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Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by willard (@nevaudit)

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> why do you have such a hard time criticizing your own?

But Mike. And now Mike’s my own. And now I never criticize my own. The “seemingly blind” riposte again, in a thread about distraction. While refuse to acknowledge that one does simply ghostwrite in Mordor.

Splendidly played!

That’s an interesting question nevertheless. Let’s see if this response would work:

If you believe something else needs an audit, feel free to do it yourself instead of posting disingenuous BS.

http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/05/what-exactly-is-going-on-in-their-heads/#comment-625209

H/T jim2.


Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Carrick

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Carrick

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willard some days… you are a virtual self parody and it is very hard to take you seriously. Lets just say your behavior speaks much more loudly that your sophism ever could.

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by verytallguy

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What a wonderful encapsulation of the climate wars.

First we have the obsessive overplaying of details (BE! BE I tell you! Nonsense!), in this case over a couple of pages out of 700 and before anyone could possibly have digested the whole book.

Then the vituperation (Amazon review)

The densely argued riposte.

Victory is declared on both sides, although no-one has moved from their original positions.

The meta-analysis follows (your tribe! you wouldn’t do it to one of your own!)

Conspiracy ideation based on libertarian economics starts to abound (“The goal will be to allow discrediting any new modelling based on new work in this book, any use of this book as a reference, anything else that could undercut the “settled science” used to support their agenda since Kyoto”. Priceless. Someone should tell Lewandowsky.)

Plus the hallmark of this blog, incivility and insults (runt! you whiny girl!!)

And all this over a rather obscure (sorry Judith not meant to be an insult, but we all know this isn’t going into the Amazon top 10) textbook.

I feel for Vitaly.

I bet Willard has enjoyed it.

Comment on How long is the pause? by Frederick Colbourne

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Dr Curry says, “The big issue with length of the pause is comparison with climate model predictions;…”

My understanding is that CGMs do not predict but merely explore scenarios.

Dr. Lennart Bengtsson and co-authors submitted a paper to Environmental Research Letters that compared the projections of models with the climate as actually observed. More specifically, the paper was concerned with inferences about climate sensitivity from observations and climate sensitivity as estimated in IPCC reports. The reviewer who rejected Bengtsson’s paper did so because the comparison between the IPCC (model) estimates and inferences drawn from observations is not relevant to the discussion about climate change.

The distinguished scientists who supported the rejection of Dr Bengtsson’s paper know what skill the models have and do not have. They know that the models are not fit for the purpose of predicting anything, but are merely research tools used to explore the ideas of the modelers and their clients.

This is obvious from the fact that for over a decade the models have not converged but have diverged.

The estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 is greater now than it has been for a decade. But four papers by NASA scientists and their colleagues from other institutions illuminate the reasons for uncertainty.

Stephens et al. stated,

“The net energy balance is the sum of individual fluxes. The current uncertainty in this net surface energy balance is large, and amounts to approximately 17 Wm–2. This uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the changes to the net surface fluxes associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Fig. 2b). The uncertainty is also approximately an order of magnitude larger than the current estimates of the net surface energy imbalance of 0.6 ±0.4 Wm–2 inferred from the rise in OHC. The uncertainty in the TOA net energy fluxes, although smaller, is also much larger than the imbalance inferred from OHC.”
[Emphasis added.]

Observations of radiative flux are the observations that count, not measurements of surface temperature that are influenced by oceanic oscillations. These oceanic oscillations are so important because the heat capacity of the oceans is greater than two orders of magnitude greater than the atmosphere.

Yet estimates of radiative flux based on the best instruments available have uncertainties (error bars) that include positive, zero and negative net radiative flux.

The uncertainties in observed radiative flux tell us that the net flux surplus or deficit are so close to zero that interannual variations in total TSI, its spectral components, or internal variability in the climate system could produce either pause or a change in direction of the trend in net warming or cooling.

Graeme L. Stephens et al, An update on Earth’s energy balance in light of the latest global observations. Nature Geoscience Vol. 5 October 2012

Loeb et al, Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. Nature Geoscience VOL 5 February 2012.

Loeb et a. (2009): Toward Optimal Closure of the Earth’s Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget based on satellite observations. J.of Climate, AMS, V.22, p.748.

Pamela E. Mlynczak, G. L. Smith and P. W. Stackhouse Jr. Interannual variations of surface radiation budget, 22nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change

References here: http://geoscienceenvironment.wordpress.com/2014/09/04/the-emperors-of-climate-alarmism-wear-no-clothes/

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Carrick

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Rob, if you want to argue for other uses of the words, and you want me to take your comments seriously, I’d suggest you provide references to your preferred meanings. I have tried to do so on my part, but you seem to have selectively ignored that.

