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Comment on Bonfire of insanity by DocMartyn

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Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. just defaulted on a bond, the first major default in modern Chinese history.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/chaori-solar-fails-to-make-interest-payments-on-bond-wsj-says.html

The Chinese solar sector is massively in debt, has an economic model of continued expansion based on cheap credit, is in an oversupplied market and is facing a huge drop in demand as European Governments slash subsides.

The Chaori default has caused a slump in the Metals markets,

http://www.mrw.co.uk/news/metals-prices-fall-as-china-firms-default-on-loans/8660200.article?blocktitle=Latest-news—recycling-and-waste-management&contentID=2182

The Chinese solar companies are likely to fall like dominoes, taking their suppliers with them, until there are just one or two big survivors left.


Comment on Bonfire of insanity by jim2

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Looks like Congress let wind have a late Christmas gift. Without this subsidy, the only birds would be enjoying wind energy. $23 per megawatt-hour is what’s insane here.

CORRECTED-Vestas December orders hit monthly record in rush for U.S. tax credits

Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:45am EST

(Corrects 11th paragraph to say share price has quintupled, not quadrupled)

By Shida Chayesteh and Ole Mikkelsen

Dec 27 (Reuters) – Turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems has received its highest ever monthly total of orders in December as wind farm developers in the United States rushed to meet a year-end deadline to qualify for a tax credit.

The Danish company booked orders for capacity of 1,346 megawatts (MW) in December and is set for its second-best sales ever in the United States this year, according to Nordea Markets analysts.

The Unites States has been offering a Production Tax Credit (PTC) to help finance wind farm projects to promote renewable energy. Last January, the U.S. congress extended the credit for one more year.

While the wind energy sector is seeking a further extension, many developers are keen to ensure they qualify now for the credit, which is worth $23 for every megawatt-hour of electricity a wind farm produces over its first 10 years.

In previous years, projects had to be in commercial operation by Dec. 31. This year, they need only to have begun.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/27/vestas-orderstatus-idUSL6N0K21QV20131227

Comment on The Art of Science Advice to Government by Danley Wolfe

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This has been a very worthwhile and interesting post … but has degraded into insults and name calling … how bout maybe next time setting the rules of engagement and blocking violators. Signing off, bye bye.

Comment on Bonfire of insanity by DocMartyn

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“co-firing occurs only in very old coal power plants that are very inefficient and no longer meet clean air regulations, like NOx emissions”

Drax is a modern power station, having rebuilds in the mid-80′s and again in the late 90′s; capturing NOx/SOx and particulates.
The turbine hall was given its last full upgrade 18 months ago.

Comment on Bonfire of insanity by AK

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@Bob Ludwick...<blockquote> I don’t know about weeds, since few commercial greenhouse operators produce them. And I have no idea how much it would cost</blockquote>Well, I don't know that much, although I <b>do</b> know a fair amount about evolution, and I've spent some time with peer-reviewed science regarding weeds. I see a risk. <b>Not a certainty</b>, but a risk that an outbreak of "sleeper weeds" could impact agriculture. As well as a more distributed risk of other types of catastrophic (in the mathematical sense) eco-reorganizations. Such things could potentially have major impacts on our (world-wide) economic system, perhaps even to the same extent as a collapse caused by dramatic rises in energy prices. Both risks should, IMO, be reduced, by keeping the price of energy low, while pursuing "low-regrets" options to minimize the risk from fossil carbon. As Steven Mosher has pointed out, any (unquantified) benefit to crops from increased atmospheric pCO2 can be balanced by a(n unquantified) risk from newly evolved "sleeper weeds". This was, of course, implicit in my original statement that "weeds are plants". &@DocMartyn... More greenhouses are a good idea, since it would probably reduce humanity's agricultural footprint on the planet, as well as making an <b>enormous</b> contribution to adaptability. And not only regular greenhouses, but especially <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawater_greenhouse" rel="nofollow">seawater greenhouses</a>.

Comment on Bonfire of insanity by DocMartyn

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There is a sure fire was to have deserts; add people and goats to a region.

Comment on Bonfire of insanity by PMHinSC

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R. Gates, a Skeptical Warmist | March 16, 2014 at 12:43 pm |
Stupid decisions are oddly almost always made with someone getting wealthy along the way.

Hay, watch it: quit talking about Al Gore like that!

Comment on Bonfire of insanity by beththeserf

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‘A little learning is a dangerous thing;
Drink deep or taste not the Pierian spring:
There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
And drinking largely sobers us again.’

H/t Pope – Alexander I mean.


Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by David Appell (@davidappell)

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They are not defining value only by the profits of the industry. “The VA of an industry is the market value of output minus the market value of inputs, not including the factors of production—labor, land, and capital.” (pg 1663)

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by mwgrant

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Simple approaches to problems solved at least one problem for me…making a living.

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by Kneel

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OT, please delete if want JC.

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, The courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference.”

I prefer changing the last sentence to:
“And the wisdom to hide the bodies of all the people I had to kill because they really p***ed me off!”

;-)

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by k scott denison

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David, if you’ll post your address I’ll send you a dollar so you can buy a clue. The improvement in the health in much of the world is due quite literally to the extensive use of fossil fuels in the US, UK and other developed nations. Do you know why?

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by stefanthedenier

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simplify, cut the rot, cross the irrelevant zeroes. Complicating things, as: solar influence, which is irrelevant, because the self adjusting mechanism will prove everybody wrong; oxygen &nitrogen are regulating the OVERALL temp. Volcanoes are irrelevant, they don’t even last for long.

Complicating things is for indoctrinating / confusing the fanatics from both camps…: ..http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/

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Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by Curious George

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“It is ultimately all about energy budgets”. I agree. Then models should not use incorrect assumptions about energy transfer by a latent heat of water vaporization, of all things.

Comment on Week in review by John Carpenter


Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by Curious George

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by Curious George

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I have more trust in an increasing computing power. Unfortunately I have no trust in climate modelers.

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by Mark Silbert

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I want to thank everyone for sparing me from having to reply to Mr. Appell.

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by DocMartyn

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capt, don’t forget that if the models don’t hindcast as well as they like, they can also change the temperature record or aerosol model or the ozone or any manner of ‘forcings’. Indeed, failing at hindcasting would take real work.

Comment on Simplicity amidst complexity (?) by stevefitzpatrick

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David Appell,

I fully understand the difference between an initial value problem and a boundary value problem. The Earth’s climate is some of both, over a wide range of time scales. But you seem to be missing the bigger point: Confirmation that the model parametrizations and assumed aerosol offsets are ‘correct’ is what is missing… and we already know the assumed aerosol offsets are mostly wrong, since they are different for each model group (which means they are little more than a kludge!). Each time the models have been tested against reality (eg ocean heat uptake when ARGO data became available, tropospheric waring profiles from balloons and satellites) they have been found lacking.

Real model confirmation can only come from better performance over time (in temperature evolution, yes, but in lots of other variables as well, like patterns of warming and rainfall, simulation of ENSO, etc.) combined with much better measurement based constrains on aerosol influences, both direct and indirect. The argument Isaac is making seems little better than ‘trust us’… and in light of all the hype surrounding GHG driven warming, that really is unpersuasive.

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