If it’s come out just below Tony’s comment then it works.
Actually, IIRC I replied to Tony’s comment, so yours may have worked. It came out right under mine.
Comment on Ins and outs of the ivory tower by AK
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Comment on Ins and outs of the ivory tower by AK
Why not try replying to Bozo’s comment? Since it’s later than the one beneath it, you know there’s nothing already chained to it.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by jim2
WTI price hasn’t changed much from last week. The year-out contango is up to $6 from $3 last week, placing a bit more pressure for oil to move to storage.
9/4/15
OIL 45.78
BRENT 49.41
NAT GAS 2.646
RBOB GAS 1.4138
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Comment on Ins and outs of the ivory tower by blueice2hotsea
willard – That’s why it’s called libertarianism, after all.
No. Libertarianism was coined as an epithet label for the antithesis of Necessarianism. Neccessarians abhor self-determination. Instead, people’s lives are to be determined for them by force, in accordance with the will of God, government and by the duly appointed.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by jim2
From the article:
…
Despite a reduction in well completions this year, Liberty Oilfield Services pumped 75 percent more fracks in the first seven months of 2015 compared with the same period last year. Its client list has doubled to about four dozen companies from last summer.
…
Whereas drillers previously pumped 300 to 500 pounds of frack fluid per foot, they might now pump 1,500 to 2,000 pounds per foot, said Will Green, energy analyst at Stephens Investment Bank.
“When people see these enhanced completions take place, the idea among skeptics was maybe you were pulling forward the resource” on the front end “and not benefiting longer-term well results,” he said.
Read MoreSaudi Arabia hangs on with cheap oil—but for how long?
However, he noted that in the final quarter of 2014, Concho Resources reported an 18 percent increase in average 30-day production rates in the Northern Delaware Basin in Texas and New Mexico from the previous year. At the same time, it saw a 75 percent jump in cumulative production over 180 days for wells that used enhanced completion methods.
That means Concho not only achieved a much higher rate in the first 30 days, but a much shallower decline in subsequent production, Green said.
…
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/02/frackers-change-methods-in-imploding-oil-market.html
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn
Yes, TE, credit to Credit Suisse, a very clear and understandable way to show the data.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by harrywr2
Peak population in China is projected by some to occur as early as 2023. Peak working age population already occurred.
One would assume a serious slump in the housing industry in the run up to peak population. Steel and cement account for a large chunk of Chinese coal consumption.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn
I wouldn’t assert “a majority” from a survey of 1000 people in a population of 60 million. 51 % with error bounds of perhaps +/- 3 at a guess. But, as an ex-pat Pom, I’m with the 51%.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn
That’s what I usually try to do, though my number of posts today might be immoderate.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn
So next we’ll have research into sustainable wind. Get your bid in early to beat the rush.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn
As an economist who is not a modeller but has directed modelling and been involved with many modellers and modelling results, I’m astounded how often I found glaring errors which were obvious to me but overlooked by the modellers. The first essential is to understand that of which you speak. My cohort at LSE (1961-64) was the last for which A-level Maths was not a requirement. At the academic level, the discipline has become more and more mathematical, less about understanding real-world relationships and implications. Those who taught me at LSE were all advisers to government and/or business, the courses were rooted in the real world. Not so much in recent decades – graduates I recruited in the 80s and 90s said that they learned more from three months with me than in 3-4 years of uni. But the CAGW scene seems even more model-dependent.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by beththeserf
Calling politicians, hot air urgently required!
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
“Energy stocks top performers in college endowments”
Got to be a contender for “silliest study ever” among Prof Curry’s links. The big conclusions was “Therefore, this study has shown that investments by college and university endowments in oil and natural gas company shares have produced the consistently highest returns of all their assets.”
In other words, during the bull phase of a commodity cycle — stocks in that industry do very well. If oil prices don’t recover to the high $50s (WTI) next year, we’ll have bankruptcies in the industry. If they stay below $60, which they might for the few years — or a decade — the sector will return poor results.
The study was conducted for Dr. Robert Shapiro, chairman of the economic consulting firm Sonecon, for the American Petroleum Institute. So the results shouldn’t surprise anyone.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
The news about China is good news -- and suggests that the scary RCP8.5 in the IPCC's AR5 is not likely. Oddly it is often described at the "business as usual" scenario, the basis for hundreds of scary stories -- likely only if you believe our future energy source is mostly coal.
