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Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Science or Fiction

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Regarding Cowtan and Way I think it is more correct to use the word
extrapolation:

(2) Extrapolation by kriging and a hybrid method guided by the satellite data have been examined. Both provide good temperature reconstructions at short ranges. Over longer ranges the hybrid method performs well over land and kriging performs well for SSTs.
(3) Extrapolation over land/ocean boundaries is problematic; however, observations and reanalyses confirm that air temperatures over ice are better reconstructed from land- based air temperature readings. Since the highest latitude observations are land-based, reconstruction from the blended land/ocean data is realistic.


Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by PA

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Science or Fiction | November 3, 2015 at 6:04 pm |
You can add to it the words of wisdom from Popper:
“Believers in inductive logic assume that we arrive at natural laws by generalization from particular observations.

We burn down half the rainforest, pave over 3% of the land and clear off or alter about 30%, change the hydrology so much we are changing weather patterns, emit so much particulate the air is black (US), then let it clear, then turn it black again (China). on top of natural oscillation and natural forcing that are badly understood.

About the only thing for sure – we have plenty of time to sort it out. There is some CO2 warming. Beyond that nothing has been proved. Attribution of warming between the various causes is sort of a joke. Until we can properly attribute forcing among the various causes, prediction will not be a valuable exercise.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by catweazle666

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Joseph

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A trend is a trend is a trend. It’s not magic.. What are they doing wrong in their calculator?

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Joseph

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I even went back to 1997 got .127 per decade for UAH. I say the evidence for no warming is just not apparent to me..

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Joseph

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oops that should .107 per decade

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Don Monfort

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You just keep repeating the same old misrepresentations/lies. You will only fool other fools. Carry on, spamboy.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Mike Flynn

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Some people assert that CO2 can only absorb EMR of specific wavelengths. Some people, particularly people with physics degrees, should know better.

Trying to find something simple but relatively correct, I came upon the following –

“How fast an atom (and electrons) vibrates determines the oscillation (frequency) of the EM radiation it emits.

A real object contains atoms that are oscillating at a variety of frequencies. They have various amounts of kinetic energy. The temperature of the object reflects the average kinetic energy of its atoms. That average determines the general frequency of EM radiation it emits, what colour it glows when it’s hot.

The emission spectrum of black body EM radiation reflects a whole variety of frequencies, or wavelengths, of photons, with a majority vibrating at some particular wavelength. The peak wavelength is the average energy of the atoms in the object. The overall average of thermal energies is what the thermometer reads. There are no forbidden photon wavelengths in black body radiation. Thermal radiation, and the black body spectrum of that radiation, depends only on the temperature of the object, not on its elemental make up.”

Note the final sentence –

“Thermal radiation, and the black body spectrum of that radiation, depends only on the temperature of the object, not on its elemental make up.”

Anyone that thinks that CO2 can only emit certain wavelengths at say, 20 C, and that measuring the presence of these wavelengths can establish that it is CO2, rather than O2, CO, or even C, in a pitch black remote environment, is bonkers. Probably a Warmist.

Discussions involving the well known absorption and emission spectra of gasses are irrelevant, in the context of unexcited gases.

Excited neon emits a characteristic lighted. Non excited neon is indistinguishable by emitted radiation from CO2 at, say, 20 C.

No warming at all due to CO2.

Man and his works affect many things. Weather and hence climate is probably one. Increased heat around the globe is another. Albedo changes relating in both local heating – areas of roads, buildings, cleared land – and cooling – greening of deserts, reflective particulates in atmosphere – affect the surface and atmosphere.

Try to quantify the impact, and you will assuredly fail. Try to predict the future of an unpredictable chaotic system, and you will assuredly fail.

VP’s effort is laudable, but ultimately pointless, as are all efforts based on false premises.

Cheers.


Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Mike Flynn

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hockeyschtick,

Feynman wrote no such thing.

Cheers.

Comment on Kiribati crisis: the blame game by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

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It is possible to diminish the ego, but it will always remain a mistake to try socialism.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by hockeyschtick

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Oh yes he did MF:

