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Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by gbaikie

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“The basic tenets for AGW are sound, and even most skeptics do not disagree with them. It turns out as we all now know that reality is different, and the initial concern misplaced, but it was never entirely unjustified. Humans have never been greater number of have a greater impact on the world they live in and it’s part of the growing pains of a modern society that we recognise that what we do could potentially be harmful.”
It is possible we more than “mostly harmless”.
But we could also potentially be of much benefit.
And be under populated.

“By framing the debate as a childish “liberals are trying to take over the world” you do much to entrench the tribalism that is the cause of so much stupidity, and it undermines the credibility of rational objections to the science and policy surrounding AGW. ”
Liberal may not interested in taking over the world, but totalitarians by their nature are trying to take over the world. And some liberals are totalitarians.
But rather than liberal a better term for large percent of totalitarians are Lefties.All modern totalitarians are lefties [or claiming to be lefties]. Modern starting with the French. Though the Japanese weren’t lefties, but they were allies of Germany which was intending to conquer the world with Japanese having a place as allies with a having their sphere influence. But Japanese as with Italy and the middle eastern countries were probably temporary in the grand scheme of things as was Germany’s very more fleeting truce with Russia.
One can have country which totalitarian with no real capability controlling the world, such as Cuba or N Korean, but they want it.


Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by Latimer Alder

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I can’t comment directly about US politics since they are all a mystery on this side of the pond.

But I do observe that compared with three or four years ago when I first started taking an interest in matters climatical there is a perceptible change in the vim and vigour of the alarmist side. The swagger has gone. Their sense that history was on their side and that their victory was inevitable has drained away. Post Copenhagen, and post Climategate they see nothing but the wreckage of their hopes and dreams.

There has been a relentless series of defeats wherever one looks. Germany – one of the few countries in the world where Green politics has a major electoral following is ditching low carbon nuclear power in favour of high carbon lignite (brown coal). Kyoto is dead – and there is no realistic prospect of the corpse being revived anytime soon. In UK we passed the foolhardy Climate Change Act in 2008, but it is now slowly being swept under the carpet as energy sanity sets in and disastrous subsidies for ‘renewables’ are reduced.

The media – once to be relied upon to put ‘climate change’ stories front and centre of their coverage – have got climate fatigue……they recognise that it is a turnoff topic for readers and viewers. It is no longer trendy and is just falling into decline

And the few remaining alarmists are still fighting only because they know no other way. They have no new ideas, They too can see the tide of worldwide political opinion swinging ever further from their grasp.
There are no bright spots on their horizon. No rallying points to look forward to…no new vigorous leader to give them hope. Pachauri is 72, Hansen 71 and Romm is 52. Mann is younger at 46 but a very divisive figure. And that is it. There’s nobody else to lead them to the Promised Land.

In UK at least one generation has had a complete school education laced with dire warnings of imminent climate-generated apocalypse. But the younger people show no more enthusiasm for ‘climate action’ than the old. There are few, if any, 20 and 30 something climate activists. It is a dying business to be in.

We’ve heard a lot recently about the ‘Arctic Death Spiral’. Which may or may not be occurring as forecast. But watching the alarmist’s slow death spiral…

No action, No people, No hope, No chance!

is even more interesting.

Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by Peter Lang

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I agree with all that. That is what will happen and should happen, IMO.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by BBD

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kim

No answers? Well, what a surprise that is ;-)

I had a little bet with myself last night that you would be unable to answer those four questions and that this morning I would still be looking at this:

1/?
2/?
3/?
4/?

There’s so much more to this than the MWP. You need to think about the big picture. That’s why the four unanswered questions above span climate behaviour from interannual wiggles to the ~100ka deglaciation cycle under orbital forcing.

But you cling, cling, cling to the MWP – and I’ve already explained that whether it was large, medium or small, for *anything* much to happen requires at least a moderately sensitive climate system.

And you speak of cognitive dissonance! Foolish, foolish kim. Where is your sense of irony?

Now, answers please.

Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by gbaikie

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Oh, forgot about Iran- obviously they want to control the world. The communist were part of overthrown, but that small group more or less got wipeout- so it’s theological totalitarian regime. Not conservative in sense of American conservative- but one call them right wingers.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by BBD

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WHT Funnily enough, I pointed our friend steven at <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/" rel="nofollow">this RC article</a> by Kyle Swanson (of Swanson & Tsonis 2009 'climate shift' fame) which is worth quoting here: <blockquote>It first needs to be emphasized that natural variability and radiatively forced warming are not competing in some no-holds barred scientific smack down as explanations for the behavior of the global mean temperature over the past century. Both certainly played a role in the evolution of the temperature trajectory over the 20th century, and significant issues remain to be resolved about their relative importance. However, the salient point, one that is oftentimes not clear in arguments about variability in the climate system, is that all else being equal, climate variability and climate sensitivity are flip sides of the same coin. [...] A climate that is highly sensitive to radiative forcing (i.e., responds very strongly to increasing greenhouse gas forcing) by definition will be unable to quickly dissipate global mean temperature anomalies arising from either purely natural dynamical processes or stochastic radiative forcing, and hence will have significant internal variability. The opposite also holds. It’s painfully easy to paint oneself logically into a corner by arguing that either (i) vigorous natural variability caused 20th century climate change, but the climate is insensitive to radiative forcing by greenhouse gases; or (ii) the climate is very sensitive to greenhouse gases, but we still are able to attribute details of inter-decadal wiggles in the global mean temperature to a specific forcing cause. Of course, both could be wrong if the climate is not behaving as a linear forced (stochastic + GHG) system.</blockquote> Will 'sceptics' understand this? I doubt it.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by Chief Hydrologist

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‘Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an
increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ Swanson and Tsonis 2009 – Has the climate recently shifted.

The one that peer reviewed science keeps telling us about. Damn those sceptics.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by Chief Hydrologist


Comment on Cool first, warm later by Beth Cooper

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We do not know what the next climate shift will be … sound of beating wings … Chief H raises the problem of possible cooling whereby growing crops for a global population becomes an immediate and pressing problem. This is where our focus should be, not worrying about a possible two degrees of warming, about the difference in Australian average temperature between Mellbourne and Townsville.

Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by Peter Lang

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Latimer Alder,

You put it so clearly.

Excellent explanation of the situation.

Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by David Wojick

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His waffling may be a sign of the shift. Ambiguity is the point of the debate. The climate war has not fizzled, rather it has surfaced.

Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by Latimer Alder

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Another observation

In US it is suggested that the ‘climate issue’ is failing because

‘because huge amounts of money were spent to purposely discredit the facts. Some of the coal industry, some of your old power-plant owners, put money into branding cap-and-trade as cap-and-tax.’

Maybe so, maybe not so. I’m not in the US so can’t comment.

But – even if true – such an argument doesn’t work for the UK. When we still had a substantial coal industry it had been in public ownership since 1948. And it nearly all closed down in the mid-1980s. There are a very few privately owned mines left, but they are insubstantial contributors to our power generation.

And yet, ‘climate change’ has fallen way off people’s radar in UK. The Prime Minister, despite being elected on a promise of ‘the greenest government ever’ has been completely silent on the issue. Politicians run away from it like scared cats. And the ministerial responsibility is parked with a junior minister from the junior coalition partner.

This effect cannot be blamed on coal or oil or tobacco industry lobbying since we do not – to any great extent – have any of them.

There needs to be a better explanation. My best guess is that the mass of people listened seriously to the story when it first came out twenty-odd years ago, And since it was told by apparently reputable sciency types, they were happy to go along with some of the actions proposed.

But when it actually became apparent that none of the shroudwaving predictions were coming true, and that not all the sciency types were of pristine moral character and entirely objective motivations, they began to question just how true the CAGW narrative actually was.

And they quickly concluded that there was an awful lot of special pleading by those who made their careers from exploiting the climate change scare. And at that point the individual members of Joe Public powerless to do anything individually just stopped listening. And they have stayed that way. The quickest way to turn people off a discussion is to try to talk about ‘climate change’. It is yesterday’s ’cause du jour’, and about as interesting as last week’s newspaper.

