Latimer Alder
See <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014007/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014007.pdf" rel="nofollow">Cohen et al. (2012)</a> <b>Artcic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling.</b>
<blockquote>Abstract
The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone. Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.</blockquote>
Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by BBD
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part I by Herman Alexander Pope
If you curve fit the past ten thousand years you will have something valid. If you curve fit 1979 to the present, you will get something that will extrapolate outside of realistic bounds.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Mark B (number 2)
How convenient that the British Isles and Europe, where we have the best kept thermometer record stretching back 2 centuries, is going to be immune from global warming.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Phil Hays
“Would melting sea ice trigger some sort of clathrate methane release into the atmosphere? Well in terms of thawing permafrost, it seems like more snow fall on the continents would inhibit permafrost thawing.”
I mostly agree with your conclusion, but suspect that your argument is flawed. Fall and winter snow keeps the ground from losing heat during winter. An increase in fall and winter snowfall would increase the melting of permafrost, not decrease it, if all else stayed the same. As the snow cover in spring and summer seems to be decreasing as well, it seems likely that permafrost melting will increase, not stay the same or decrease.
There are several papers discussing the potential rate of release, perhaps referencing these might make for a better discussion.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by lurker, passing through laughing
Joshua is a dependable jester for the extremists.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Herman Alexander Pope
warmer Arctic means more snow and colder in much of the northern hemisphere. Pay close attention to the cold period of 2012-1013.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by BBD
David Springer
There was no <i>global, synchronous</i> MWP. Various regional warming *and cooling* events occurred over the span of about four centuries. The problem arising here is one of 'sceptics' <i>misrepresenting</i> the true nature of the regional Medieval Warm Period<b>s</b> and then claiming that a conspiracy of commie climate scientists is trying to 'get rid of the MWP'. In the sense 'sceptics' use the term, it never existed in the first place.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Alastair McDonald
The cause of the Younger Dyas is not known. It was thought that fresh water from a pro-glacial lake spread across the North Atlantic and stopped the global ocean currents. It is now known that did not happen. The only fresh water to enter the Arctic flowed down the MacKenzie River.
With your scenario the YD started abruptly because the lake burst its banks, but it does not explain why the YD ended abruptly. Did a proglacial lake suddenly suck the fresh water out of the Atlantic?
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by BBD
See also the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event" rel="nofollow">8.2ka Event.</a> The same thing as Younger Dryas - a massive injection of fresh water turned off the NH THC, halting ocean heat transport northwards from the equator. As with YD the source was the huge meltwater reservoir Lake Agassiz.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Warm
“warmer Arctic means more snow and colder in much of the northern hemisphere. Pay close attention to the cold period of 2012-1013.”
Effectively, but the snow cover during the high insolation months (May-June-July) is decreasing: a clear positive albedo feeback.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=5
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=7
Winter snow cover has low impact on albedo, because low insolation during winter months. Moreover, it seems that a large potential of snow melting existed in the recent years, with record low area in may-june despite large snow cover in winter..
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by BillC
der, read CG correspondence from dendros.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Latimer Alder
@BBD
Thanks. I looked at the paper.
A better abstract is ‘the climate is not behaving the way the models tell us. Northern Hemisphere winters aren’t getting warmer and the pesky public have noticed…it is making them sceptical of the whole AGW thing. Here’s a desperate attempt to shore up the theory with some waffly hand-waving about snow in Siberia’
I’ll also note that the best they can do in terms of evidence is ‘concurrent with’. Which is even less strong than the meaningless but ubiquitous ‘not inconsistent with’.
So, thanks for the link, but I am none the wiser.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Bart R
You really need to look up the definition of “news”.
Are we seeing a greening of the Sahara? news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara.html (actual news) reports this is undisputably so, except where it’s uncertain. Extent of desert is expanding in some places, extent of greening and species migration toward greener spots is also seen, too. If the Sahara ever did green as a result of AGW on the scale of the Arctic response (over longer than a couple of decades), then we’d see impacts unlike anything else on the world Economy since the dawn of Industrialization. An explosion of agriculture and population in Africa that followed the Arctic Sea Ice extent rate would be staggering. At the same time we’d likely see effects as well on transmission of disease as new vectors teleconnect currently isolated regions.
