Judith Curry,
I appreciate statement of Roy Spencer.
The Five Big Questions / December 18th, 2018 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. :
”It is no secret that I doubt increasing CO2 in the atmosphere will have enough negative effects on the global environment to warrant the extreme cost to humanity of substantially reducing those effects. Note that this statement has both science and energy policy components. In fact, with “global greening” we should consider the possibility of net positive benefits.
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1) Is warming and associated climate change mostly human-caused?
2) Is the human-caused portion of warming and associated climate change large enough to be damaging?
3) Do the climate models we use for proposed energy policies accurately predict climate change?
4) Would the proposed policy changes substantially reduce climate change and resulting damage?
5) Would the policy changes do more good than harm to humanity?”
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/12/the-five-questions-global-warming-policy-must-answer/
The recent climate warming, believed to be dominateded by human CO2 emissions, without any evidence in reality, can be questioned. The questionable, blind belief of politicians in man-made, threatening climate warming demands an alternative strategy. The sooner even politicians will understand that the better it is.
Judith Curry’s statement ”how much warming is caused by humans is THE key issue of debate” is the most urgent one in order of priority to be solved. But she seems not yet to be ready to show, what the real share of warming is caused by human CO2 emissions. In addition, I have understood, that Judith Curry is gradually taking care of the alternative strategy, too, by taking part in activities to make mankind adapt themselves to natural, extreme weather phenomena.
The climate sensitivity based on results of climate models adopted by IPCC is deeply uncertain and exaggerated, as Judith Curry etc. have stated. As there is no evidence in reality, according to which any human-caused, threatening warming of climate could be possible, my forecast is that she will agree with the scientists who say: ‘climate sensitivity can not be distinguished from zero’ (Cripwell, Wojick, Arrak etc; and even Scafetta and Lindzen have claimed that climate sensitivity is less than 1C or 0.5C).
My experiences by solving of multiscientific, metallurgical problems have teached me to solve even other practical problems that way, what is needed even to solve multiscientific problems of climate changes. At first you have only to understand, which one – or which ones – of potential problems can be regarded as potentially threatening. That is realized only on the bases by getting to know theoretical and/or earlier, practical experiences well enough. Thereafter, by basing on experiences of you own and even others, you can search for potential alternatives to be investigated more exactly. Anyhow, without any evidence, each ones of these potential alternatives are still only hypotheses. Any potentially working solution needs an evidence in reality, which can be solved by any due observation available in reality, at the latest by being put that to experimental or practical tests in order to check a working solution.
As far as I am aware, IPCC, intergovernmental panel of climate change, has been established by UN politicians in order to prove scientifically, that the recent climate warming has been caused by human CO2 emissions. In spite of the continuous attempts during the last 3 decades, any cutting of human CO2 emissions according to the Kyoto protocol and the Paris aggreement has not been able to prove any proper basis for the believed, threatening climate warming. Even any cutting of CO2 emissions according to the latest report of IPCC, will not seem to be any working solution. That is why a new strategy must be adopted, in which the cutting of human CO2 emissions must be given up. One necessary way seems to be to replace the cuttings of CO2 emissions by making mankind adapt themselves to natural climate changes and extreme weather phenomena. Why even the latest report of IPCC does give an unreliable view on the cause of the recent climate warming? My view on that is as follows:
– At first the representatives of IPCC – possibly by circular argumentiton, without any evidence in reality – seem to assume, that the recent increase of CO2 content in atmosphere has been totally caused by human CO2 emissions. Whereas, according to natural laws, the share of human CO2 emissions in the recent, total increase of CO2 content in atmosphere is only about 5 % at the most. We have to understand the fact that the quality of all kind of CO2 emissions to atmosphere are similar. Any content of CO2 in atmosphere is determined according to dynamic balance betwween all CO2 emissions from sources to atmosphere and all CO2 absorptions from atmosphere to sinks. The influence of any CO2 emission on CO2 content in atmosphere depends on its its share of total emissions.
– Secondly even the role of the sun in the climate models adopted by IPCC seems to be based on assumption – may be even on circular argumentation, too – without any evidence in reality, too. The sun is key factor to control climate warming. In addition there are plenty of other factors conrolling changes on climate warming dominated by the sun. From the cretagenous period, since 100 million years, until today activity of sun has little by little been increasing. However, the climate temperature during that time has decreased so much, that nowadays tropical temperature is ahout 2 C-degrees and climate temperature of polar regions 20-40 C-degrees lower than during the 100 million years ago, caused by continent movings, which have changed water streams of oceans so that climate had been getting cool especially upper latitudes. During the latest 800 000 years, being associated with glacials and interglacials, the sun has orbitally controlled changes of climate temperature according to distance of the globe from the sun in the mildly elliptical orbit. During the current interglacial Holocene there can be found, that changes of climate temperature trends can be explained by activity changes of sun, which has especially controlled natural El Niño and La Niña phenomena.
– The third inconsistence, compared to the truth, is, that, according to observations, trends of CO2 content in atmosphere have been always found to follow trends of climate temperature and not vice versa. For instance that can be found by geological and even latest observations during the last 100 million years, during the last 800 000 concerning the glacials and interglacials, and even during the present interglacial Holocene, as the trends of climate temperature has been dominated by El Niño and La Niña phenomena.
– Finally one have to learn to understand the truth, that by using the climate models adopted by IPCC, nobody has managed to forcast or to hindcast trends of climate temperatures.
As a summary one can find that there is no evidence in reality, according to which human CO2 emissions could make any observable, threatening warming of climate be possible. Read more in the links https://judithcurry.com/2017/05/02/nyes-quadrant/#comment-848558 and https://judithcurry.com/2011/08/04/carbon-cycle-questions/#comment-198992.