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Comment on Berkeley Earth Update by David Springer

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captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2 | January 28, 2013 at 9:01 am |

“The ~5 year delay in surface temperatures versus solar is just an indication of the RMS value of the charger and the charge capacity of the battery.”

The delay is nowhere near a constant and differs drastically land vs. ocean. Daily maximum solar power is high noon while, over land, temperature climbs another 90 minutes or so while over the ocean there’s essentially no diurnal variation at all. Summer solstice is peak annual insolation. Temperature peaks weeks later over land and many weeks later over ocean. I’m not sure about delays of years. I don’t think anyone can speak to that except in theory and they say theories are like @ssholes everyone’s got one and they all stink.


Comment on Berkeley Earth Update by David Springer

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As an interesting exercise in heat budgets figure out the energy anomally in the Pacific for the 1998 El Nino, transit time on the Pacific conveyor belt to the Arctic ocean. Then estimate the mass and latent heat of fusion in Arctic sea ice and subtract that energy delivered by the El Nino. I came up with about 10% and sure enough, about 18 months later Arctic summer sea ice extent stairsteps down by 10% over the course of a few years. The indicated transit time (speed of Pacific conveyor) is about 18 months from El Nino to beginning melt. That’s an approximate match for the surface conveyor belt speed. Not enough appreciate the magnitude of the 1998 El Nino. It was the most severe in at least a century. The last one like that was probably what let Amundsen make the NW Passage.

Comment on Open thread weekend by climatereason

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Rob

You say you are sceptical that Britain was connnected to the mainland only 8000 years ago. There is masses of evidence to support this which I cited in my link above. Go to the ‘longer document’ mentioned in the first paragraph. We have tools, stones and all sorts of artefacts.

Here is more information with a good map

http://theheritagetrust.wordpress.com/2012/07/05/doggerland-and-drowned-landscapes/

As for your question, the best article on the subject are ‘historic variations in sea levels Part1, 2 and 3!! Unfortunately only Part 1 is written although the data has been collected for the remaining parts. :)

As for ‘worldwide’ that presents problems as averaging something that is so hugely variable tends to be meaningless.
tonyb

Comment on Open thread weekend by andrew adams

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Rob,

Your links all seem to point to studies of sea levels over many thousands, or even millions, of years. And yes, if you look back that far you will sea level rise far more drastic than we are seeing now. But your links also support Fan’s argument that sea levels have been pretty stable for the last few thousand years or so but we are now seeing an increase in the rate of SLR – you just can’t see the current trend in the charts in your links because of the timescales involved. However, Bart Verheggen plotted the current trend on top of the long term record here

http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/past-current-future-sea-level-rise-graphs/

What’s more your first link specifically states in the conclusions

Today the rate of sea-level rise is increasing due to climate change

Comment on Berkeley Earth Update by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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BBD, I already gave that to you. You just need to let it sink in, literally.

Vaughan found a SAW tooth in his model and is looking for a cause.

Since the Earth is a fairly complex battery, you have to considered the charger and loads separately. See, the cells are different sizes and there is always one that is slower to charge.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-JheQdkSRylw/UQaftjam4fI/AAAAAAAAG64/otM4U3suJCo/s912/tropical%2520battery.png

If the tropics are the charger, the mid-latitudes would charge fairly quickly and fairly uniformly. The lower part of the high latitudes would take longer and may not charge at the same rate. By subtracting the loads from the tropical charger you can see Vaughan’s SAWtooth. The AMO is fine for weather, but climate would require a more “global” index, like the hemispheric imbalance. All that internal “Wall” energy transfer that someone forgot to take seriously.

I am not going to mention any names, but the Faint Young Sun paradox is horse hockey. You need to consider the Peak and RMS values when charging a battery, but then most dope smoking telescope jockeys have never actually worked in the real world. Not that I have anything against dope smoking or telescopes, but there is a time and place for everything.

Oh, that upturn in the blue curve is your CO2 amplified by land use, snow field reduction and land mass. You can estimate CO2 only by subtracting the Blue from the Orange, or you can go to the actual “average” charge on the battery, 334 Wm-2 that just happens to be limited by the 334 Joules per gram latent heat of fusion of the electrolyte.

Until you come to grips with the reality that there is not A climate sensitivity, stick to wine and whining.

Comment on Feedback in climate by Cornfused

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I have a question – done a ‘search’ of this site, and don’t see where it’s been addressed. If this is ‘old hat’, please excuse me.

My question is – Is there a reference in the scientific literature to the existence of ‘tipping points’ in climate change?? In my ignorance, this seems to be a ‘moving target’ where Hansen or whoever sticks in a number that they like and then go with it, riding around yelling “The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!”. Please specify the reference(s). I’m writing up a little something for the popular literature and if tipping points are solid science, I want to mention it (and if not science, proclaim this!).

Comment on Open thread weekend by Dagfinn

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Well, I think that’s an alarmist spin on the IPCC results. But I will admit that the IPCC itself is partly responsible since the SPM focuses one-sidedly on negative impacts, neglecting to mention some of the positive ones from the full report.

My version is more like this:

Water access: net gain from AGW.
Direct effect of heat on humans: net gain from AGW.
Effect of heat on crops: I don’t think this is a major issue if farmers are smart enough to grow different crops when the climate changes.
Sea-level rise: expensive adaptation but manageable.
Hurricanes: projected changes are not that great and adaptation is possible.
Diseases: I’m not sure how scary this looks if we take the IPCC projections at face value. So this might be somewhat debatable.

Comment on Hansen on the ‘standstill’ by oneuniverse

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Do you have any technical objections to the corrections?


