and the Art of Uncertainty by kim

April 25, 2012, 4:19 pm

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Three times in the last century and a half the rate of warming has been the same, and in only the last of these was CO2 also rising. Phil Jones, heself, told me so.

lolwot, a lot of money has been spent seeking a definitive anthroCO2 signal, so far in vain. Hardly any money at all has been spent elucidating the natural signal, and it is there for all to see.
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Comment on Evidence of nearby supernovae affecting life on Earth by Beth Cooper

April 25, 2012, 4:36 pm

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H/T to Wagathon @ 25/4. 11.38 am:
Co2 is the Medium amd Liberal Utopianism is the Massage.

Volcanoes, recurring solar activity, maybe cosmic rays and solar minimums, albido, Enso events? Merely data on a ‘do not need to know’ basis.