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Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by PA

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The more relevant issue is the trend to the adjustments.

I’m fine with adjustment. I’m fine with correcting the adjustments to some extent.

The above chart shows that the whole thing has become a frickin game to the government climate scientists.

1. Algorithms affecting historic data should only be allowed to be adjusted once every 5 or 10 years.
2. The changes (all of them) should be reviewed by an engineering/statistician team familiar with the issues. Changes that are considered incorrect or a bad joke would be rejected.
3. The approved changes will then be implemented.
4. The timing should be set so the updates occur after IPCC meetings.

The whole concept of pause buster adjustments is just ludicrous.

The timing of these adjustments before IPCC meetings is beyond suspicious.

And for the adjusters time should be running out. When the adjusted trend (already 56% of the real trend) becomes equal to the data trend we should RIF the departments involved and outsource it with the instructions “don’t play with the damn algorithms – just make the chart”.

And there you go.


Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by mosomoso

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C’mon, c’mon. Never mind all the fiddly bits.

We have to find out who-did-what in 1910 in case someone does it again. Since the climate’s so anthro, we need to focus on human activities in the pivot year. What were people up to back then? Telephones? Kerosene? We mustn’t evade such an obviously critical point.

1910, people!

Comment on Week in review – science edition by John Carpenter

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Sorry Jim, but the definition of acidic is only when [H+] > [OH-]. And that only happens when pH is < 7. This is high school chemistry basics. When adding acid to a base it is neutralization until you get lower than pH of 7. When adding base to acid it is also called neutralization until pH is greater than 7. You are conflating the definition of what pH is with the definition of acidic.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Turbulent Eddie

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by JCH

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PDO ramp up; solar; some anthro; OHT

Comment on Week in review – science edition by omanuel

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The push to justify adjustments to global temperatures before the Paris Conference may backfire.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Don Monfort

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Mr. Bob has got his eye on these youngsters.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by RiHo08

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Tonight we left the hockey game @ 6;50 PM and my car temperature reading was 28 F. The hockey arena is at city center. The half moon in a clear sky provided light to my vehicle. A three mile drive into the suburban region and the car temperature reading was 24 F.

It appears to me that the late Fall, early winter night time temperature readings, particularly to determine the Urban Heat Island effect, is substantial and probably provides a better assessment of the Urban Heat Island effect than daytime readings.

I would be interested in the night time temperatures being collated and reported than the daytime temperature. Is there such an animal?


Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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The real world is complex, and the point of science is to understand it. Remember, all of this is discussing trends over a relatively short period, which are highly sensitive to changes in the underlying data.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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Raising buoy values to ships or lowering ship values to buoys is nominally trend-neutral. As mentioned in this post Kennedy tested the order of combination for HadSST3 and found no meaningful difference.

Here is a toy model example that roughly matches what happened in the real world showing this:

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Wagathon

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Adjusting the record with number of days per year that the Tioga Pass was closed, the yearly start dates for Washington DC cherry blossom blooms and the number of malaria deaths per year in sub-Saharan Africa in children under 5 years of age might increase the accuracy the NASA temperature record even more… whatever shows more warming, right?

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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Regarding OISST:

“At CPC there is a daily OISST dataset that is used in our models. However, this is a more recent product. Before the daily product existed, there was (and still is) a weekly OISST dataset. This weekly product is different entirely and is not simply the seven-day average of the daily OISST for a variety of reasons (see references below). Since both of these products are satellite-based — they do not measure sea surface temperatures directly — there are adjustments done before we get the final SSTs (these adjustments change from month to month). Different methods and statistical techniques in the daily and weekly product lead to different numbers in the two similarly named datasets. For instance, ship and buoy SSTs are measured differently and at slightly different water depths, thus there is a statistical difference of ship-buoy SSTs of about 0.12ᵒC. The weekly OISST was developed when ships were the main source of in situ observations, and there is no ship-buoy SST adjustment in it. On the other hand, the latter daily OISST was developed when more buoy data became available, and there is a ship-buoy SST adjustment in it, as in the latest version of ERSST.”

