I think we can say that the liklehood of a 30% increase in non-condensing GHGs having no effect is rather slim.
I agree, it will have an effect! This effect will be so tiny that no one will be able to measure it and no one will separate this effect from the noise and no one will ever be able to know or understand if it caused warming or cooling. or anything.
Yep, it will most likely have a tiny effect. but we will never know for sure. Tiny things are like that. Mostly, we never really know.
Robert I Ellison: Very, very good!
To this day I still find it amazing that people could so easily criticize Palin’s qualifications for the VP position, yet completely ignore that President Obama’s qualifications for the top spot were even less.
If one had to choose the Presidency based solely on experience and qualifications, Palin should win out over Barack Obama every time.
While sailors in other boats were rallying around their comrades in the water, the commander of this boat injured himself in a hurry to get the Hell out of Dodge. One, two, three; yep, count ‘em. Two from disgraceful carelessness and one from damning cowardice.
Honest, kiddo, they were glad to see him go.
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The contrast between springer and Nott couldn’t be more stark. Leading edge science on extreme events and poorly conceived and executed parody that merely wastes time and clutters up the thread at great length.
http://research.jcu.edu.au/research/tess/people/staff/Nott_J
Does this – as a whole – meet the definition of cyber harassment – a serious question Judith -after so many occasions of this persons aggressive and seemingly obsessive dealings with me.
At any rate – climate extremes would seem to be eminently on topic.
Maybe, but there should be zero doubt that he is on board with it. Sec. Kerry self identifies as an environmentalist.
Since we do not know what adaptations will be required, we cannot say whether they will be harder or easier—more expensive or less—than emissions control.”
We do know one thing for sure. Emissions control will not work. It cannot work. Are we going to declare war on China and India and after winning the war, put in enough windmills for them that they don’t need to burn coal? I don’t think so.
CO2 Emissions control is impossible for the whole Earth.
CO2 Emissions control is impossible for the whole world.
Emissions control for bad stuff is good.
Emissions control for good stuff is bad.
CO2 is good stuff that makes green stuff grow better with less water. More is much better!
Yah, so anthropogenic warming is now shoving us more quickly into the next glaciation. Got it.
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Hmmm, recursively enumerable. I like that.
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Yes, R, I catch your meaning, but ‘millenarist’ may be the word you’re after. You might be amused by the distinction between the two.
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The only rational way for anyone seriously worried about global warming to adapt climate change is to invest in more air conditioning and more energy.
This belief in cataclysms came from a time when dragons were real, and their kings were feared.
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“GCMs model the planet. Like all models subcomponents are modelled at various levels of fidelity.”
They model it at a 360 * 180 resolution mostly. The picture of an average aircraft if thus modelled/displayed does leave a little to be desired. I’m not sure I would want to fly in it!
Or move a quarter of a mile poleward every generation.
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R. Gates, Skeptical Warmist, from the Rosenthal Manuscript:
43 2. Age models
Accelerator mass spectrometry (WHOI AMS facility) 1444 C dates were obtained on
45 mixed planktonic species (primarily G. ruber and G. sacculifer) and corrected and
46 converted to calendar age (5) using a reservoir age correction of 500 years for all the
3
cores (6) (Table S1). In core 13GGC we identified a 47 n ash layer at 3 cm depth, which we
48 assumed to be Mt. Tambora ash layer, and therefore assigned this depth the age of the last
49 eruption 1815 CE.
50 We generated several high-resolution records of the Common Era (CE) using a
51 combination of multi- and gravity cores. The composite records have higher resolution
52 and more replication than the longer ones. The age models for the gravity cores are
53 based on AMS radiocarbon dating. The chronology of the multi-cores is based on several
54 criteria. All multi-core tops contained sigifivant amounts of bomb radiocarbon.
Therefore, we use the similarity between the planktonic foraminiferal δ1355 C records and
the decrease in atmospheric δ1356 C (aka Suess Effect) to date the top-most part of the multi
57 cores, whereas AMS radiocarbon dating was used to determine the age of the bottom of
58 the multi-cores. We assume a linear age change between the top and bottom, and tested
this assumption using lead isotopes (21059 Pb) dating and correlation of distinctive ash layers
60 in these cores with known historic volcanic eruptions (e.g., Mt Tambora’s eruption in
61 1815). For details see MSc thesis by Katharine L. Esswein (7).