<a href="http://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/07/13/coal-climate-apocalypse-87192/" rel="nofollow">I pointed out the improbability of this</a> -- as clearly stated in the literature. The warmistas went wild, crying "China China China". Foolishly, as usual. The world -- and China -- are moving away from coal. RCP should be considered an unlikely scenario (for many reasons).
Data from the Energy Information Agency shows that <a href="http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=1&pid=1&aid=2" rel="nofollow">world coal consumption fell by 98 million short tons</a>, (1.2%) in 2012, following peaking in both poor and rich nations.
North American use peaked in 2005; 2012 was down an astonishing 21% since then (USA use in Q1 2015 was down 24% from Q1 2005).
Europe peaked in 2007, after 6 of its 9 largest coal-consuming nations peaked: UK and Poland in 2006; Czech, Germany, and Greece in 2007; and Turkey in 2011.
Africa peaked in 2008 and Asia in 2011.
... The results of the Chinese government’s effort to develop cleaner sources of energy can be seen in China’s coal consumption: down 1.9% in 2012, up slightly in 2013, <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-boomtowns-fade-as-china-declares-war-on-pollution/" rel="nofollow">down 2.9% in 2014</a>, and<a href="http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2015/05/14/china-coal-consumption-drops-further-carbon-emissions-set-to-fall-by-equivalent-of-uk-total-in-one-year/" rel="nofollow"> down almost 8% in the first 4 months of 2015</a>. Their economy continues to grow (grow fast, although slowing), while coal use decreases (not just slows).
... China has been the largest driver of global commodity consumption, including coal. Excluding China, world coal use is flat for 5 years, up only 13% for 10 years, and up only 7% in the previous 25 years.
The Energy Information Agency has not yet posted global coal data for 2013.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Peter Lang
Where on Earth did Judith dig up this title?
“Molten salt thorium reactors are nearing commercialization. [link] …
The opening sentence of the article it’s self says:
“Researchers say they could build a prototype of a molten salt reactor, a safer, cleaner nuclear power option, in 10 years.”
Note that it is “researchers claim” and “build a prototype” not “reach commercially viable”. Researchers invariably makes such wild and unrealistic claims. Proponents of a technology almost always overstate the case foi the technology they believe it. And researchers are not competent to estimate how log it takes a new technology to become commercial viable.
Here is a much more realistic and knowledgeable assessment of how far away the new breeds of reactors are from becoming commercially viable.
Molten salt fast reactor technology – an overview
http://euanmearns.com/molten-salt-fast-reactor-technology-an-overview/
And here’s the authors short bio:
Hubert Flocard
A former student of the Ecole Normale Supérieure (St Cloud) Hubert Flocard is a retired director of research at the French basic science institute CNRS. He worked mostly in the theory of Fermi liquids with a special emphasis on nuclear physics. He has taught at the French Ecole Polytechnique and at the Paris University at Orsay. He was for several years a visiting fellow of the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and he spent a year as visiting professor at the theory department of MIT (Cambridge). He has worked as an editor for the journals Physical Review C and Review of Modern Physics (APS, USA) and Reports on Progress in Physics (IoP, UK). He has chaired the nuclear physics scientific committee INTC at CERN (Switzerland). When the French parliament asked CNRS to get involved in research on civilian nuclear energy, he was charged to set up and to manage the corresponding CNRS interdisciplinary programme. He still acts as a referee to evaluate research projects submitted to Euratom.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by thomaswfuller2
China is frequently mistaken when reporting coal consumption statistics. We would all be better off waiting for the revisions before writing at length about China and coal.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Peter Lang
Interesting point. Thank you. Australia’s economy and therefore my superannuation pensions, are highly dependent on a robust Chinese economy.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
Thomas,
The vast majority of economic reporting consists of writing about preliminary data subject to revisions. Revisions to even U.S. data are subject to large revisions.
I doubt many will heed your advice not to even “write” about trends until the final data arrives.
In any case, the trend away from coal is a global one — and China has strong reasons to continue its conversion away from coal.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by jim2
A sense of humor is a good thing.
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Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by jim2
I know, use batteries to power giant fans!
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