Comment on Open thread weekend by Rob Starkey

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Tony

Skeptical does not mean that I believe you are wrong, it just means that I am ignorant on the local landscape. As you obviously know, local sea level is much more heavily impacted by changes in land height than changes in actual sea level. I am not sure how a discussion of the sea level in a specific location has much relevance on the topic of climate change globally.
When looking at global sea level I thought a highly accepted long term record was summarized in the Exxon/Hallam studies. The two are in agreement and would seem to indicate that there have been vast changes in sea level and that we are currently fairly near historic low levels. The nearer term records show that there seems to have been a rising of the seas over the last several thousand years at very near to the current rate. The current rate is not alarming, but if it were to actually triple than it would be a concern. There is no reliable evidence of it tripling however.
My original point was that it does seem to have established a short term near doubling but that is not yet a meaningful trend. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of years to see if the short term trend continues. Do you not have a long term record that you believe is best described as reliable for long term sea level?

Comment on Berkeley Earth Update by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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David, that is why there is the squiggly ~ thingy. The ENSO cycle would give you a better “average” lag, but the charging decay curve would change.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Rob Starkey

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Andrew

I have read several of the studies on sea level rise over the last several thousand years and the margin of error for the estimates used seem to indicate that we can’t say with any confidence that the current rate of rise is inconsistent with what occurred over that period. The current rate of rise may be slightly higher than it was during some parts of the last several thousand years and lower than at other times during this period, but it isn’t dramatically different.

Can anyone argue that sea level is currently on a path to rise by 1 meter between 2000 and 2100? I appreciate the exchange.

Comment on Open thread weekend by Wagathon

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In Der Spiegel Dr. Hans von Storch labeled the UN-IPCC’s ‘hockey stick’ [i.e., the graphs of the hysterical Michael Mann and his merry band of histrionic sychopants] as ‘quatsch.’ Quatsch is German for BS, farcical, nonsensical, daft, craziness, bull, bilge, bunk, wack, balderdash, baloney, hooey, loony, nutty, malarkey, rubbish, hogwash, trivial nonsense, hot air, folly, a load of…

Comment on Open thread weekend by pokerguy

Comment on Open thread weekend by gbaikie

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“My version is more like this:

Water access: net gain from AGW.
Direct effect of heat on humans: net gain from AGW.
Effect of heat on crops: I don’t think this is a major issue if farmers are smart enough to grow different crops when the climate changes.
Sea-level rise: expensive adaptation but manageable.
Hurricanes: projected changes are not that great and adaptation is possible.
Diseases: I’m not sure how scary this looks if we take the IPCC projections at face value. So this might be somewhat debatable.”

In the above I would replace AGW with Global warming [as in being in a warmer period rather than being in a colder period].
So water access: net gain from being in warmer periods.
Though it’s obvious that humans create dams and these are greatest factors in water access. But that goes without saying [it's not vaguely disputable] and is not the issue. Though it relates to this water issue in regard to a loss the storage water due by having glacier recede, in that the area occupied by a glacier can replaced with an area used for dam.

And obviously a dam is a better way to
store water for human use [life in general grow better in water as compared to ice]. Or lake is a generally improvement over the same size chunk of glacial ice.

The single greatest effect which seems mostly related to human activity
is the increase in global CO2 [or one can not argue the human activity has reduced global CO2 levels- and only question is how much increase in CO2 is due to human activity]. And this increase in global CO2 has significantly improve the growth of plants- whether crops or in nature.
This is small reason millions to billions of people have enough food to eat- a larger factor is an improvement in farming technology and market type distribution of food to people who need food.

Comment on Feedback in climate by gbaikie

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There is strong evident that tipping point occur in regard to leaving glacial
periods. Some evidence in regard to entering glacial periods.

It general regarded that as area snow and ice which melt, cause more ice and snow and ice to melt. So it’s seen as a runaway effect.
I think there more to the issue, than is generally assumed. Or I would say in terms of general understanding of matter, there too much focus of temperature, rather than other factors in involved, such as patterns of snowfall and many other factors.
Example:
“The Younger Dryas stadial, also referred to as the Big Freeze, was a geologically brief (1,300 ± 70 years) period of cold climatic conditions and drought which occurred between approximately 12,800 and 11,500 years BP (before present).”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
And just before this period was rapid increase of average temperature
leaving glacial period which you can say Younger_Dryas interrupted and so after the Younger_Dryas, it resumed. So in fair short time [geologically speaking] one has “massive” and fairly rapid increase and decrease and increase of global temperature.


Comment on Open thread weekend by Joshua

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The line is indistinct – but the potential to cross lines into egregious limitations of personal freedoms exists at all times and require vigilance to identify and resist.

[...]

All good comes from human freedom and that is challenged today by the Godless hordes of green neo-socialists barbarians inside the walls of western civilisation…

Ah yes indeed. Thank god that the chief is here, as a brave keyboard warrior, to fight for freedom and to stand strong against the “enemy,” – that come in the form of hordes of greens who breed like rats inside the walls of western civilization, who hold the reins of power as they attempt to crush the good intentions of “skeptics.”

Just imagine where we’d be without brave souls like the Chief, who from behind their keyboards write post after post to turn the tide against the injustice.

I mean sure, all those in western civilization do suffer terribly at the hands of chief’s enemies… but thank god he’s around because it could be so much worse.

Lol! I love these guys.

Comment on Macroweather, not climate, is what you expect by manacker

Comment on Macroweather, not climate, is what you expect by manacker

Comment on Macroweather, not climate, is what you expect by steven

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“So, you need to argue that doubling C02 gives you less watts than 3.7″

An alternative argument would be that it matters if the Watts were LW or SW.

Comment on Macroweather, not climate, is what you expect by Brandon Shollenberger

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Steven Mosher, no I did not “review all inputs used” in the NOAA 20CR.

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