Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by matthewrmarler

December 15, 2015, 7:43 pm

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and Then There’s Physics: There is no such thing as CAGW. It is a construct, typically used by people who would be called “climate science deniers” if it weren’t for the fact that they whine when people do so.

If AGW will produce no “catastrophes”, what’s the big deal? Why the rush to reduce CO2 emissions?

CAGW, or “catastrophic anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-induced global warming”, is simply a short-hand for all of the catastrophes that COP21 was organized to prevent. Lists of these “hypothetical constructs” (that is, lists of catastrophes that we have been warned of) abound. Without catastrophes, the RCP8.5 scenario is benign, hardly deserving a label such as “worst case”.

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Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by Vaughan Pratt

December 15, 2015, 7:46 pm

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<i>his response was that they were already losing money.</i> Correlation is not causation.

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by matthewrmarler

December 15, 2015, 7:48 pm

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Steven Mosher: <i>interesting thought exercise on pre cautionary principle and such </i> You must have a lot of fun when considering what insurance to buy, and how much.

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3

December 15, 2015, 7:51 pm

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VP, to a devote capitalist, uncompetitive is unsustainable. but I see your point, there are plenty of socialist types in the world that will never admit defeat.

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by PA

December 15, 2015, 7:55 pm

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Well, your log curve was supported by exponential emissions growth that appears to be over.

If you only look at the existing part of your chart it doesn’t look that linear.

And with slowing emissions growth to 2040 and attenuation of emissions after 2040 the log curve will go from looking more loggy and less linear.to actually droopy.

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Brian G Valentine

December 15, 2015, 7:55 pm

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“Don, there were several large El Ninos including 1998, and so there was a lot of natural variability in 1975-2000.”

Jim D,: What could possibly cause “a lot” of “natural” variability in “some” years and not for others? There is nothing to account for that.

If there is nothing to account for it, there is no distinction between “natural” and “unnatural” variability because you can’t point to a relationship with no alternatives

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by Willard

December 15, 2015, 7:59 pm

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> lists of catastrophes that we have been warned of

Denizens (go team!) and other promoters of the CAGW meme colligate a few list of them. A recurring item is the death of the free world as we know it. A few days Matt King Coal was lukewarmingly uncovering a conspiracy to kill the poors. The Editor is currently suffering from a terminological breakdown as we speak.

None of these Hayekian lists are scientific, mind you, a lack that should only bother partisans of the linear model. Right?

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Jim D

December 15, 2015, 8:17 pm

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There was a warming variation from 1985-2000, and a cooling and equally large one, maybe up to 0.2 C, in 2000-2015. That’s how it goes, warming by up to 0.1-0.2 in one decade, followed by cooling up to 0.1-0.2 C. That’s how it will continue, but the background meanwhile is rising relentlessly 0.15-0.2 C per decade and only increasing, so after a while of seeing that, you know that part is the one to pay attention to long-term.

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Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Brian G Valentine

December 15, 2015, 8:23 pm

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Jim D, how do you know this?!!??

Michael Mann wins, Valentine loses, decision called by Jim D

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by Peter Lang

December 15, 2015, 8:24 pm

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Don Montford,

First, I don’t accept that 4C is realistic.

Second it is highly unlikely, almost impossible, and there are far greater risk to deal with.

Third, 4C would not be catastrophic, for the reasons the paleoevidence shows so clearly. The planet was much warmer than this in the past and life thrived.

Fifth, it would take centuries or millenia or millions of years to get there. Sixth, We are not going to get out of the coldhouse phase until the tectonic plates move so that ocean currents can flow around the low latitudes again. That’s tens of millions of years away – I’ll be too old to be concerned about it. :)

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Jim D

December 15, 2015, 8:28 pm

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It’s about linear detrending and whether that represents the forcing of the 20th century at all well. This is the main topic that Steinman was addressing, not the weeds (see this post’s title, for example). Wyatt et al. seem to have capitulated on that point by not defending it, but it was not explicitly raised, so I did.

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Jim D

December 15, 2015, 8:31 pm

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That’s what you get if you remove the forcing correctly. Steinman isn’t the only person to have done this. They all come to the same conclusion: linear detrending is bunk.

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Mike Flynn

December 15, 2015, 8:34 pm

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douglasproctor,

You wrote –

“The decarbonization of the planet – of the planet, for love of Mike! ”

And a mighty Voice from on high spake, and all those not named Mike trembled in terror, for the Voice did say “do not take the name of Mike in vain!”

But seeing as how this Mike agrees with you, feel free. The Petes might complain if you use “for Pete’s sake.”

Cheers.

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by HAS

December 15, 2015, 8:43 pm

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This has little or anything to do with partialing out natural variability. The method won’t do that with any reliability. There aren’t even attempts to develop and test the various proposed relationships using normal experimental design.

And when we get to the “quibble” over the techniques, there is a difference between fitting too simple a model, and using inferences that violate the assumptions of the techniques.

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by David L. Hagen

December 15, 2015, 8:46 pm

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Mike Flynn For quantitive details of CO2 absorption/radiation, see the full CO2 spectra and the use of Line By Line (LBL) radiation models. e.g. <a href="http://webbook.nist.gov/cgi/cbook.cgi?ID=C124389&Type=IR-SPEC&Index=1" rel="nofollow">NIST's summary graph</a> Please take ristvan's cautions seriously and do not use "science denier" language.

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Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by HAS

December 15, 2015, 8:46 pm

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Jim D: “Steinman came up with a nonlinear forcing change to better get at the shape of the natural variability. It was a clear improvement over the linear approximation.”

Actually we don’t know that given the methods used.

Comment on Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated? by Brian G Valentine

December 15, 2015, 8:47 pm

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Jim – all I want for Christmas is your conviction and not this doubting mind that has plagued me since I was 11 years of age

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by popesclimatetheory

December 15, 2015, 8:51 pm

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Peter Lang wrote: We are not going to get out of the coldhouse phase until the tectonic plates move so that ocean currents can flow around the low latitudes again.

Have you been reading my stuff? As more and more warm tropical water circulated in polar regions, over the past fifty million years, that melted more and more cold oceans and provided moisture to support more ice on land which provided more and more cooling. Earth got colder because more and more warm water flowed in Polar regions and caused more and more snowfall.

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by popesclimatetheory

December 15, 2015, 8:56 pm

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You can see that thirty million years ago, the cooling paused and slightly reversed for 15 million years. Then the space between North and South America closed and the circulation was forced more into polar regions and the cooling resumed.
http://popesclimatetheory.com/page81.html

Comment on A closer look at scenario RCP8.5 by matthewrmarler

December 15, 2015, 9:03 pm

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Willard: A recurring item is the death of the free world as we know it. A few days Matt King Coal was lukewarmingly uncovering a conspiracy to kill the poors.

What a bizarre comment.

I realize that I was ambiguous in referring to the lists of catastrophes said to follow CO2 induced warming: I was referring to the catastrophes warned of by Ehrlich, Holdren, Schneider, Hansen, AAAS, etc.and alluded to in the “agreement” from COP21. Are you denying that they have warned of catastrophes that can be listed?