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Comment on Asymmetric responses of Arctic and Antarctic by RACookPE1978

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“Modestly increasing” Antarctic sea ice extents?

Today, 16 June the excess Anatrctic sea ice area = 1.43 Mkm^2. (1.43 million square kilometers above the normal.

Well, when the excess Antarctic sea ice was +1.0 Mkm^2 in February with the minimum sea normal ice at 2.0 Mkm^2, does an excess of 33% seem “modest” ? What is “modest” increase? A value back in 2010 of +.25 Mkm^2 against an area in September of 19.0 Mkm^2? What value do they want to look at (er, cherry pick) to decide a “modest” ANtarctic sea ice excess? (And always remember to check “sea ice area” against “sea ice extent” .. the two are different.)

Right now? We have an excess Antarctic sea ice area of 1.43 Mkm^2, but a total area of only 10 Mkm^2. Is a mere 14% excess a “modest” gain? Is the Arctic’s “devastating” or frightening sea ice loss of -.98 Mkm^2 at a total Arctic area of 10 Mkm^2? Is that Arctic loss really worse than +1.43 Mkm^2 gain down south if the Arctic loss occurs at very high latitudes with less solar elevation angle even at the solstice? Now (today) of course the Arctic sea ice is melting – it does every year. But today (mid-June and early July) that Arctic sea ice only has a 0.40 – 0.46 albedo. That excess Antarctic sea ice is increasing – and THAT year-by-year increase is not slowing at all.


Comment on On the AR4′s projected 0.2C/decade temperature increase by Jim D

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You can’t carry out experiments with the real climate, so the next best thing is to carry out experiments with a model of the real climate. First you check it approximates the climate, then you perturb it, from which much can be learned that can’t be from just observing the one example of a climate that we have. The forcing perturbations are only about 1%, so the model validity is not challenged.

Comment on What is the measure of scientific ‘success’? by michael hart

Comment on What is the measure of scientific ‘success’? by David Young

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The recent editorial in the Economist is a good summary of some of the problems with the academic reward structure.

I’ve seen a lot of grant proposals and the successful grant getters at the best universities are very well paid by any standard. A lot of academics have their own companies and some of them have been quite lucrative. Now there is a lot of sweat equity in these companies, but they also benefit from the essentially free labor of graduate students who are very poorly paid and usually pretty bright and hard working.

The main problem I see with the grant system is just that there are “fashions” in research and usually grantors are really trying to pursue something fashionable that they can then sell to the real source of the money, the government. I actually have found that fundamental research usually suffers in this setting and “colorful” or “impactful” research prospers even if its real substance is nil. I’ve heard this complaint a lot in engineering from some really top people where the last decades fad was “design” which is in their view really about interfaces, visualization, etc. and not about fundamental understanding or improved methods. Some very top notch people have moved based on these kind of considerations even late in their careers. There are still some holdouts places that do real hard analysis research.

Another thing I have found in reviewing proposals is that there is a strong tendency to oversell the research and to put the very best face on the positive impacts. That’s a function of the extremely competitive environment. A lot of the literature from some of the “top” academics while not without merit is not replicatible by others at least in my experience. The Economist is excellent on the reasons for this too.

Comment on What is the measure of scientific ‘success’? by David Young

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Steve, Your observations about synthesizing existing results is very good one. There is tremendous value in a clear and careful exposition of well known results. It is also an excellent teaching vehicle.

Comment on On the AR4′s projected 0.2C/decade temperature increase by Don Monfort

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What model validity, jimmy dee? And for the sake of accuracy, let’s call it pretending to do experiments with alleged models of the real climate.

Comment on What is the measure of scientific ‘success’? by David Young

Comment on What is the measure of scientific ‘success’? by michael hart

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You can often see them puching the air in a departmental mass-spectrometry lab. I was gobsmacked by a guy who could recognise the tin isotope patterns at 10 yards.


Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by 5 years later: checking up on the 2-minute hate at George Will about melting of the polar ice | Fabius Maximus

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[…] “What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice?“, by Judith Curry (Prof, GA Inst Tech), 17 June 2014 — Conclusion: […]

Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by Greg Goodman

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in Mosh’ case oops probably means the same as durr or duh. Mocking condescension.

Comment on Open thread by Ragnaar

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This is the 1st of currently four posts about new solar climate model:
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-part-i-historic-development-new-solar-climate-model-coming/

Quite good though I don’t know where it’s going and how it will be accepted.

Long story short. Solar Magnetic Field Strength correlates with the GAT as here: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/sosoon1.png

The above would suggest a reason for the hiatus. It also suggests the oceans were paying attention to what the sun was doing at stopped throwing so much heat into the atmosphere.

Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by Greg Goodman

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Well the simplistic positive feedback idea that lead to death spiral thinking does not seem to be happening , so there must other negative feedbacks going on.

Albedo is not the only consideration in the surface energy budget. Evaporation will present a substantial negative f/b when more water is exposed. The low incidence angle reflectivity I mentioned above seems to be getting ignored so far

There seems to be a dominant mindset in climatology that they “know” it’s catastrophic and they just have to prove it “before it’s too late”.

This leads to a focus on +ve f/b phenomena and catastrophic models which feed into bias confirmation and get accepted. More “studies” get published with death spirals in the abstract.

As Dr Curry has been saying since 2006, there is a need to get back to objectivity and scientific method in climate science.

Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by Ragnaar

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Also, if the nose is high – full power. If the nose is low – idle the engine.

Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by Ragnaar

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Looking at the color picture of the scientists near the melt ponds, someone could figure out what time of day it was taken using a shadow. I am guessing near noon.

Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by Greg Goodman

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Indeed, this is all part of a mindset where things were fine til we came along. Without human intervention, all climate indices would be locked at their 1860 mean value with nothing but short term weather variations.

A totally spurious idea that natural climate variation is negligible and that anything which has happened in the last 150 years is “unprecedented”.


Comment on What can we expect for this year’s Arctic sea ice? by Ragnaar

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The Operation Was a Success, but the Patient Died. Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.
They found a patient. Now they are going to cure it.

Comment on Open thread by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

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Those are pathetic arguments. What is that guy doing? Invoking a notch filter to explain why a TSI signal is not getting through? That is plain ridiculous.

The much more plausible explanation is that the TSI signal is at the 0.05C level and you need a sophisticated tool such as CSALT to pull that signal out of the rest of the natural variability factors (such as ENSO, volcanic eruptions, etc).

My question is : Where do they find these people?

Comment on On the AR4′s projected 0.2C/decade temperature increase by Eric

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From thelast 5years of data we know that the models are underestimating by about .06C per decade.

Comment on Open thread by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

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Nobody cares Tisdale about your waste of space drivel.

Comment on Steven Hayward: Conservatism and Climate Science by WebHubTelescope (@WHUT)

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jim2 | June 16, 2014 at 10:44 pm |

I WHT JC Snipping himself as a pity ploy?

That shows you what kind of “genius” you are jiim2. How could Cappy have referenced what I wrote if I had snipped it before submitting the comment? He obviously saw it before someone snipped it out.

BTW, Chief Skippy is the one that has been admitting to placing the “JC Snip” s in his own comments. And of course it is to gain pity.

So you whiffed on one and scored an own goal on the other. Congrats.

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