You know if you got drunk on the job you might fall unconscious and really avoid any bad decisions…well except one :O)
Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by mwgrant
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by AK
Our employee handbook is a single card that says ‘Use good judgment in all situations’
I’ll bet there’s a huge amount of precedent and case law.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by Mark Silbert
Cool and wet here in northern New Mexico too.
No forrest fires this year and everything is blooming. Nothing like the desert when it gets some moisture.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by PA
The problem with this situation is a lack of good data and validation of the various theories.
The global warming theorists should be able to make some testable predictions.
The global warming faction have to some extent:
1. Melted sea ice
2. Warmer temperatures
3. More downwelling IR.
4. Increasing atmospheric CO2 level and increasing rate of increase.
5. Harm from warming
6. Harm from CO2.
They need to make specific predictions for the next decade and the claims evaluated against actual data by an independent and preferably skeptical group.
Lets look at the CO2 increase.
The 940 PPM RCP 8.5 2100 CO2 level would require a 6.35 PPM/y CO2 increase. That is 13.5 GT/Y of carbon into the atmosphere. Given that the current increase is 2 PPM/Y (4.26 GT/Y) with about 10 GT/Y of emission. About 6 GT/Y of carbon is absorbed by the environment and the amount is increasing.
At the end of the century the rate would have to be a minimum emission of 30.8 GT/Y of carbon into the atmosphere. Given the 760 GT of available carbon reserves this doesn’t seem realistic.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by Mark Silbert
Moso,
Do you follow Quadrant Online? I just read this essay:
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/07/apostate-pope/
Some really interesting stuff at Quadrant. Beats the cr-p out of reading inane comments by some of the denizens.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by iiequalsexpipi
“i equal sex pipi”
Wow, I didn’t even notice that. You guys have lewd minds.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by mwgrant
One final observation from over the years as a technical analyst at DOE facilities, beltway bandits working USACE, EPA, etc…
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by bedeverethewise
I treat all sex pipis equally
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by -1=e^ipi
I could only use numbers and letters for my username, but apparently I can change my display name. How is this?
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by jungletrunks (@jungletrunks)
Yes, Joseph, oil and gas spent about $140 million on lobbying in 2014 of which some fraction of that amount went to fight climate change. The alternative energy lobby spent $21 million. But it’s really not apples to apples, the alternative industry doesn’t have to work all that hard; the government virtually seeks it out to throw money at. Does the Federal government fund biased research? http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/06/is-federal-funding-biasing-climate-research/ If you believe it does like I do (doubtful) then it in effect is lobbying; does anyone else have deeper pockets?
The EPA funded near $50 million towards Harvard’s published paper trying to quantify the costs of climate change relative to health. So that single Harvard research paper equaled about 1/3 of the total oil & gas lobbying budget in 2014.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by -1=e^iπ
Apparently, I can use greek letters as well.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by mosomoso
Interesting take, Mark, though I’m not sure how seriously one should take his semi-literate green-left gabble.
I get the feeling that Francis is a sly and ambitious man, not very bright but supremely cunning, who has a fascist past to live down. Mitterand without the grey cells, maybe.
When the conservative Archbishop Romero was putting his life on the line, Bergoglio was looking on the bright side of right-wing thuggery. Even now he seems to think it would have been a good idea for Falklanders to get with the program of the Argie killers and torturers.
Everything about Francis is rehearsed, but not very well rehearsed. I think his appeal will wear quickly. The real worry is that someone just as ambitious but far more intelligent and malevolent could leap into the throne of St Peter.
Thanks for the tip. Worth a read.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by Jim D
Why not i^2 on the left as a literal translation?
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by JCH
Prove it. You won’t. Mosher has it pegged, so he gets belittled. You guys got nothun.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by bedeverethewise
you’re no fun any more
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by Steven Mosher
Yup.
very interesting.
Worthy of a post I think.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by Wagathon
Since 2009 it has been efficacious to assume that most everyone in the Western government-education complex likely believes in AGW, proof or no proof.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by AK
The biggest problem I see with a tax of this sort involves relative currency fluctuations: If each nation/polity/ecozone applies the tax in its own currency, then the relative charge for “externalities” will vary as the relative currency values do. IMO this would lead to demands for some sort of regulatory bureaucracy to “manage” the issues, which would be a bigger risk than climate.
I’ve been playing with some (very simplistic versions of) a method that might avoid the problems of relative currency values: a generally agreed percentage of fuel being required to use environmentally derived carbon (“carbon-neutral”). Suppose the required fraction starts at 0.1% (1/1000) and increases by ~25% each year. After 31 years the required fraction would be 100%.
This would have several advantages over a tax: the market in “carbon-neutral” fuels would be world-wide, allowing currency fluctuations to be worked around, as well as hedged. Like a constantly increasing tax, it would be a (somewhat) reliable guide to demand and required amounts.
Unlike artificial “carbon credits” that tend to be nothing but “monopoly money”, such “carbon-neutral fuel” would be real fuel, needing to be created in some way, and actually fed into combustion somewhere.
I can see a variety of modifications that might streamline the system without ruining it: coal dug out of the ground could be “blessed” into “carbon-neutral” status by crediting it with the real sequestering of carbon. The most obvious candidate (for sequestration) would be bio-waste which could often be more expensive to make useful as fuel than its value: just dump it into an anoxic ocean trench and exchange the “credits” for real coal, oil, or gas.
Similarly, the “carbon-neutral” status of some fuel could be alienated from the fuel itself, so that, perhaps, 1000 tons of “carbon-neutral” coal (or whatever) loses its “carbon-neutral” status while 1000 tons of previously “un-blessed” somewhere else (maybe across the world) becomes “carbon-neutral in exchange.
Unlike “cap-and-trade”, this system would involve actual sequestration of carbon from the very beginning. However, its effect would be moderated by the fact that only a small fraction of the fuel used in any power generation would have to have “carbon-neutral” status. At first. But, since real carbon has to be sequestered in exchange, or extracted from the air or ocean surface, it would eliminate most of the potential for abuse and market manipulation by “issuers” of the “funny money” carbon credits tried so far.
Seems to me that system would tend to solve some of the problems involved in either carbon taxes, or “cap-and-trade”. Of course, that’s not to say it wouldn’t create problems of its own. But IMO it’s worth thinking about.
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by mwgrant
And where does that leave things?
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Comment on Decision strategies for uncertain, complex situations by Mike Flynn
migrant,
In a sea of complexity and uncertainty, just like life itself.
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