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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3

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hockey, “Captd: Didn’t need to, it is a “fit”. The error in the “fit” is much larger than the estimated impact of CO2 increased forcing. You just have a different version of a simplified model.

Wrong again, you are just making up crap now. You obviously haven’t read the 50 page physical derivation.”

I don’t feel the need either, since it is the “1976 version” us standard atmosphere. The first version was 1958 then there was 1962, 1966 and then the 1976. The versions exist to explain observations of the atmosphere, i.e. “fit” the limited reality of a clean, clear, dry, ideal atmosphere. Observations improved so the versions were revised.

Interestingly, the CAGW proponents tends to ignore that as observations improve their reality might change as well.


Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by aplanningengineer

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Horst – are we getting a little bit apples to oranges here besides the potential discrepancies in concentration level? Sure I’d rather have a heavy metal splashed on my skin than inhaled into my lungs. But breathing air close to a coal plant doesn’t scare me like swimming in impacted waters.

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by Arthur Smith

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Um, no, I read Romer’s posts last week. I’m rather astonished at your misrepresentation/misinterpretation here though maybe I shouldn’t be given past experience. The problem is not public advocacy (Romer doesn’t use those words), it is a style of argumentation – particularly in published research articles – in which the words may strictly be true, but they are designed to conceal flaws rather than make any caveats plain. He has a very specific example on the topic of boundedness that seems quite damning to me. If you are asserting the same applies to any scientist in the field of climate, I strongly suggest you point to a published research article that does anything of the sort Romer points out.

Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by Joshua

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Michael –

==> “Some aren’t happy with just this and seem to need some kind of ritual humiliation as part of the deal.

Then there are the extremists – they’ll never accept any kind of deal and have their hearts set on war.”

I think that a lot of it is explained by ODS.

The Iran deal the anti-Christ flavor of the day.

Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by jim2

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Complaining about air pollution from coal plants begs the question since particulates have been cleaned from the stack for a long time now. That just leaves the non-pollutant CO2. A non-issue.

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by Michael

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by Richard Tol (@RichardTol)

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for those who are unaware of the pecking order in economics, Paul Romer is one of the greatest in his generation — and a candidate to be counted among the greatest of all times

Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by Don Monfort

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This is farcical:

“Ken D, Syria has given up chemical weapons and the alternative was not just sanctions, so for Iran to give up nuclear material when the alternative is just sanctions, that is a good deal.
Don M, if you think Iran is going to be happy with anything Israel is happy with, dream on. That won’t happen, and you will wait a long time while Iran build up their stocks before such an attempt is finally given up as a waste of time. We have the middle ground where neither are happy, but that is where the deal is best for everyone else, and the timing is critical.”

Syria gave up chemical weapons because they couldn’t make effective use of them without suffering almost complete international condemnation and their continued use would have almost certainly resulted in multi-national bombing, increased support for the rebellion and Assad hanging from a lamp post.

Iran has not given up nuclear material. They still have the infrastructure in place to produce a bomb when they choose to do so. In theory, it will just take them a little longer, after they make the decision. And they get the benefit of hundreds of billions of dollars to fund long range ballistic missile development, terrorism and other forms of mischief and they still hate us and shout death to America, etc. But maybe they are just kidding.

When this farce started the U.S. position was the same as Israel’s: dismantling of Iran’s capability to produce nuclear weapons and a 24/7 anytime, anywhere ironclad inspections regime. The plan was not to work out some deal that would make the nutty ayatollahs happy. But that is exactly what we did and only an idiot would think it’s a good deal for us.


Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by RiHo08

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“JC comment: The year 2000, the publication of the IPCC TAR, and the elevation by IPCC Chair John Houghton of the hockey stick to icon status. A small accident in the history of the IPCC has had serious adverse consequences for climate science.”

To me 2000 was a watershed year for science, the year when speculation, particularly with regards to cataclysmic events, became legitimate.

We recall the Y2K potential disaster that gripped the White House and Congress, the military, business and air flights and trains and cars and everything that goes, suddenly, and terribly stopping or going haywire. Executives of sensitive infrastructure stayed the night with their IT people at ready. Not a blip.

2000 was also the time of the peak and bust of the Dot-Com bubble. Speculative value rising and falling in a blink of an eye.

Prior to 2000, on the societal side, there was great social euphoria buoyed by apparent wealth and rising expectations. Restraints on personal expression were decried and demonized; the pointing out of doing things the old way as being ancient and wrong. And then there was the crash, as into buildings on September 11, 2001.

My proposition is: at a time of great speculative expectations along with a general naivete about what were the dark forces operating in the world around us, there was a collapse in individualism and a waning of self-assurance. This has led us as a society, to becoming more dependent on authority sources and allowing the rise of demagogues and ideologists.

Here today, science like most other human endeavors is reflective of the social realm in which it operates, and, science, as it had once been known, i.e. a Feynman integrity model, has devolved to the Mann model: relativistic, authoritarian, stifling progress.

Insight alone is not sufficient to recover from this stumble. Dogged articulation of the evolving facts as we know them can and will lead to science integrity and back onto a road of human social and scientific progress.

Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by Don Monfort

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(ridiculous moderation, just fill in the blank with your best epithet)

This is farcical:

“Ken D, Syria has given up chemical weapons and the alternative was not just sanctions, so for Iran to give up nuclear material when the alternative is just sanctions, that is a good deal.
Don M, if you think Iran is going to be happy with anything Israel is happy with, dream on. That won’t happen, and you will wait a long time while Iran build up their stocks before such an attempt is finally given up as a waste of time. We have the middle ground where neither are happy, but that is where the deal is best for everyone else, and the timing is critical.”

