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Comment on The Climate of XMAS by Mike Flynn

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Willis Eschenbach,

Horst Graben encapsulates the Warmist mantra of “deny, divert, obscure” quite nicely.

First he denies what you actually wrote, and substitutes something completely different. Then he diverts the discussion away from what was actually written, and instead talks about dirt bags eating tuna or some such emotional nonsense. Holocaust, anyone?

And then he obscures your original points by by making unsubstantiated assertions, together with a fair serving of ad homs, and garnished with some fairly puerile sarcasm.

Warmists seem to have difficulty differentiating fact from fantasy. This is not surprising, given their confusion between CO2 and pollution of various sorts. Combine this with a demonstrated lack of knowledge of history, physics, mathematics, chemistry, geology, and a few other branches of science, and it is a wonder these people continue to find mugs stupid or gullible enough to continue to pay them for serving up trash dressed up,as treasure.

But it’s Christmas, and even the Horst Grabens can do with a bit of Christmas cheer. Even the mentally retarded deserve our compassion. It’s not their fault they are the way they are.

Cheers.


Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Latimer Alder (@latimeralder)

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JCH says

‘And it was of no concern to farmers in the 19th century’

Sure. I wouldn’t have expected them to worry about it.

Any more than they were concerned about there being 365 days in a year, the seasons, or that the atmospheric concentration of oxygen is about 210,000 ppm.

Because from their perspective such things, including the CO2 concentration were constants. They could not influence them in any meaningful way so just lived with them and did the best they could within the constraints they were given.

But over geologic timescales, these weren’t constants at all. We are at a geologically low level of CO2 as shown here.

So – from a plant perspective – which is the ‘optimum’ CO2 level? The 400 ppm we have now or the much higher levels we experienced in the past?

Please justify your answers.

Comment on The Climate of XMAS by Avory † Blonde (@JJJungleJim)

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Mann’s entire argument is nothing but circular logic. First he shows Fig 1, cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. But he doesn’t show the amounts released into and removed from the atmosphere from other sources. If he did, people would see how the anthro emissions are insignificant. Then he shows Fig 2, that purports to show how much the temperature has risen from the anthro CO2 emissions according to the IPCC models. But these amounts of temperature increases can only be correct if their models are correct. And the models have repeatedly shown very poor out-of-sample forecasting ability.

Comment on What is there a 97% consensus about? by Latimer Alder (@latimeralder)

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‘If you want to convince people that science and reason is on your side then you must act in a way that is consistent with it’.

Climategate: The gift that goes on giving. That shows what a tawdry little bunch of smug shysters are at the heart of ‘climate science’.

Merry Christmas (nearly) everybody.

Comment on The Climate of XMAS by vukcevic

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The warmest year on record?
Not likely, not in Europe

Merry Christmas to one and all .

Comment on The Climate of XMAS by stevepostrel

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Merry Christmas to all. Hope you get the weather you’re looking for whatever it is.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Nick Stokes

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“But he also presented each respective set’s standard deviation (ranging from 0.43 to 0.94) together with the respective standard error calculations (from 0.01 to 0.1).”
Yes. Apart from the S Ocean, with 55 obs, the SD range is .7 to .94. It’s basically a property of the temperauure variability reflected through the differencing of near pairs. The variation in SEM is due to the large difference in numbers of pairs N in each region. To get SE you divide SD by sqrt(N). N varies from about 10000 to 55.

But that is why the SD is in no way an estimator of the uncertainty of global mean. It’s the uncertainty you’d get if you relied on just one pair to measure the bias. No-one would do that. They went to the trouble of assembling 21000 pairs to get the uncertainty down.

“Given that the standard error is derived from the standard deviation I keep wondering what the fuss is all about.”
The fuss is about the difference between 1.7 and 0.01. Near enough for sceptic work, I guess.