The odds remain low that this is the case. Likelier, green transients will collapse or continue to shift and drift without much permanent impact. It’s why desert nomads have been nomadic.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Latimer Alder
Nah. Jesters are supposed to be amusing. Joshua fails that test.
I’d substitute another noun for him ending in ‘er’ but with a ‘k’ and an ‘n’ inolved. And a George 2.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Latimer Alder
@tempterrain
OK
I think the answer is that nobody has a f…g clue about the effect of lower Arctic sea ice on UK weather – if any at all. Some say it’ll be colder, others say it’ll be opposite. And the Met Office say we had a mild winter last time, which will come as news to many of us who work outside and remember the very cold weather. Seems pretty typical of climatology.
I think I’ll just stick to Latimer’s trusty weather predictions
It’ll be cold when there isn’t a warm spell and dry when it isn’t raining or snowing.
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Comment on A modest proposal for sequestration of CO2 in the Antarctic by David Springer
Compare to 60 years of unrealized pie-in-the-sky for nuclear energy. It was supposed to be “too cheap to meter”. Guess what, dopey, it’s still being metered and it ain’t too cheap. It ain’t due to regulatory burdens either, nitwit. Russia and China don’t have excessive regulatory burdens and they also don’t have any more nuclear power generation than anywhere else. Nuclear energy is no panacea. It isn’t price competitive at this point in time with NG, coal, hydro, or even wood-burning furnaces and there is nothing in the pipeline that promises to make it competitive.
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Comment on A modest proposal for sequestration of CO2 in the Antarctic by Tom
Please replace ‘modest’ with the word ludicrous, just for the sake of accuracy regarding this posting.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by Bart R
Wayne2 | September 17, 2012 at 12:38 pm |
Short term albedo shifts from a 5′ snowfall that disappears two days after wreaking havoc on the city?
I’d say it balances with the rounding error of considering as Dr. Curry does the albedo effects diminished because of the low angle of the Arctic sun in the months the arctic sea ice is diminished. That’s a pretty silly claim on Dr. Curry’s part if you consider that in the months the arctic sea ice isn’t diminished, there’s never really so much sunlight as you’d count it against the average, so whatever albedo changes there are during the half of the year that matters, they’re when the sun is at its highest angle.
Also, more snow in some places may mean less snow in others, and could mean less cloud cover, we just don’t know from the evidence presented. From the evidence not presented — and why wasn’t it? — we have cause to expect greater extremes both directions.
jimmy | September 17, 2012 at 5:56 pm |
You’re mistaking averages for uniform distributions.
More snow in some regions in some years, less snow in other regions, on top of the other extreme events and shifting attractors of AGW, not uniformly more reliable water supply. Only a pronoiac looks for the silver lining in everything while skeptical of the harms; only a tyrant is willing to make those decisions for others without their consent to give up their rights to say for themselves what risk they’re willing to accept.
Peter Lang | September 18, 2012 at 5:05 am |
Yeah, I’ve read Nordhaus; whom it appears you understand poorly.
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/1aMultAddLatest.pdf may help.
I also — though it’s been demonstrated I have low irony perception — know what a play on words is. Shame you don’t.
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by manacker
tempterrain
IPCC in no way understated the shrinking rate of Arctic sea ice, TT.
Here’s what IPCC (AR4 WG1 SPM, p.15) has to say about Arctic and Antarctic sea ice:
“Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and the Antarctic under all SRES scenarios. In some projections, arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century.”
So far, the Antarctic is not following the IPCC prediction (or projection), but the late-summer Arctic sea ice seems headed for disappearing by the latter part of the 21st century, as you and I have both extrapolated, using the most recent data.
But, as Yogi Berra said, “Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.”
[Let's let our grandchildren tune back in around 2060 to 2090. In the meantime, let's leave it to the Inuits and polar bears.]
Max
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Comment on Reflections on the Arctic sea ice minimum: Part II by David Springer
tempterrain | September 17, 2012 at 11:12 pm | Reply
“The point is that its all disappearing fast and will continue to do so unless humanity starts to bring CO2 emissions under control.”
Given that the planet as a whole is cooling as Arctic sea ice is melting that is indeed alarming.
Humanity isn’t going to bring CO2 “under control” anytime soon unless you figure out a way to make billions of people in India and China stop wanting the higher living standards that only increased energy consumption can bring to them. You’re preaching to the wrong people. Suggest you learn Hindi and Mandarin and preach to those people instead.
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