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Comment on Pause (?) by Vaughan Pratt

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Could you plot year-on-year temperature change vs. CO2?

No. I use MATLAB/Octave, and Excel/CALC for that, each pairing being proprietary/open-source. MATLAB and Octave are more or less interchangeable, but I think it’s worthwhile avoiding features that work in one but not the other, especially since MATLAB has millions of users.

Excel/CALC are good because MS Office is widely deployed and Open Office is a free download, and almost everyone else has or can easily download MS’s free Excel reader if they just want to look at other people’s work.

MATLAB produces the nicest graphs if you use embedded postscript, but Excel reaches the largest audience when distributing stuff for examination (terrific for transparency, the whole world can see all the formulas and values creating the graphs, unlike GCM’s where the math is totally opaque, an intrinsic problem with GCM’s).

I would say the question of how to “do it right” with such software is open. My presentation at the AGU meeting in SF on Dec. 8 gives a couple of ways of going about it, along with how the choice of way can influence the answers to questions like “How hot will it get by 2100?”, “Between years Y and Y’, how much of the temperature variation was our fault?”, “How should climate sensitivity be defined and what is its value with each definition?”, “How important is it to separate the various natural contributors to climate change?” (what difference does it make if they’re all lumped together) and so on.

The answers depend on the method, suggesting that the questions can’t be answered precisely without a reason for preferring one method over another, which can quickly lead to arguments as we see here all the time.

But the extent to which they depend is of interest, because questions for which the extent is small have more precise answers than those whose answers depend very heavily on the method.


Comment on The wrong(?) conversation by Baa Humbug

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De Ja Vu or Groundhog Day, call it what you will but all this has been done before. In fact 16 years ago and I alerted Judith to it about 12 months ago. (in fact I emailed Judith on Xmas day last year about it)

I came across this whilst taking part in Donna Laframboises Citizens Audit where I found numerous IPCC AR4 references to a CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability). This is what it’s handbook states…

CLIVAR is a component of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), which was established by WMO and ICSU, and is carried out in association with IOC and SCOR. The scientific planning and development of CLIVAR is under the guidance of the JSC Scientific
Steering Group for CLIVAR assisted by the CLIVAR International Project Office. The Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) is the main body of WMO-ICSU-IOC formulating overall WCRP scientific concepts.

There we have the very same groups WCRP WMO ICSU.

What are the objectives of CLIVAR?

CLIVAR is an international research programme investigating climate variability and predictability on time-scales from months to decades and the response of the climate system to anthropogenic
forcing. CLIVAR, as one of the major components of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), started in 1995 has a lifetime of 15 years.
The specific objectives of CLIVAR are:
1. To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate-research and observing
programmes.
2. To extend the record of climate variability over the time-scales of interest through the assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic and instrumental data sets.
3. To extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction through the development of global coupled predictive models.
4. To understand and predict the response of the climate system to increases of radiatively active gases and aerosols and to compare these predictions to the observed climate record in order to detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

The CLIVAR website is…http://www.clivar.org/
It is a vast site that requires many hours of reading. I had done much of it before a change in personal circumstance caused me to abandon it.

CLIVAR was armed with a large team, many of whom are familiar names to us, and large resources such as fully equipped ships and planes.
The team was split into groups who studied various regions and various climate phenomena.
i.e. Atlantic Panel, Pacific Panel, Indian Panel, Southern Panel, American Monsoon, African Panel etc.

It had a lifetime of 15 years ending in 2010. What did they achieve? Are they able to predict any regional climate phenomena? The answers were no last year and I haven’t had time to go through the web site again, but judging by the fact that they have an overlapping 10 year strategy (2005-2015) I’d say their objectives haven’t been met as yet.

My feeling at the time was that the IPCC reports couldn’t just keep being republished as is without going stale and that something had to be changed. That something is prediction as opposed to projection. My immediate thought at the time was “OMG what if they even fluked a prediction of an EL NINO or a typhoon in Asia? Too traumatising to contemplate.”

Comment on The wrong(?) conversation by Willis Eschenbach

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Those good folks over at NOAA are really desperate on this “Climate Services” nonsense. They have wasted taxpayer dollars to collect a bunch of quotes from various yes-men and non-entitites about how great the “Climate Services” change is.

My favorite, though, is from Jane:

“Working closely with federal, regional, academic and other state and local government and private sector partners, the new NOAA Climate Service will build on our success transforming science into useable climate services. NOAA is committed to scientific integrity and transparency; we seek to advance science and strengthen product development and delivery through user engagement.”

Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D.
Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator

I mean, when you feel like you have to put in a testimonial for a program that comes from the administrator responsible from the program, you’ve failed the laugh test, the smell test, the IQ test, and the spin cycle all at once.

“Climate services”?

Riiiiiiiiight …

w.

Comment on Harmony of the climate: isolating the oscillations in many climate data sets by Don Monfort

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It’s bassless. Call Bootsy Collins. He will lead them. We need the funk.

Comment on Pause (?) by steven mosher

Comment on Disinformation and pseudo critical thinking by hunter

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Robert,
You are notable only for your unoriginal, reactionary and incorrect interpretation of nearly everything you can possibly find to screw up.

Comment on Best of the BEST critiques by Bartemis

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<i>"I doubt you will look at it because you do not appear to be that intellectually curious."</i> More diddling of you ego. This kind of thing really is unseemly in public. Not to mention tiresome. I was propagating probability distributions using the F-P equation for complex, time varying systems, for the purpose of formulating robust nonlinear estimation filters, while you were still in grade school. You have <i>a</i> solution to a restricted, stationary time model using ad hoc assumptions which appear to work at limited scales in specific circumstances, and you think I should accept your extrapolation to the whole of the Earth because, well, because you think the math is kinda' cool. Sorry, Junior. You've got a lot more work to do.

Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by MattStat

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I haven’t seen any graphs inconsistent with a 50+ year progressive increase in ocean heat content, associated with the warming of about 0.6 C after 1950.

Is that different from the 50 years that went before.

the First Law tells us it can’t be due to an internal fluctuation..

Unless there is a natural cycle in cloud cover reflecting/admitting light, or some other mechanism not yet well studied.

You haven’t really discussed how the Hurst exponent could be used in the manner of Ludecke et al to distinguish between forced trends and internal fluctuations while remaining consistent with the principles of thermodynamics.

My discussion was simple: it does not provide any information relevant to the distinction that you want.

I believe that your basic frustration stems from your unwillingness to accept that there might be important mechanisms (cloud cover, hydrolic cycle) that are not well enough known to justify precise mathematical/physical claims. Let me repeat something that Doc Martyn wrote above: If you are within 10% of reality, you have done very well indeed. The idea that one could estimate an increase of 4 w/m2 from a background of 240 w/m2 is patent nonsense.

For whatever reason, you have decided everything unknown is too tiny to matter.

Hence my earlier dialogue:

Fred: mercury expands as it warms.

Matt: that thermometer is not accurate enough for clinical use.

Matt, you frustrate me. Why can’t understand that mercury expands when it warms. To do otherwise would be to violate the laws of thermodynamics. It’s pure physics. You shouldn’t criticize physics when you know so little of it. And on and on.

Well, what can I say? The thermometer is still not accurate enough for clinical use. It is, in fact, so inaccurate that you can not even tell by using it whether the fever is increasing or decreasing.

I have had these discussions before;

Biologist: here is how the drug works, etc, much detail.

Matt: the control group and the active treatment group are nearly the same.

Biologist: you don’t understand because you don’t know how the drug works, how it is absorbed and metabolized, how it stimulates the production of xyz-esteratse, and down-regulates the uvw-binding site.

Matt: what can I tell you? The symptoms are the same in both groups. There is no evidence that the drug works in the target population. No evidence at all, just random variation in the symptoms in the two groups. We can’t sell it because it doesn’t work.


Comment on Disinformation and pseudo critical thinking by hunter

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And of course, Joshua, you and the AGW believers, being enlightened and all, are above any sort of error in this regard or any other for that matter.

Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by MattStat

Comment on Disinformation and pseudo critical thinking by Theo Goodwin

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Brilliant essay! Enjoyed it immensely. I cannot disagree with a word you said. If we lived near one another I would greatly enjoy discussing these matters with you.

If you want the classic (and all time best) account of these matters, read David Hume’s “An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding.”(18th century) For the postmodern perversion of them read William James’ address “The Will to Believe.”(1896)

Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by kim

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I volunteer for the voyage of discovery, monkeys or bottles, I gotta know.
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Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by dallas

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I don’t disagree Doc, it is a very interesting puzzle. Just thinking of the scales involved is amazing. Before the solar UV surprise, solar TSI change might cause 0.1 degree change. With expect 4.5 degrees fo warming, that would be insignificant. Now with 0.8 to 1.2 change due to CO2 doubling, 0.1 is pretty significant. The models estimate something like 10% changes due to natural internal variability. Of 4.5 that would be small, 0.45 degrees that would average out. Now, with potential much great solar impact, that is not something to be over looked.

So nailing a number with any model is unlikely. But, the temperature data is pretty good except for the poles. Physics is still physics. Just kick in a little more intense thermo and fluid dynamics and and we get closer. That is until something changes. That is the nature of a chaotic system, every new start can produce a different result.

So while not perfect, those simple boxes can go through a lot more new starts than a complex model that takes months to run. Simple is better when you need fast results. Right now, exciting stuff seems to be happening, so I want fast.

Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by hunter

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I think the more important question is not if the world has warmed but if it has warmed in a way that poses any more of a significant challenge than the climate of the past ~1000 years.

Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by steven

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Energy transport changes the weather. Changing the weather changes the albedo. You can have exactly the same forcing and have entirely different results should the transport of energy change. If a change in the transport of energy creates weather patterns with consistantly less albedo you can have surface and ocean warming without a change of forcing.


Comment on Mail on BEST by Anteros

Comment on Tol’s critique of the Ludecke et al. papers by Bruce

Comment on Disinformation and pseudo critical thinking by David Young

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This is interesting. I think Bertrand Russell’s History of Western Philosophy is excellent on this and traces the eclipse of reason by “feeling” to Rousseau and his latter day descendents. Anyway, the chapter on romanticism is Russell at his best. Russell was born into an era where scientific and material progress was taken for granted and the idea that man was “despoiling the planet” was totally foreign. We need a return to this hard headed rationalism.

Comment on Disinformation and pseudo critical thinking by David Young

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Theo, Russell has a great debunking of James that you would find humorous if it weren’t so serious.

Comment on Disinformation and pseudo critical thinking by tempterrain

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Michael Larkin,

“I don’t know how old Neven is, but I’m over sixty, and whilst I don’t think of myself as wise, I do think I’m wiser than I was twenty or thirty years ago.”

Yes its odd how most climate science rejectionists are retirees, or close to that age. I guess you think the Earth will be OK for the next 20 or 30 years so AGW will be someone else’s problem after that.

Most scientists and mathematicians do their best work in their 20′s and 30′s. Its all downhill from then on. It must be they lose too many brain cells after that.

Of course, it’s quite possible that you only think you know better than you did. Would it even be possible to think you knew better then than you do now? But you might want to consider the possibility, that if you still had your full compliment of cells, you’d be on our side!

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