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Comment on What exactly are we debating? by AK

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@Jim D…

Adding GHGs causes warming. For warming to happen there has to be an imbalance.

You’re begging the question in circles. Or else playing semantic bait&switch. Or perhaps both.

@lolwot…

It’s from the theory. The same theory that people are calculating ECS results off. Are they liars too?

They’re not calculating ECS off the theory, they’re calculating it off the output of a bunch of models that they claim model their theory, except for all the parametrizations they’ve had to make in order to get grid cells hundreds of kilometers across to act something a little like what real stretches of the Earth do. And yes, if they present their ECS as fact, rather than the current best estimate from models known to be deficient, they’re liars. And the fact that you ask this question just demonstrates how ignorant you are of the actual science.

Looks like to make Trenberth a liar we’ve had to devalue the word to meaninglessness.

Well, outside your ability to understand meaning.

What it really boils down to is that you don’t understand the subject.

You’re entitled to your opinion.

It’s like a skydragon calling Trenberth a liar because he put no uncertainty qualifications around the existence of the greenhouse effect.

No it’s not, and the fact that you think it is just demonstrates your ignorance.


Comment on What exactly are we debating? by AK

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@Brandon Shollenberger... <blockquote>What I said is true, by definition. That’s just how the phrase is defined. If a negative feedback is strong enough to reverse the direction of a forcing, it’s no longer a “feedback.” It gets some new name instead.</blockquote> Here's what I actually said: <blockquote> I spoke of the radiative balance at the TOA , which includes feedback from clouds, at least. More clouds equals more outgoing radiation, regardless of the “imbalance” created by more GHG’s.</blockquote> At no point did I limit my statement to whatever definition of "feedback" Pekka Pirilä uses. Or you. The effect I'm <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2013/05/07/more-on-the-pause/#comment-319936" rel="nofollow">talking about</a> has been <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/09/why-greenhouse-gases-heat-the-ocean/" rel="nofollow">demonstrated</a>, AFAIK, although also AFAIK not published in a peer-reviewed venue. It involves the difference between where at the ocean's surface long-wave from the greenhouse effect is absorbed vs. short-wave from the sun. The watt or two (per square meter) of excess downwelling IR from the greenhouse effect can be amplified by orders of magnitude under (some) conditions where it increases evaporation without increasing the temperature except by a slight amount in the top few hundred microns. Note that I'm talking about specific locations here, not averages. Note that with amplification, this effect could provide a great deal more (w/m^2 of) short-wave reflection to space than the original few watts from the greenhouse effect. At the specific locations where it occurs. Which could be many, or perhaps not. Has anyone studied it? The fact that so many people familiar with the modeling keep claiming that "cloud feedback" couldn't be larger than the original heat effect from greenhouse gas suggests not. My point is that there <b>is at least one mechanism</b> that could allow the entire network of "feedbacks" to produce an overall net average cooling in response to the "warming" effect from increased heat retention due to increased GHGs. Or zero. Or varying between net cooling and warming depending on conditions (ENSO anyone?).

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Wagathon

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Denialists could apologize for the Left's <em>Weltschmertz</em> out of sympathy but letting them know the polar bears are thriving would be the empathetic thing to do.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by stefanthedenier

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statement that: ”CO2 has increased in the atmosphere from approximately 0.029% to 0.039% over the past 50 years”

releasing certain amount of EXTRA CO2 in the atmosphere; doesn’t mean that the quantity increased by that much. The more is released -> the more rain washes CO2 onto the land and into the sea / rain is made to wash things. More algae / coral grow in the water -> get covered by sediments with carbon in it – new algae grow on the top of it.

