dont forget my nickname is moshpit. My primary concern here is the lack of skepticism on the part of skeptics. If you want to estimate ECR and TCR from observations there is a way to do it. You have to start by specifying an underlying physical model. Girma’s approach is NON PHYSICAL. in his approach you have Temperature on the left hand side of the equation and Time and Angle on the right hand side. We know this cannot be physically correct. We know that the curve has merely been fit to the available data. It explains nothing.
When you have an underlying model ( equation) that is physically constrained you can derive many hypothesis from it. So, very simply
you should be able to ask Girma “Given your model, what will the temperature be if the sun increases its output by 3 watts? and , if he has a physically realistic model he should be able to answer. Or, Girma, If we have a huge volcano or more S02 in the atmosphere what does your model predict? But He cant answer that because he doesnt have a model that is quantified over known parameters. His model is quantified over
Year and Angle. That is the temperature is a function of the year and the sin() and cos() of an angle. no physical parameters. you should ask him, what does you model predict for the holocene? for the LGM?
To do that you have to model the PHYSICAL SYSTEM. We know on inspection that Girmas model cannot be true because it does not take the correct form. It’s not an explanation. An explanation would show how the earths final temperature is a function of known quantities. It might be a incomplete explnation, it might be inexact here and there, but it should at least have the correct form and should operate over parameters known to influence the climate.
For example: here is a nice little simple equation to get the Top speed of a car
http://craig.backfire.ca/pages/autos/drag
Those equations are physically realistic. Yes they are simplified, but
you will note how they are dimensionally correct. You will also note
that they allow you to make various predictions. predictions that are tied to the quantification structure of the formulas. What happens if I increase the drag? what happens if I increase the frontal area? the horse power..
As a model its pretty simple. a model is nothing more than a set of equations that capture physical laws. By capturing physical laws one phenomena ( speed) is EXPLAINED in terms of other phenomena
Horsepower: frontal area, friction, drag, etc. That is what science does.
It explains X in terms of y,z,p,q,r,z.. We test this by varying the parameters: what happens if we increase y? decrease p.