Comment on Skeptics: make your best case. Part II by manacker

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Girma

Thanks for posting interesting Patzert (NASA Pasadena Labs) study on “new climatic regime” bringing more La Niñas and fewer El Niños than we had in the 1980s and 1990s. (Earlier Patzert had referred to “La Nada” for this year.)

One can roughly calculate from the NASA NOAA data on late 20th century El Niño events and their temperature impacts on the SST, how much of the global warming was directly attributable to these El Niño events.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/1998/enso/10elnino.html

It turns out that one can attribute somewhere between 30 and 40% of all the observed 1976-2000 warming to ENSO (including, of course, the warmest year on record – 1998).
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3080/3120559552_7d038c13f5_b.jpg

Your study ends with the obligatory sales pitch for AGW, but I see that this has been watered down considerably from the IPCC version.

The dominant view among experts is that emissions of heat-trapping industrial waste gases like carbon dioxide are responsible for at least part of the last century’s global warming of about one degree.

“dominant view among experts”
and
“at least part of last century’s global warming”

instead of

“greater than 90% likelihood”
and
”most of warming over last 50 years”

These subtle changes in wording tell us a lot about how the wind is blowing with regard to “uncertainty” of IPCC CAGW claims as evidence of greater impact of natural forcing (or variability) becomes evident.

(Maybe our hostess’ message is beginning to sink in.)

Max

Comment on Skeptics: make your best case. Part II by docrichard

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er. 1,124 responses to this thread. Call me idle, but I’m not trawling through them all to discover the best case. So I will set up a framework:
1) the case is that there is no greenhouse effect, or that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, or that CO2 has not increased since industrialisation.
2) It is accepted that doubling CO2 will produce warming of ~1.2*C, but that climate sensitivity is very very low.

Perhaps it might be helpful if posters could indicate whether they are propounding option 1 or option 2.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by David Springer

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manacker | September 25, 2012 at 7:51 am | Reply

WHT

Your claims (right or not) would look much more convincing if you left off the “ad homs”, dumbass.

Max

No, his opinions would still lack substance. They’d lack color too if he wasn’t an anonymous mud-slinging coward.


Comment on Cool first, warm later by David Springer

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Edim | September 25, 2012 at 11:07 am | Reply

“No, it’s you [webhubtelescope] who is dishonest and trying to sabotage the discussion. Everybody can see that. Or you’re not very smart.”

Stupid and dishonest are not mutually exclusive. The former tends to limit the success of the latter which handily explains why Web’s lies are not very convincing.

Comment on U.S. climate change policy news by SamNC

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Its hard because you need heat to vaporise liquid propane. North American and European cars in water will need a large heat exchanger to be installed on the cars.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by Chief Hydrologist

Comment on Cool first, warm later by David Springer

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Chief Hydrologist | September 25, 2012 at 11:18 pm | Reply

“‘That was meant to have a question mark – evaporation and condensation is an energy conserving system? Energy is always conserved – what matters is the production of entropy – which is not simple in a non-equilibrium system.’ At least have the honesty to quote the correction. ”

What matters is that evaporation, CONVECTION, and condensation insensibly transports buku energy from the surface to the cloud deck. What matters is that this mode of energy transport is unaffected by greenhouse gases restricting the radiative pathway between ground and cloud because greenhouse gases don’t absorb and re-radiate latent heat. What matters is that we live and breath and grow crops on the surface not in the cloud layer. What matters is that restricting the radiative surface cooling path does not increase surface temperature when the latent pathway is free to take up the slack. What matters is that non-condensing greenhouse gases only have the maximal effect raising surface temperature over dry and/or frozen land. What doesn’t matter is that the lapse rate between ground and cloud is reduced and clouds form 100 meters higher as a result of a CO2 doubling over water and constantly wetted land.

Comment on Cool first, warm later by David Springer

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BBD | September 26, 2012 at 5:47 am |

“No, no, Girma. I’m merely a humble observer pointing to the scientific consensus view of what the data indicate.”

Yes, yes, BigButtDonk. Ad populum fallacy. We know.

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