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Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by climatereason

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Judith

Horst makes an extraordinary number of generalised comments and I think this sniping and heavy artillery fire by a variety of commentators has detracted from the thread. Some of the criticism may well be valid, but because we are discussing a whole book with many complex ideas and subjects there has been relatively little homing in on any genuine problems the book may or may not have on specific topics.

Can I suggest that one chapter is taken as a stand alone article in the next few days, in the hope that people will focus on it and confine their criticism to the data contained within it and not go off on some unrelated subject.

Because of its importance I would suggest that Chapter Ten ‘The Ocean and sea level rise and ph’ is showcased. This starts on page 207. It also has the advantage that it may well be that those who are commenting may not yet have reached as far as page 207 so it will be new ground for them

During their comments people might actually like to be helpful and point out where, for example, there is ‘poor sentence structure, logic flow and lack of coherent content.’

tonyb


Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by jeez

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Nick Stokes

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“I would trust his biological oceanographic expertise “
Yes, he clearly knows a lot more about this than about temperature measurement. One point to note about “ocean acidification”:
“This term, perfectly proper chemically”

He has the right idea about the reactions, unlike those who rely on dictionaries for their chemistry. He says:
“it is essential that changing calcite saturation should be considered when predicting the consequences of changing pH of ocean water”

Yes, calcite (and carbonate) is what matters, not pH. But the fact is that one molecule of CO2 added essentially removes on molecule of calcite (or potential molecule, based on CO3–).

“But if one thing is sure in climate science, it is that without a global economic meltdown or pandemic, atmospheric CO2 will continue to increase and the pH of ocean water will continue to change accordingly”

True, but it has actually nothing to do with climate science.

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Nick Stokes

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It’s slow on the metabolic timescale, but fast enough on the scale of months or years of ocean processes. And it isn’t even clear that CO2 needs to be hydrated before reacting with carbonate.

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Don Monfort

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“Loneliness, loneliness is such a waste of time, o-oh yeah.”—–Solomon Burke, Cry to Me, 1962

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Horst Graben (@Graben_Horst)

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Horst Graben (@Graben_Horst)

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Horst Graben (@Graben_Horst)

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Longhurst writes much more clearly here in his area of specialty. That indicates he has a limited understanding of the other chapters and sections where the writing is convoluted.


Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by angech2014

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Mosher various quotes

“Bizzare. The sites dont match perfectly.”

“That is why you can for example pick 110 PRISTINE sites in the US
(CRN) and predict the rest of the country: Including
100s of other pristine sites ( RCRN) and 1000’s of “bad” sites.
What’s it tell you when you can start with 60 samples and get
one time series… then add 300 and get the same,,, then add
3000 and get the same…. then add 30000 and get the same?
whats that tell you about sampling?
Whats it tell you when you can pick 5000 and then predict any
other 5000 or 10000?”

Um, it tells you that the sites do match perfectly?

“You take 100 perfect sites. They predict the US average will be
74.5 F.You now average the 20,000 “bad” sites. GUESS WHAT
their average will be 74.5F”.

Um, it tells you that the sites do match perfectly?

“Create a synthetic field of realistic climate time series data.
For that you have a Known average of the field.
Take a sub sample.
Use various method to estimate the full field given the sample.”

Um, it tells you WHY the SYNTHETIC sites do match perfectly?

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by AnonyMoose

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Upwelling is mentioned once, but CO2-rich upwelling happens often in many places. This should be regularly exposing many creatures to interesting environments.

Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by harkin1

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I don’t think exploring the thought instead of the format is what he wants to do. Everybody else saw the explanation for the exclamation points but it was just too good to pass up as non-productive ridicule.

A) COMPLAIN.

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by dalyplanet2

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Willard

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Speaking of areas of specialty, an ecouraging remark: <blockquote> I think that those who now deeply worried about the observed changes in pH and calcite saturation in today’s ocean <strong>might well take some comfort from a reading of the palaeontological literature, into which I have no more than dipped my toe.</strong> </blockquote> I don't always seek comfort in the lichurchur, but when I do, I only need to dip my toe.

Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by hockeyschtick

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The chief bunny rabett says, “Ah no. What happens is that the excited molecule collides with O2 or N2 (or whatever else) and converts it’s vibrational energy to kinetic energy. The internal excited energy of the molecule is transformed into thermal motion of the molecules nearby through collisions. This takes about a microsecond, a millionth of a second and is roughly a million times more likely than the molecule directly emitting IR light.”