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/exactly-same-completely-different-why-we-have-so-many-different-ways

So weekly (and presumably monthly) OISST would not have buoy corrections.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Mike Flynn

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Joseph,

I don’t know about TE, but to conflate human emissions of CO2 in such a way as to imply that climate change (a perfectly natural phenomenon, being simply the average of ever changing weather) is somehow preventable, or even evil in some way, shows you are delusional.

You appear to be in denial of the simple facts that the Earth has cooled since its creation, CO2 is necessary for plant life, and more is better (to a point, of course), and nobody has ever demonstrated the alleged heating effect of CO2.

There is no greenhouse effect. Why would anybody deny it doesn’t exit, apart from deluded Warmists?

Cheers.

Comment on Climate culture by Michael Scott

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Andy, It seems to me that almost all people would like to make some simple kind of distinction between individuals and the culture they inhabit. I would say no, that no one who is not a part of a culture is a human being. Even the reported sightings of feral humans that would occasionally occur in the 19th century always seemed more romanticism than reality to me. The very thoughts that circulate in our head and that we use to think about and shape the world are the preeminent social tool. I am, of course, referring to language. If we were not social, we would not need language. The fact that it is at our core tells us that we are innately social and cultural. In fact, the idea that we believe in the dichotomy between people and their cultural simple tells me, we are in many respects, truly alienated from ourselves. So I guess my point is that “cultures” are not tools that we willy nilly employ, they are us. It just seems that we have very little control and understanding about the workings of our social nature. In my mind, that is our great failing. Even Psychology and the Social Sciences seem unable to find a framework which truly bridges this gap.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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Bob,

Regarding the trend periods shown, 1995-2014 is used because that is the full period of the dataset (where buoys have reasonable spatial coverage). I included it because not showing the trend of the full period graphed would be cherry-picking.

We will be looking at HadSST3 in detail masked to the same areas we have buoy and ERSST data for to look at the differences in more detail. This initial analysis focused on the NOAA adjustments, so we didn’t examine Hadley’s SST series initially.


Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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This comment is rather confused.

1) The IPCC doesn’t publish papers. They publish 1 report every 6 years or so, and occasional special reports on specific topics. As far as I know its been years since they published anything.

2) The IPCC actually has a cutoff for including papers in the reports. Its ~6 months before they are finalized or so, IIRC.

3) Peer-reviewed papers are rarely rushed. They generally have a period of at least 6 months between submission and publication. This was true for the Karl et al paper as well (that all this fuss was about).

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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Mike,

The initial post (in Figure 3) shows uncertainties in trends using a simple OLS approach. For this the trend differences are significant. For more complicated autocorrelation-correcting approaches like AR(1) or other ARMA models it likely depends on the model chosen and the time period, and as Kevin mentions we haven’t done any explicit testing.

Regarding your discussion of CO2, it’s not really germane to this discussion. We are talking about evaluating the effectiveness of adjustments done to ocean temperature records.

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Don Monfort

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The pause that is killing the cause can’t be buried with some vague little adjustments, yimmy. It’s part of history. We all lived through it and the desperate attempts by the red-faced settled science crowd to explain it away. Anyway, it has already done it’s thang. No binding agreement from the Paree party boys and girls, other. No bags of dollars for the third world despots. And The Donald rises, inexorably. Life is good! Sorry, yimmy.

Comment on Week in review – energy and policy edition by jim2

Comment on A buoy-only sea surface temperature record by Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath)

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This is a good point. Short-term trends are quite noisy, and the current El Nino will quickly make the “hiatus” or “pause” discussion rather moot. Looking at longer-term trends is more meaningful and less subject to sub-decadal influences of solar, volcanoes, or ENSO.

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