CO2 is not evenly distribution – cities have more of it than in open areas b] daytime CO2 is lifted in the upper atmosphere = is minuscule close to the ground – after 9PM, CO2 loses the benefit of the sunlight and falls to the ground. Which means: after 9-10PM is high concentration close to the ground. which means: result in monitoring at different time in 24h, gives different concentration. Which means: ”if it was released that much extra, doesn’t mean that is in the atmosphere – therefore, the data is not real; but based on presumptions.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Bart R

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Steven Mosher | June 2, 2013 at 7:39 pm |

Is it the GWPF, or Peiser? https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/composition-division .. or mine is.

If I’m saying David Rose has exhibited bad faith while representing the GWPF position, and the GWPF policy of others than Peiser on secret funding supports a case for bad faith, then of course neither of these is a position of Peiser. But wasn’t Peiser talking about and behalf of the whole GWPF on these matters, as was Rose, as were those setting the policy of secrecy?

This is neither here nor there, of course, in addressing an ‘assumes bad faith’ weakness in an otherwise powerful case; I admit to a gloss, given the patent bad faith of the Peiser argument and the GWPF track record, and I admit to not needing to have gone there either way.

The plain fact is we’re both skeptics, and we both function on principles that demand deeper scrutiny of claims. This isn’t assuming bad faith. This is more like glasnost. I am performing the service for the GWPF that not so long ago you yourself said Marcott et al ought thank their critics for. Sauce goose. Sauce gander.

So yes, I’d like more context for clarity. Footnotes do no harm, if they want to make their presentation more accessible for those not crazed by details, while removing ambiguity. You aren’t a little interested by the high level of ambiguity, considering the history of the parties, if the whole point is to show where there is agreement? And agreement on the level of uncertainty, without exaggeration, would be rather key: if the GWPF position has huge uncertainty built in, and the dominant scientific view — whatever that is — has low uncertainty, how doesn’t that matter enough for a footnote?

And I have zero interest in showing good faith, or in being trusted. I invite skepticism of my arguments. I want skepticism of my arguments. I admire those who question the logic and research the fact and come to their own conclusion without reliance on the authority of strangers on a blog. Even if they suck at it, the few who do it with commitment to improving the discourse are rare gems.

In such spirit, I invite you to expand on how you find the GWPF premise and analyses good, beyond, ‘Yes.’

My approach has not been about my standards. My approach has been about I can’t know unambiguously what they’re saying from what they’ve written, or where one can know what they’re saying, they’re plain wrong on facts or reasoning. That’s hardly a personal standard. That’s more a universal standard.

So, no, the “good (enough) is the enemy of the perfect” fallacy does not apply. This is a case of the unclear obscures what is being said, the untrue needs identification as untrue, and the unwarranted false implication is the enemy of the naive reader.

Trivializing these principal objectives of any good faith participant in discourse as quibble is not supported. It’s true I do quibble, or more to the point I use quibbling to make points about things that aren’t quibbles. But it’s not true that I have no point rising in merit above quibble.

Also, it may be a quibble, but “The Man” in a lab is generally “The Martinet”. I’m okay with that.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Steven Mosher

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Nick

“Who are you? I’m dick. Nice to meet you.”
So the RS debated dick and won. Does that settle anything?
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yes it settles many things. Think now Nick. It could settle that dick
is a bad debator. It could settle that the RS is not afraid to debate.
If you are going to ask stupid questions make sure they are specific
stupid questions. By now you should understand that you cannot argue
by question. Some people can. You cannot. so stop it.

“If you want to concede to our position go ahead.”
Whose position?
The people debating, of course.

Who is the GWPF?

They are the global warming policy foundation. It’s an acronym. Each letter stands for a word.

Why should I care what position they have?

you should not care what position they have. Who suggested you should care? You might care about the position that other people have or not. But the issue is not whether you care or not. You can choose to ignore whatever you like. There could be consequences or not. In the end what you care about is not the issue. no one cares what you care.

It’s really dumb to try to argue by question. I would beat that out of most first year students in week one. There is still hope for you.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by GaryM

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No one represents skeptics. Skeptics are not acolytes of some central authority. (Even the few progressives among us do not bow to any central skeptic authority. And don’t get me started on the libertarians….) We leave that to you consensus sheep.