Syria gave up chemical weapons because they couldn’t make effective use of them without suffering almost complete international condemnation and their continued use would have almost certainly resulted in multi-national bombing, increased support for the rebellion and Assad hanging from a lamp post.

Iran has not given up nuclear material. They still have the infrastructure in place to produce a bomb when they choose to do so. In theory, it will just take them a little longer, after they make the decision. And they get the benefit of hundreds of billions of dollars to fund long range ballistic missile development, terrorism and other forms of mischief and they still hate us and shout death to America, etc. But maybe they are just kidding.

When this farce started the U.S. position was the same as Israel’s: dismantling of Iran’s capability to produce nuclear weapons and a 24/7 anytime, anywhere ironclad inspections regime. The plan was not to work out some deal that would make the nutty ayatollahs happy. But that is exactly what we did and only an _____ would think it’s a good deal for us.

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by Hifast

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Reblogged this on <a href="https://hifast.wordpress.com/2015/08/12/the-adversarial-method-versus-feynman-integrity/" rel="nofollow">Climate Collections</a>.

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by zentgraf2

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Climate Science has no institutional system to require hucksters and advocates of all stripes to debate directly and openly. The public doesn’t see “point – counterpoint”. When most research funding comes from government agencies that have “taken a position” scientists are coerced to avoid a Feynman approach to their work. Until that changes, we will simply have to wait till the climate itself reveals the truth. Man is playing small ball here.

Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by chuckrr (@chuckerenno)

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“Then there are the extremists – they’ll never accept any kind of deal and have their hearts set on war”
Libs seem incapable of making an argument that isn’t based on straw men..Its the “deal” or war. If your not for the deal you are for war. Show me the quotes of anyone opposed to the deal that advocates war. I see plenty of quotes from the Iranians advocating the destruction of Israel and the US, but the reverse, not so much. The delusion seems to be fomented in the minds of people like Michael and Jim and unfortunately our supreme leader. The extremists…anyone that disagrees with the supreme leader.

Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Don Monfort

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“I can’t believe you’re still arguing over what really amounts to semantics”

It’s not semantics. Hockeypuck doesn’t get the basics of radiative physics. I think dyslexia affects his reading and his logic. Or some other screw is loose.

Comment on Will the President’s Clean Power Plan save consumers money? by Michael

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“The plan was not to work out some deal that would make the nutty ayatollahs happy” – don don

But they aren’t. The ‘mad mullah’s’ are not happy about Iran giving up nuclear power (any NPT signatory is allowed to develop nuclear power) and the madmen of the west aren’t happy about a non-military solution.

You’re in fine company….


Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by paulg23

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There is no policy relevance to climate or any other science. Politics and science are immiscible.

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by David Rutledge

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Hi Judy,

“How we can bring Feynman integrity back to policy relevant climate science is a considerable challenge.”

Judy, it is an impossible dream. In the years after the CRU emails were released I gave many seminars on energy supplies to groups of climate scientists, and I always included a group of slides analyzing and criticizing different aspects of the emails. Friends told me they could see the audiences bristle when I did that. I cannot recall receiving the slightest acknowledgement, publicly or privately, from a single climate scientist in those audiences that there was any bad behavior in the emails. I did get attacks from the climate scientists, publicly and privately, stating that their opponents were bad people doing bad science and that they should be kept from publishing. This is the same attitude that was apparent in the emails.

At Caltech, Feynman’s ghost is still with us, and in my classes I show his videos on the nature of physical law and pseudoscience. Climate science today is classic pseudoscience. There are enough adjustable parameters for climate science to explain, in the statistical sense, past behavior to some extent. However, I have not seen the successful predictions that I expect from physical laws and validated engineering models. It is also classic junk science. The adjustable parameters allow the projections of catastrophe and the calculation of policy impacts that are required for climate scientists to maintain their prestige, their power, and their funding.

Dave

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by Paul Matthews

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I’m not sure what your objection is Arthur. Romer does use ‘advocate’ 3 times, as quoted in the post.
Here are some excerpts from Romer’s Feynman-integrity post, which seem to fit the climate science scenario perfectly:

“I am trying hard to keep lines of communication open with economist friends who are supporters of … It would be very useful if some of them were willing to respond publicly. As I will note below, even silence is a form of response.”

“My conjecture is that the fundamental problem … is that a type of siege mentality encouraged people in this group to ignore criticism from the outside and fostered a definition of in-group loyalty that delegitimized the open criticism that is an essential part of the scientific method. Once this mentality got established, it fed on itself.”

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by scotts4sf

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As a senior well respected professional the costs of supporting scientific integrity are not that significant. The loss of peers who are irritated by the response to the choice of issues will subside with time. The real costs are to the young professionals who may be discarded from assignments or potential promotions if they dare exhibit non tribe behavior in support of a Feynman issue. But this is a slippery slope that moves from climate temperature impacts of carbon over to false cost estimates of potential electrical cost savings in 20 years to coverup of design flaws that eventually cost lives. It goes on in many professions. Lots of ethics problems in the world more serious and dangerous to young practitioners. But very nice for an acclaimed economists to bring up the ethics issues.
Scott

Comment on The adversarial method versus Feynman integrity by Arthur Smith

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I see no lack of open criticism in climate science. Read the IPCC reports or some actual papers and it’s clear they hue very closely to the Feynman standard. If there’s a case where it hasn’t happened, like the boundedness example Romer points out in economics (and I’m aware of some others involving people like Richard Tol) please point it out. And the minor errors in early hockey stick papers is not anywhere close to what Romer is talking about, for the record.

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