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Geoff Sherrington

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Nick,
” …. any interpolation would do for the gaps in SST”
What are your comments on ” …. any extrapolation”?
We seem to be talking about different objectives.
I am looking to the use of stats to provide systematics of the system, which includes the question of whether it is necessary, desirable or irrelevant to use statistics for this type of analysis. There might not be an answer, except one that is terribly bad and possibly misleading.
What is the objective with your comments?


Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by Geoff Sherrington

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Mosomoso.
“Western Antarctica (which is volcanic, but sssh)”
I doubt that the volcanic factor deserves a mention, because of options like –
1. There has been no change in volcanic heat output in the last 1,000 years, so uniformitarianism can be assumed.
2. There has been change but the magnitude cannot be known.
3. We can infer change because there is more ice melting now than before, except we do not know before.
4. The forces typically associated with volcanism of the slow moving type are low in comparison with other heating sources.
Which is all quite academic because we don’t have the data to tell which option is best or worst.

Comment on The Climate of XMAS by Latimer Alder (@latimeralder)

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My Josh calendar just arrived (courtesy of hand-delivery by the main man himself and a kindly Santette).

Fantastic as ever.

If anything, his wit and pencil grow sharper as time goes by.

A must for all who don’t drink the ‘climate science’ Hott-Aid

Comment on Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3

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Nick, “But that is why the SD is in no way an estimator of the uncertainty of global mean. It’s the uncertainty you’d get if you relied on just one pair to measure the bias.”

If you had just one point, you wouldn’t have any indication of uncertainty based on that data. With each additional point you begin to get an indication of the uncertainty based on that set of data. Use an infinite number of points and there will be no uncertainty how uncertain the data set is. SEM only gives you information on the data you are using not the object you are using it on, that takes SD.

A great example is BEST’s estimation using sea ice as land or as oceans. The difference due to the choice is 0.7 C +/-0.09 C which isn’t going to be reduced very much by more measurements, it is a real world limit. If you were measuring an object you know would never change like a brick by a manufacturer from the same mold, the SEM would provide more information on that brick while SD would provide information on the quality of the measurements. However, if there is a mixture of types of bricks, you cannot tell if SD is related to the mixture of bricks or quality of measurements, all you know is there is some uncertainty.

Comment on The Climate of XMAS by rhhardin

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In the late 70s AEP ran out of coal in Ohio after a freezing rain left the piles as impenetrable rocks.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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A good station can become a bad station and vice versa several times in a single year by simply failing to cut back vegetation. Class 1 requires vegetation less than 4 inches and Class 2 less than 10 inches. As well the type and condition of the vegetation will also have an effect – lush green or dead brown.

I don’t think vegetation length is a major issue. We didn’t notice much discrepancy when it was measurable. A bit of shade, a bit of heat sink, but nothing like a nice wide paved driveway.
And we couldn’t measure it under most (current) circumstances, anyway.

Yes, ground color will affect things, too.

Worth further study, but it’d be difficult.

And I think this is chipping around the edges, not a fundamental, systematic disqualifier. If it were, our results would be off the beam from the sats, and they are well within it.

Snow cover or not will also have an effect.,/i>

Especially in area where snow can bury the sensor, as in arctic regions.

You didn’t mention shade, but that issue is conflated: usually what causes the shade is the heat sink itself.

It’s really a hopeless task to get ground station consistency with the needed precision and accuracy for this task. I will never trust anything except satellites measuring temperature of a column in the troposphere isolated from ground level effects by altitude.

It’s not as easy. But, look at he bottom line. And remember, we has a top satellite guy on the team.

According to Klotzbach, et al, and to Christy, during an overall warm trend, surface trend should exceed satellite trend by ~10% to 40%, depending on latitude.

Our class 1\2 unperturbed set clocks in at Tmean ~10% under RSS2 and UAH6. The sum checks.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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Can you describe the heat sink(s) in question

Certainly. Paved surfaces, structures, and bodies of water. Active parking lots (whether paved or not).

and how they work to change a long term trend?

When the temperature is lower, they create a smaller offset. By the end of the series, when the temperature is higher, and shows a higher trend, the offset is larger. The difference between the two creates the effect on the trend.