Feynman: “the pressure is not constant, it must increase as the altitude is reduced, because it has to hold, so to speak, the weight of all the gas above it. That is the clue by which we may determine how the pressure changes with height. If we take a unit area at height h, then the vertical force from below, on this unit area, is the pressure P. The vertical force per unit area pushing down at a height h+dh would be the same, in the absence of gravity, but here it is not, because the force from below must exceed the force from above by the weight of gas in the section between h and h+dh. Now mg is the force of gravity on each molecule, where gis the acceleration due to gravity, and ndh is the total number of molecules in the unit section. So this gives us the differential equation Ph+dh−Ph= dP= −mgndh. Since P=nkT, and T is constant, we can eliminate either P or n, say P, and get
dndh=−mgkTn
for the differential equation, which tells us how the density goes down as we go up in energy.
We thus have an equation for the particle density n, which varies with height, but which has a derivative which is proportional to itself. Now a function which has a derivative proportional to itself is an exponential, and the solution of this differential equation is
n=n0e−mgh/kT.(40.1)
Here the constant of integration, n0, is obviously the density at h=0 (which can be chosen anywhere), and the density goes down exponentially with height.
Note that if we have different kinds of molecules with different masses, they go down with different exponentials. The ones which were heavier would decrease with altitude faster than the light ones. Therefore we would expect that because oxygen is heavier than nitrogen, as we go higher and higher in an atmosphere with nitrogen and oxygen the proportion of nitrogen would increase. This does not really happen in our own atmosphere, at least at reasonable heights, because there is so much agitation which mixes the gases back together again. It is not an isothermal atmosphere.,/b. Nevertheless, there is a tendency for lighter materials, like hydrogen, to dominate at very great heights in the atmosphere, because the lowest masses continue to exist, while the other exponentials have all died out (Fig. 40–2).”

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/07/feynman-explains-how-gravitational.html

Feynman quotes Maxwell extensively in the same chapter, and calculates a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution exactly as I have for a PURE N2 atmosphere:

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/11/why-greenhouse-gases-dont-affect.html

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by opluso

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even the satellites agree with me!

6 months do not a “very very very long time” make. Perhaps your prediction was not quite as bold as I presumed.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Vaughan Pratt

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@ordvic: I can easily (and believably) see that your plot shows this to be true but how can one dismiss the strength of solar cycles during that same period? Secondly, If natural variability had something to do with temperature rise before 1950 why would it suddenly disappear after? It’s not logical.

Nature is only scrutable when it suits her.

However during this afternoon’s faculty meeting on hiring I got to thinking (strange how the mind wanders during faculty meetings) that it was interesting that the strongest rise in recent TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) was for the period 1900-1950, after which it flattened out except for the 20-year solar cycles.

It rather resembled the discrepancy up to 1950.

So I thought, when I get home, let’s see what happens if I subtract TSI (or at least the anomaly relative to mean TSI since 1950). So I subtracted it directly from HadCRUT4, suitably scaled, with both then smoothed as one signal, and obtained the following plot.

It greatly reduced the gap before 1950!

This should also answer ristvan’s comment just below yours.

In the immortal words of Mug Wump, who was by far the most prolific contributor to the Amazon blog “Global warming is nothing but a hoax and a scare tactic”, which ran for years even before Climate Etc was a gleam in Judy’s eye, “It’s the Sun, stupid.”

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Faustino aka Genghis Cunn

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Had me confused there, clerestory, no a.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by hockeyschtick

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Donnie boy, you are by far the biggest fool & spamboy on this site, who is obviously clueless about elementary school physics, thinks cold heats hot, all photons are created equal, CO2 causes an impossible DECREASE of entropy, photons behave as steel balls, static & closed gas cylinders in equilibrium are analogous to the 100km atmosphere NOT in vertical equilibrium, temperature isn’t a function of pressure, gravity doesn’t cause the lapse rate (even though the gravitational acceleration constant is IN the lapse rate equation), etc., etc. ad nauseum…

And Donnie spamboy thinks it’s just an unbelievable, amazing, incredible, huge “coincidence” that the HS greenhouse eqn perfectly reproduces the 1976 US Standard Atmosphere, the only atmospheric model ever verified with millions of observations.


Comment on Informed Consent for Climate Policy by Informed Consent for Climate Policy | Enjeux énergies et environnement

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Mike Flynn

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Oh no he didn’t. He points out that under the influence of gravity, the atmosphere is denser closer to the Earth, and less dense further away.

He further points out that the atmosphere is not, in fact, isothermal, which is trivially obvious given its location between a heat source at a temperature in excess of 3000 K (the Earth’s core), and the 3 K or so of outer space.

Now all matter, whether subject to gravity or not, radiates energy in accordance with its absolute temperature.

Gravity has no effect on this – neither increasing, nor decreasing.

Maybe you are not taking into account the reason for the atmosphere not being isothermal. Remove all heat input, it will cool to 0 K in spite of the force of gravity.

Cheers.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Scott Basinger

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by Vaughan Pratt

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@DLH: If we do not know what caused the 40% of warming from 1880-1950, why should we expect anything different since 1950?

You’re quoting Judy’s first point, which as per my post needs to be restated in order to be correct.

Apropos of either of the two restatements that I proposed, fluctuations with periods of 60 years or less cannot influence climate averaged over 2070-2130. Therefore those interested in likely temperature in 2100 would have to be interested in its average over less than a 60-year period in order for any ignorance about 1880-1950 to entail ignorance of temperature in 2100.

Comment on Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy by PA

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It was worked.

Then it hiccuped.

I rechecked after your last post and things are ok.

Again your work looks interesting.

If the El Nino is indeed a double humper you will get the laurel wreath and appropriate accolades.

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