Besides, a debate between the RS and GWPF would not settle anything. It might be interesting, at best, but probably not even that. And i am still betting the RS will find a way out.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Steven Mosher

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Thats what I’m suggesting Peter.

You cannot validate a model without user requirements. Policy makers need to define the information they need and the level of accuracy they require.

otherwise scientists are put in an untenable situation of having to simulate reality exactly. in short, we are requiring perfection from them that we know is impossible.


Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Steven Mosher

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Peter

“Two of the most important and poorly understood inputs are the damage function”

That presupposes an analytical approach based on cost benefit.

Comment on Forget sustainability – it’s about resilience by Martin Clark

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Thanks Judith,
I agree with substituting “resilience” for “sustainability” – in fact, it is what I have been saying for a few years now :-)
I am a town planner and building designer, 43 years experience, expertise in climate-responsive design, mainly in relation to the tropics. I always promoted “sustainability”, then had to find a new term because sustainability has been mucked up by the usual suspects.
One criticism of sustainability in the construction context has been “there is always entropy”. I tend to disagree. Things made by people tend to wear out with use, sure, but buildings are often the opposite; they deteriorate much more rapidly if they are NOT used. I have worked on buildings that are hundreds of years old, eg early English/Welsh vernacular, some Roman, one at least built on foundations dating back to the Bronze Age, eg 5000 years? How’s that for “retention of embodied energy” :-)
Regards
Martin Clark

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by tcflood

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Peter,
Thanks.
I read the paper on CO2 + electrolytic methane most of the way through but I want to read it again and think about it and maybe do some back of the envelope thermo calculations before I discuss it with you. I haven’t forgotten it.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by tcflood

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by tcflood

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Sorry, electrolytic hydrogen — I think I’ll go to bed.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Jim D

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AK, no, it is very linear. Adding CO2 leads to an imbalance in the global radiative budget, just from radiative physics, that then leads to warming in the troposphere. This part is accepted by even Lindzen, Watts and Spencer and their fan, Monckton.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by Max_OK

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Judith Curry says “What do you think of Benny Peiser’s list of issues?”

Well, I just finished trying to verify how he came up with the first item on his list, and I failed.

Benny Peiser said “1.  There has been no net increase in global temperatures for about 16 years, a period about the same length as the warming period that preceded it.”
Three of the four most recognized global temperature metrics, including Hadcrut 4 used by Sen. Lamar Smith in his Washington Post op-ed, do not support Benny Pieser’s statement but do show warming in the 16 year period 1997-2012 was slower than warming in the previous 16 year period (see link to Figure #1). Using the latest monthly data (April 2013) as the end point instead of December 2012 gives results closer to his claim but again three of the four metrics do not support it (see link to Figure #2).

I suggest Mr. Peiser consider replacing his statement with one more precise, such as the following:

The globe has warmed considerably less in the last 16 years (1997-2012) than in the previous 16 years (1981-1996).

Mr. Peiser also might find useful an explanation of why the last 16 years are more important than a longer or shorter period. I have no suggestions.

Figure #1 Four global temperature metrics, 1981-1996 and 1997-2012 trends

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1981/to:2013/plot/uah/from:1981/to:1997/trend/plot/uah/from:1997%20/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1981/to:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1981/to:1997/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997/to:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1981/to:2013/plot/gistemp/from:1981/to:1997/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1997/to:2013/trend/plot/rss/from:1981/to:2013/plot/rss/from:1981/to:1997/trend/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2013/trend

Figure #2 Four global temperature metrics, May 1981- April 1997 and May 1997 – April 2013 trends