For a crude, analog example, see:

http://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/watts-et-al-temperature-station-siting-matters/#comment-753903

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by evanmjones

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<i>You’re very shallow.</i> I make up for it in width.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.3

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RichardLH, “Why do that step? We do not KNOW the other values. We can estimate them only.”

Because that is the problem he is working on. He feels that a “global” mean temperature is meaningful. What is meaningful for thermodynamics is the change in energy in the system and changes in energy flows inside the system. If you have a longer melt period in a region that is meaningful thermodynalically. Having some indication that the temperature at some altitude changed from -79C to -75C is pretty much meaningless, except for His problem. He has to know for whatever reason he thinks he has to know it.

There are also people that feel compelled to polish ostrich turds. Kind of neat when they are done, but not my cup of tea.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by Mark Silbert

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Capt.,

I’ll be calling you. We need to fish together for a couple of days.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by Mike Flynn

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evanmjones,

There doesn’t seem to be any point to any of this, with respect.

Measuring the supposed temperature of an ever moving air mass, at a more or less fixed location achieves what, precisely? As others have already pointed out, you are probably measuring the temperature of the enclosure. As Tyndall wrote, measuring the temperature of the atmosphere is not easy. Just surrounding a thermometer with air does not necessarily give you a good indication of the air temperature, however you choose to define it.

As a simple example, should the temperature of the enclosure drop, due to cloud or similar, the thermometer may well record a drop in temperature, even though the air flowing through the louvres has not changed its temperature. Conversely, an enclosure heated by the reemergence of the Sun may show an increase in temperature, as the thermometer will respond to the increase in radiation which it absorbs from the enclosure walls.

Although it seemed like a good idea at the time, plonking a heap of thermometers here there and everywhere, in a variety of locations at varying heights above ground, with scant regard to things like katabatic or anabatic effects, let alone environmental radiative influences ranging from the Sun, to the effects of Man and his works, would seem to provide little, if anything, of value.

I believe the aim is to see whether the globe is heating or cooling. There seems to be a naive belief that Nature will somehow ensure that thermometer readings imply something other than the temperature of the thermometer, however derived. If the interior of the Earth is above the surface temperature, then the Earth must cool. No amount of CO2 can prevent this.

After four and a half billion years of sunlight, and an atmosphere containing CO2, the Earth has demonstrably cooled. To claim that the laws of thermodynamics have decided to reverse themselves recently, seems a little far fetched. Thermometers may well be showing higher temperatures, as populations and energy production increase. Warmists seem oblivious to the easily demonstrated fact that light of all frequencies, from the longest radio waves to the highest energy gamma rays and beyond, travels in straight lines from its source.

Whether this be the Sun, a lump of iron, or a diffuse gas makes no difference. Everything above absolute zero emits radiation. Pretending that meteorological instruments magically measure the temperature of the air which surrounds them is just silly. They respond to the totality of the radiation which they absorb.

It really makes no difference. Fiddling with historical temperature records achieves no more than fiddling with historical cloud cover observations, and who would bother? Or adjusting rainfall records. Or visibility, or wind speed and direction. What has any of this to do with non existent magical CO2 warming?

All a bit of a mystery, I fear. But if it’s fun, and – even more fun – if you can get somebody to pay you to do it, why not?

Cheers.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by Steven Mosher

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“So how do you boys (Venema/Mosher) factor this into the equation? Are you measuring temperature trends or wind speed trends? LOL”

Neither. You cant measure trends.

Comment on Watts et al.: Temperature station siting matters by Steven Mosher

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“Why do that step? We do not KNOW the other values. We can estimate them only. The need to preform this step is purely to then be able to do a comparison to other data. Without that simple ‘reference to self’ will suffice to produce anomaly data.”

No. You take the estimates of the sampled data to predict or give estimates for the unsampled data.

The goal is not comparison with “other data”.

The goal is prediction.

We dont work in anomalies so lose that idea as well.

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