I don’t doubt they exist wrt phenomenology, but I seriously doubt that you’ll get many agreeing that model = theory.”

I’ve already pointed out though, that phenomenology means a very different thing that what you interpret it to be, and provided a reference.

Again from the wiki,

The term phenomenology in science is used to describe a body of knowledge that relates empirical observations of phenomena to each other, in a way that is consistent with fundamental theory, but is not directly derived from theory.

I differ slightly from their interpretation, but not in any great way. I would say you could have a phenomenological model that is built on empirical observations (not theory driven at all).

Their definition is clearly at odds with your preferred one, because you seem to be arguing that phenomenological is a synonym for empirical.

(From a linguistic perspective I really don’t get why people try to gete two distinct words to mean the same thing…)

I haven’t used the term deterministic to this point. The opposite of deterministic is “probabilistic”, rather than “empirical “. So this is again another axis for describing models, which is generally orthogonal to the others:

theoretical ⬄ phenomenological
mechanistic (fundamental) ⬄ empirical (statistical)
deterministic ⬄ probabilistic

I’m just not sure why it would be useful to shoehorn what are clearly different concepts into just two possible eigenstates.

You could have a deterministic empirical model for example (when the error bars are small enough they can be ignored—this does happen). Or you could have a probabilistic one (this is more common I think). Generally empirical models are phenomenological ones, which is where I think the confusion comes in. But it’s a case of “all X are Y” does not imply “all Y are X”. Just because (nearly) all empirical models are phenomenological, doesn’t mean that all phenomenological models are empirically based.

Anyway I’ve run this into the ground. Moving on.

Comment on Thermodynamics, Kinetics and Microphysics of Clouds by nottawa rafter

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Web
Given your absence on the Vitaly post I was beginning to feel sorry for you because your errors were so obvious. I even thought your embarrassment was so great you may never show up again. Silly me. No, there is no embarrassment. You are over here talking to yourself trying to repair your self esteem given the shellacking the world has witnessed. Take it like man! Address the Vitaly points one by one. You will feel better for it. It will pave the way for your recovery. Think of all the great men of history who admitted their mistakes and redeemed themselves. What great company you could be in.

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by curryja

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I also made a substantial number of edits in markup which VK approved. He suggested this be a joint reply from us, but I thought it more appropriate that the response was directly from him.


Comment on Thermodynamics, Kinetics and Microphysics of Clouds by Peter Davies

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WHT seems to have reached some sort of tipping point in his solo efforts to persuade readers of CE to be concerned about global warming. I sincerely hope that he learns from this and moves on – even if he chooses to move away from Judith’s blog.

He has put a lot of unpaid work into what he believes in and he does indeed have a solid background in the sciences of math and physics which I have always respected.

Comment on Thermodynamics, Kinetics and Microphysics of Clouds by Jonathan Abbott

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Yeah, I was pretty dismayed to see he’s still at it. No better than Michael or Joshua.

Comment on Thermodynamics, Kinetics and Microphysics of Clouds by PhysicistDave

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(I’m placing this at the bottom here because the subthreads have become so complex as to be unnaviagable.)

Pekka Pirilä wrote:
>Perhaps, if any real physicists (i.e. not Webdummy) are involved in (or wish to be involved in) the discussion, they might comment.

Pekka, I am a real physicist: Ph.D. from Stanford in elementary-particle physics, later worked in semiconductor-device physics (so, I know, e.g., all about the Fermi surface to which WHT has alluded).

I took QM and intro to elementary-particle physics from Nobelist Richard Feynman at Caltech as an undergrad; I took quantum field theory from Nobelist Steve Weinberg at Stanford (Steve was on sabbatical visiting Stanford). I know about bosons and fermions, a fair amount about bosons and fermions.

On that issue, Web is simply and deeply wrong. There are an even number of fermions in a standard neutral water molecule. That gives an integral spin (an even number of half-integral spins gives an integral spin). Integral spins give bosons. QED.

It really is as simple as that.

I assume anyone reading this can count up the number of fermions (electrons, protons, and neutrons) in a water molecule and note that the number is even.