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1981.33/to:2013.33/plot/uah/from:1981.33/to:1997.33/trend/plot/uah/from:1997.33%20/to:2013.33/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1981.33/to:2013.33/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1981.33/to:1997.33/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1997.33/to:2013.33/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1981.33/to:2013.33/plot/gistemp/from:1981.33/to:1997.33/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1997.33/to:2013.33/trend/plot/rss/from:1981.33/to:2013.33/plot/rss/from:1981.33/to:1997.33/trend/plot/rss/from:1997.33/to:2013.33/trend

For information on how to use the woodfortrees interactive graph/analyses tool see
http://www.woodfortrees.org/help


Comment on What exactly are we debating? by GaryM

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“It would start with the “users” or policy makers or deciders telling people what kind of information they need to make their decisions.
do you need to know sea level increases to 10cm of accuracy? 30cm? 1 meter? If you dont know that before you start, you never know when you are finished.”

This doesn’t make sense any. It assumes the scientists can adjust the level of their accuracy based on the requirements of the policy makers. Accuracy is not a matter of choice. It is a product of the state of your knowledge, the quality of the medium (eg tree rings) you are measuring, the capability of your instruments, the intensity of your attention to detail.

Policy makers telling climate scientists in particular, “we need you to predict within sea level rise within these ranges” would just be ludicrous. You think the credibility of the science community is bad now? Let Obama, Reid, Pelosi and Pachauri tell the modellers to come up with sea level rises of a particular accuracy and wait for the howls of laughter.

Climate scientists are already perceived as tailoring their “science” to policy too much. You want to be a scientist? Do science. When you are done in the lab, you want to be and advocate? Advocate. But keep the advocacy out of the lab.

Comment on What exactly are we debating? by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

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” It involves the difference between where at the ocean’s surface long-wave from the greenhouse effect is absorbed vs. short-wave from the sun. The watt or two (per square meter) of excess downwelling IR from the greenhouse effect can be amplified by orders of magnitude under (some) conditions where it increases evaporation without increasing the temperature except by a slight amount in the top few hundred microns.

Note that I’m talking about specific locations here, not averages. Note that with amplification, this effect could provide a great deal more (w/m^2 of) short-wave reflection to space than the original few watts from the greenhouse effect. At the specific locations where it occurs. Which could be many, or perhaps not. “

First time I ever heard of that amplification mechanism. Without any further elaboration, it sounds like it violates a thermo law.

Comment on The inevitable climate catastrophe by Faustino

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Peter, thanks for that risk. At a glance, it provides a useful process for determining and ranking risks, as a guide to action. Judith, you might find it of interest. The Exec Summary says, inter alia:

“There are three types of risks as categorized by Professors Kaplan and Mikes. First are “preventable” risks, such as breakdowns in processes and mistakes by employees. Second are “strategic” risks, which a company undertakes voluntarily, having weighed them against the potential rewards. Third are “external” risks, which this report calls “global risks”; they are complex and go beyond a company’s scope to manage and mitigate (i.e. they are exogenous in nature). This differentiation will, we hope, not only improve strategic planning and decision-making but also increase the utility of our report in private and public sector institutions.

‘The concept of resilience also influenced this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey, on which this report is built. The annual survey of experts worldwide added a new question asking respondents to rate their country’s resilience – or, precisely, its ability to adapt and recover – in the face of each of the 50 risks covered in the survey. More than 1,000 experts responded to our survey, making the dataset explored in this report more textured and robust than ever.”

The report assesses risks in five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological. It also looks at links between various risks, a help in assessing the broader significance of particular risks.

Comment on The inevitable climate catastrophe by Faustino

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Oops, I meant “Thanks for that link.”

Comment on The inevitable climate catastrophe by Faustino

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johanna, your reply indicates the importance of having a wide view of things, rather than focussing on a single issue with little or no knowledge of or regard for the broader context. It is critical that issues such as alleged CAGW be assessed not only by those with specific expertise but by those with a wider understanding of the world and of policy-making – such as you and I. :-)

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