Only off by a factor of ~3 orders of magnitude. According to climate denier Princeton physicist Will Happer, it is on the order of one BILLION times more likely for CO2 to transfer quanta of E via collisions with N2/O2 in the troposphere than via relaxation and emission of a photon.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/09/why-greenhouse-gases-dont-trap-heat-in.html

Bunny hole continues, “In the same way unexcited greenhouse gas molecules can be excited by collisions into a state where they emit. It turns out that the rate at which excited molecules can form and their emission spectrum is determined by the temperature, so by looking at the spectrum at any location we can tell the temperature of the layer. If we look above the atmosphere we can measure the temperature and the level at which radiation at a particular wavelength is emitted to space”

Ah no, the bending mode transitions of e.g. CO2 are FIXED line-emissions centered ALWAYS at 15 microns! The surrounding kinetic temperature of the atmosphere from 0-100km is a MINIMUM of 220K in the tropopause (per 1976 US Std Atm), much WARMER than the so-called “partial equivalent blackbody emitting temperature” of CO2 15 micron emission (if CO2 was a TRUE BB, an emitting temperature equivalent of 193K) all the way from the surface to the edge of space! Thus, CO2 is absorbing/emitting as many 15 micron photons as it possibly can ALL the way and at every single geopotential height ALL the way from 0-100km, not limited by the surrounding kinetic temperature of the atmosphere which is >193K all the way from 0-100km!

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by dalyplanet2


Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by hockeyschtick

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Oh, and the quanta of E transferred preferrentially by CO2 to N2/O2 INCREASE the kinetic expansion, rising, and COOLING of these warmed air parcels, which thereby ACCELERATES convective COOLING of the surface.

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by matthewrmarler

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Nothing about ocean plant life, like kelp and phytoplankton?

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by richardswarthout

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Nick Stokes

“Yes, he clearly knows a lot more about this than about temperature measurement.”

On the previous post I wrote that a summary of chapter 4 could be:

1. The global temperature index provides little useful information about the earth’s climate.

2. There is not a single authoritative index; we don’t know what the global surface temperatures are or what they have been.

Do you disagree? Do you think that there is a single authoritative index is and that it provides useful information about the earth’s climate?

Regards,

Richard

Comment on Ocean acidification discussion thread by Willard

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Thanks, Planet. Howeverm it’s not the Science paper, which may be this one:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel3087/feel3087.shtml

Tough to know if that’s the one the Author had in mind, since (1) it’s not cited in the text; (2) it’s cited by W15, the authority in note 577, but not related to their claim that studies have shown that, in general, shelled molluscs are particularly sensitive to these changes in marine chemistry; (3) Feely, the lead author of that Science article, is also cited favorably in note 576.

***

Moreover, there are 9 occurences of “corrosive” in F08. For instance, we can read in conclusion:

These observations clearly show that seasonal upwelling processes enhance the advancement of the corrosive deep water into broad regions of the North American western continental shelf. Because the region experiences seasonal periods of enhanced aragonite undersaturation, it is important to understand how the indigenous organisms deal with this exposure and whether future increases in the range and intensity of the corrosiveness will affect their survivorship.

This does not look like an alarming report to me.

***

Besides, here’s the abstract of W15:

Ocean acidification is a global, long-term problem whose ultimate solution requires carbon dioxide reduction at a scope and scale that will take decades to accomplish successfully. Until that is achieved, feasible and locally relevant adaptation and mitigation measures are needed. To help to prioritize societal responses to ocean acidification, we present a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary vulnerability analysis of coastal human communities in the United States. We focus our analysis on shelled mollusc harvests, which are likely to be harmed by ocean acidification. Our results highlight US regions most vulnerable to ocean acidification (and why), important knowledge and information gaps, and opportunities to adapt through local actions. The research illustrates the benefits of integrating natural and social sciences to identify actions and other opportunities while policy, stakeholders and scientists are still in relatively early stages of developing research plans and responses to ocean acidification.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n3/abs/nclimate2508.html

This does not sound like a refutation of Feely’s studies.

Comment on New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science by Roscoe Shaw

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The temp increase 1908 to 1941 was virtually the same duration and magnitude as the temp increase 1977 to 2005. The first was almost certainly “natural” and the second likely somewhat anthropogenic. So, Joseph, the answer is the last time it warmed naturally this fast was when my mom was a kid.

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