Looks like El Nino finally got up a head of steam. Does this mean monsoon time for India, or is it not related at all.
Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by jim2
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by ordvic
This raises a number of questions for me. If CFAN can make predictions presumably based on climate variables shouldn’t the consensus conjecture hypothesis of AGW be able to make predictions of extreme weather events? Shouldn’t it be able to predict droughts, rain and floods, polar vortex, huricanes and tornadoes outside of variation events? They should also be able to predict sea ice extent and sea level rise. If this is true shouldn’t it be made public or at least given to authorities to prepare for such calamities? Show your work!
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by mosomoso
Worth keeping in mind that India has had a couple of very severe cold waves recently, including last winter. One reason it’s futile to take an event as typical or trending is that extreme cold and heat can alternate, as in 1936-7, 1911-12 in the US, not to mention more recent swings.
I say it’s futile, but that doesn’t stop some from squeezing the political juice from every calamity. If the calamity is on the cold side, they just say “polar vortex”, “Lake Effect” or “melt risk”. No blizzards. No winning.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by curryja
CFAN is using ensemble weather forecast models, which make predictions out to 15 days. NOAA makes forecasts publicly available (as do other national weather forecast agencies including the Indian Meteorological Department). Many private sector forecast providers do a better job at providing local forecasts than do the national forecast agencies; they charge clients for their forecasts, which is how they can afford to actually make the forecasts. Hence these forecasts are not publicly available. My company CFAN does make some forecasts publicly available for high impact events that affect undeveloped countries, for humanitarian reasons.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by ordvic
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Turbulent Eddie
The Indian population, the military, and athletes. Same same.
Yes – they’re called human beings.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by ordvic
JC, thank you that is very informative. I still wonder, however, about AGW and claims of it causing extreme weather events. If this hypothesis is true shouldn’t they be able to make predictions for testing or falsification purposes? I supplied a link to Jim 2 above aboug scientists using falsification to find out about El Nino and its connection to Monsoons. In the same vein shouldn’t there be predictions made for verification purposes as to AGW and extreme weather rather than just making wild claims? I know that’s not a question you can answer. I’m just pushing the envelope for a tesying method for their hypothesis.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Steven Mosher
In one small study we did in the US.. the increase was about 2X.
very useful for planning.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Willard
> However, have you ever considered you are wrong about growth?
Growth is not Grrrowth. One is an almost useless metric. The other belongs to a very useful bag of rhetorical tricks. One possible use:
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Steven Mosher
“, but ECMWF is substantially superior.”
I’m getting that impression. for grins I’ve been pulling the openweathermap 14 day.. ( based on multiple sources including ECMWF) and it is substantially less wrong than GFS.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Wagathon
Are we having to scour the globe for the information we need to keep the threat of local cataclysm alive? How does that square with reality?
“What El Niño does is it suppresses the hurricane season, mainly during the peak months of the season, which are August, September and October,” Gerry Bell, NOAA
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Comment on Solar grid parity? by jacksmith4tx
When I see quotes like that I really question the validity of all the numbers in this post. I paid $3.26 watt (28 panels/microinverters) in November 2011 and was connected to the grid by Feb. 2012. Note that 100% of my system was labeled “Made in USA”. Fact is there is a big tariff on foreign made PV and that’s 80%+ of the manufacturing base outside the US. Check out the real wholesale prices here: http://pvinsights.com/
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Willard
> Yes – they’re called human beings.
Then let’s establish the public health policies using athletes and the military as a golden standards.
That ought to help the elderly, the newborns, the hospitalized.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Turbulent Eddie
> Yes – they’re called human beings.
Then let’s establish the public health policies using athletes and the military as a golden standards.
That ought to help the elderly, the newborns, the hospitalized.
You play a mean game of ClimateBall there w.
The same bodily adaptations occur in all.
Emotionalizing the issue doesn’t change the science.
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Turbulent Eddie
The first form of this is Gruesome. Its called harvesting
No –
dying != acclimatizing
The body adjusts to become more heat tolerant.
Now, the elderly are more vulnerable to begin with.
But simple things: increasing fluid intake, reducing activity and reducing exposure all reduce risks and sadly, most of the victims are those not take the simple steps.
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Comment on Week in review – science edition by russellseitz
Monckton & Soon's celebrated<I> Science Bulletin </i> modeling paper <b> <a href="http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2015/06/has-monckton-dynasty-lost-mandate-of.html" rel="nofollow">has just imploded .</b></a>
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Steven Mosher
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by climatereason
I have a soft spot for India, having been there several times. What always strikes me are the teeming cities and surely this is a basic problem with the city under review in this article? It is VERY crowded..
Here is the wiki information on Ahmedabad
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmedabad
150 years ago it consisted of a few thousand people. In 1960 it had half a million people. Today it has around 6.5 million.
The Romans knew all about UH in large and already warm cities. Vendors sold Umberellas (parasols) and crushed ice and the wealthy left the city in the summer. It eventually reached 1 million population and after the great fire Nero was entreated to build houses high and in narrow streets to create shade and cooling breezes.
In the local UK weather forecast over the past few days London has been up to 4 degrees C warmer than the surrounding area during the day and today it is forecast to be some 8C warmer at night. Other UK cities show similar differentials to the surrounding more rural areas.
We can not ignore the warming effects of cities, especially those with few parks or trees.
As for mitigation and plans, surely the populace would be best served by industrialising and thus being able to afford energy and the means to cool their environment and provide cool drinks and, more importantly, to devise a way of living in cities that are already in an extremely hot and very dry climate. More Trees? More Parks? Different types of Buildings?
I don’t pretend to have the answers but whilst UHI is arguably net beneficial in Northern cities, in places like Ahmedabad it needs to be actively combatted.
tonyb
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Peter Webster
Perhaps you are correct and the long-term solution is to have more cheap power and use it to cool the citizens. BUT, Ahmedabad has a problem now. They have an action plan to minimize impacts and optimize their health support. So I see ensue in doing what you can now.
I am not making light of the UHI. Clearly an issue that will get worse and worse with rapid population growth and urbanization. Si the AMS wanted to do something and we helped as best we can. I think was impressed with what they wanted and how they have implemented the information in the forecasts. Whether this effort is sustainable for the long term, I am less than optimistic.
PW
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Comment on Tactical adaptation to Indian heat waves by Steven Mosher
tonyb
“We can not ignore the warming effects of cities, especially those with few parks or trees.”
Nobody is ignoring those effects
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