That’s from the Supporting Online Material.
They do not have sufficiently accurate estimates of dates or other measured quantities to compare rates of warming in ancient times to the rate of warming of the last decade. They also sample a pretty small section of the Pacific Ocean.
Rates are estimated from ratios, and when the denominators of the ratios are poorly estimated, the ratios are poorly estimated. Here the errors in measurement are substantial.
R. Gates
Just looked at that interesting paleo study on ocean temperatures which you cited.
Some excerpts that caught my eye:
Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades.
and
Between 9 and 6 ka, the 500-m IWT trends resemble the NH surface high latitude reconstruction (24), suggesting that the HTM was 2.5 ± 0.4°C warmer than in the late 20th century. This is consistent with the surface estimate of 2.1 ± 0.2°C for the 30°N to 90°N latitudinal belt and is more than double the global ~0.7°C trend (24). The records from the deeper (600- to 900-m) sites, which arguably receive greater contributions from the SH, indicate that the IWT was 1.5 ± 0.4°C warmer during the HTM than the late 20th century.
and
The inferred similarity in temperature anomalies at both hemispheres is consistent with recent evidence from Antarctica (30), thereby supporting the idea that the HTM, MWP, and LIA were global events.
and
The comparison suggests that Pacific OHC was substantially higher during most of the Holocene than in the past decade (2000 to 2010), with the exception of the LIA. The difference is statistically significant, even if the OHC changes apply only to the western Pacific (~25% Pacific volume), although there are indications that similar trends extended farther east (15). The modern rate of Pacific OHC change is, however, the highest in the past 10,000 years (Fig. 4 and table S3).
So the paleo reconstruction suggests that:
- The ocean was warmer than today over most of the Holocene, except for the LIA
- The HTM was global and 1.5°C ± 0.4°C to 2.5°C± 0.4°C warmer than today
- The MWP was global and ~0.65°C warmer than today
- The LIA was global and ~0.25°C colder than today
- The modern rate of change is highest in past 10,000 years (as you wrote)
Hey, I can go along with these conclusions, Gates, keeping in mind that studies using paleo climate proxies are dicey to start off with and have an even harder time with rates of change than they do with absolute temperatures.
Can you go along with these conclusions, as well?
Thanks for a reply.
Max
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“The model is an anthropic algorithmic abbreviation (reduction)of the natural algorithm (reality) hence the simulations are solely an experiment on the program generating it ,and not an experiment on the reality.”
1. All models are anthropic algorithmic reductions, Unless you know a martian that does one.
2. Nobody claimed that simulations were experiments on reality. The primary motivation of simulation is that experiments are too big too expensive or too dangerous. We simulate the effects of bullets hitting planes ( Covart and shotline) because actually shooting at them is HUGELY expensive.. although once we did shoot up a couple F/A-18As. talk about a waste.
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As in reality the solutions are insolvable ie they are infinite(Diophantine), so we have an oxymoronic set of simulators providing simulations for insolvable equations.
we successfully simulate insolvable equations all the time.
“They model it at a 360 * 180 resolution mostly. The picture of an average aircraft if thus modelled/displayed does leave a little to be desired. I’m not sure I would want to fly in it!”
#####################
you probably have flown in it,
The point was the OP has no idea whatthe difference between a model and a simulation is
‘When the thousand years are over, Satan will be released from his prison and will go out to deceive the nations in the four corners of the earth—Gog and Magog—and to gather them for battle. In number they are like the sand on the seashore.’
The distinction escapes me – both are terms for the 1000 year prophecies of the Book of Revelations. In modern usage both refer to a belief in coming cataclysm.
But just on another issue – I activated the notification email with this comment. Scanning hundreds of emails is a fairly clumsy way of scanning posts – but the reply button in the email circumvents any rationale for the single indent format. Making replies to specific comments possible but inserting out of sequence comments in increasingly long and unwieldy threads – at the cost of making the progression even less logical. It is time to increase the nesting again Judy.