No one who has studied college physics should need a cite to show that integral spin particles are bosons, but for anyone who does: The Feynman Lectures on Physics, vol III, p.15-6 “particles with integral spins are bosons…” Note that this was intended to be a sophomore physics text (and the physical copy I am quoting from is indeed the copy I used my sophomore year at Caltech).

Anyone who doubts that “particles” include composite particles should remember that this is the explanation of superfluidity in normal helium: a normal helium atom is a boson because it has integral spin.

Anyone who does not know all this lacks basic competence in physics.

I am not casting aspersions on the details of WHTs professional work. But, when it comes to fundamental physics… well, what he said about bosons speaks for itself.

I will add that I too am skeptical that the bosonic nature of H2O is relevant to its behavior in clouds, but, then again, I am not sure of that, not being a cloud expert, and I do not know exactly what Judith and her co-author said on that, since I do not have a copy of the book yet.

But, WHT would dramatically increase his credibility if he would admit that he was wrong in saying that a normal H2O molecule is not a boson. (Web, if you admitted it above and I missed it, sorry for missing it.)

Dave Miller in Sacramento

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by cwon14

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Joshua is last resource on Earth to be used to arbitrate the issue of “bias” as if he was coherent. The concept of equivocating the actions and political culture of establishment participants (consensus) to that of broad dissent is the essence of fascist rationalization. Joshua isn’t merely a board buffoon and thread jacker, he’s the complete green “New Man” devoid of acknowledging reality or self-awareness. His process is completely disingenuous as it designed to avoid at all costs the politicized reality of the climate advocacy history from the inception and current stages via false equivalent Sophistry defense posture.

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Joshua

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==> “(runt! you whiny girl!!)”

My favorite part.

Comment on Thermodynamics, Kinetics and Microphysics of Clouds by Joshua

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==> ” Address the Vitaly points one by one. ”

Yes. Wait until Judith does that with Gavin’s response to her, and her analysis of Salby’s work…..then follow her lead.

Although “Take it like man! “ doesn’t quite apply in those cases.

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Joshua

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==> “I pity Mr Khvorostyanov and Ms Curry for the time they spent in addressing uninformed nonsense from WHU”

Wow. We’ve escalated from being concerned that they were “distracted” and “hijacked” to “pity” because of the hardships they’ve endured.

OIh. The humanity!!!!

It’s drama-queenapalooza around here.

But all I can say is thanks god that a bad review on Amazon for a textbook has been addressed!!!!!11!!! Thanks god!!!!!1!!!!!


Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by dennis

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Joshua’s only purpose is to waste time (and space), so for him it’s mission accomplished.

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by AK

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<blockquote>Conspiracy ideation based on libertarian economics starts to abound [,,,]</blockquote>Conspiracy is <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2014/08/19/institutionalizing-dissent/#comment-619579" rel="nofollow">part of our evolutionary heritage</a>, it makes sense that an ability to see conspiracy is adaptive.<blockquote>Someone should tell Lewandowsky</blockquote>Lewandowsky is welcome to study my mind. I've been studying his (if any). As well as his <a href="http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/" rel="nofollow">involvement</a> in conspiracy to publish junk as science denigrating people he doesn't like.

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Joshua

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==/> “Joshua’s only purpose is to waste time (and space), so for him it’s mission accomplished.”

Dude. You forgot “distract” and “derail.”

I’ve only got those four purposes. Please don’t leave any of what little purpose I have..

Comment on Vitaly Khvorostyanov responds by Michael

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Entertaining again.

Who would have thought that the denizens and Judith would be so happy that a crticial comment (an Amazon book revew – oh, the inhumanity!) is erased. Think of the free-speech implications!!

Moreover, the response to an errorneous critique. How instructive it has been. Is this the new standard?

Whatever will Judith do with Rud’s posts?? Delete them?

Comment on Thermodynamics, Kinetics and Microphysics of Clouds by AK

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Please don't blame that on Pekka, that was me. I was actually asking for comments regarding my interpretation of a Wiki entry as meaning:<blockquote>“Fermi–Dirac” and/or “Bose–Einstein” statistics are always the correct formulation, but under many more usual conditions (“high temperature or at low concentration”) you don’t need to waste computing power with them, but can use “Maxwell–Boltzmann” statistics as an acceptable approximation.</blockquote>Thank you for your comment, although both <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/04/thermodynamics-kinetics-and-microphysics-of-clouds/#comment-625825" rel="nofollow">Tomas Milanovic</a> and <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/08/vitaly-khvorostyanov-responds" rel="nofollow">Vitaly Khvorostyanov</a> have confirmed my (informed) speculation.
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