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Comment on New presentations on sea ice by TJA

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So even though the probability of success of this compact design may be just 5%, I don’t really know how to “calculate” such a probability, it’s still proposing some particular things and changes of the strategy that should be discussed using scientific arguments and the critics, even those related to plasma physics at famous universities, aren’t doing that. – Lubos Motl

I agree with Lubos on all points here FOMD.

But I never expect you to discuss any science that has a political dimension using scientific arguments.

Maybe it will happen, maybe it won’t. But saying it hasn’t happened in the past is no argument, it is more motivated sophistry.


Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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“What you guys don’t realise is that the air molecules move between collisions at a speed of about 500 metres per second. That translational kinetic energy totally dominates all your calculations pertaining to the bulk kinetic energy which is orders of magnitude less, even in a hurricane.”

Bulk kinetic energy just doesn’t figure at all in the derivation of the dry adiabatic lapse rate, and in the explanation of the process of adiabatic expansion of the rising parcel of air whereby this pressure gradient is established. It is only internal energy that’s relevant (i.e. the disorganized KE of the molecules as defined in the co-moving referential frame of the rising parcel of air, in the case of an ideal gas).

Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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“No rising gas, no expansion or contraction, no surface, no direct solar radiation and no internal heat generation or long-term cooling is needed for there to be a temperature gradient which is always found in every planetary troposphere.”

Oops. I replied to the previous message not realizing ‘its.not.co2′ just is another 0%-acrylic sock-puppet.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by TJA

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So even though the probability of success of this compact design may be just 5%, I don’t really know how to “calculate” such a probability, it’s still proposing some particular things and changes of the strategy that should be discussed using scientific arguments and the critics, even those related to plasma physics at famous universities, aren’t doing that. – Lubos Motl

I agree with Lubos on all points here FOMD.

But I never expect you to discuss any science that has a political dimension using scientific arguments.

Maybe it will happen, maybe it won’t. But saying it hasn’t happened in the past is no argument, it is more motivated sophistry.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by anng

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The reason no one looked, was so that they could hype it up as a CO2-driven problem. The Arctic is not as cold and icy as it has been in the past, so can’t be used as a ‘fingerprint’ for CO2. First you need to know what the arctic would be like now without the human emissions. Impossible.

Comment on Open thread by Rob Ellison

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‘Turbulent flow is characterized by random and rapid fluctuations of swirling regions of fluid, called eddies, throughout the flow. These fluctuations provide an additional mechanism for momentum and energy transfer…

… but the high frequencies of eddies (in the order of a thousand per second) makes them very effective for the transport of momentum, thermal energy, and mass.’

Dry adiabatic? Seriously?

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by steven

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HR, models produce variations on the centennial time scale without changing the level of forcing.

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/papers/2012_jclim_karnauskasetal.pdf

Models also show that a change in poleward ocean heat transport can create large changes in the climate.

http://water.columbia.edu/files/2011/11/Seager2005OceanHeat.pdf

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~brose/page1/files/Rose_Ferreira_JClim2013.pdf

Reconstructions indicate we may have experienced an increase in ocean heat transport beginning around 1750.

This is all quantifiable and has been discussed here many times with variations depending on who was discussing it but to say there are no quantifiable hypotheses seems ofdd to me and further clarification would be appreciated.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by R. Gates

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Even simply measuring net flux of energy into the Arctic via ocean currents from record high OHC would call into serious question the possibility that the long term decline in Arctic sea ice would reverse or “revert to the mean”. Too much energy is accumulating in the Earth climate system for the long- term trend to reverse.


Comment on New presentations on sea ice by Mike Jonas

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Steven Mosher – you say “공자 앞에서 문자 쓴다”. Why Korean? Are you so embarrassed at what you are saying that you don’t want to put it in English so that everyone can read it? Please note : saying that we don’t know and an argument from ignorance are completely different things. Yours was the argument from ignorance.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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If the trend in both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent were down, then “global” energy accumulation would be the most likely “cause”. Since they are out of phase, at least some portion of the Arctic melt is likely due to something other than a common “Global” forcing. I believe Black Carbon, has been considered a larger than anticipated factor on Arctic ice and snow melt than Antarctic. Black Carbon along with other factors that reduce snow albedo which are more likely in the northern high latitudes than southern should at least get an honorable mention before leaping into the Human Carbon Volcano.

I believe that the “enourmous” energy accumulation once converted into temperature anomaly not only doesn’t explain the variation between hemisphere sea ice changes, it also doesn’t explain the “unprecidented” Arctic melt or the two points 2013 and 2014 that are missing from your frigthening graphic.

There has been a bit of discussion on the reliability of Arctic temperature reconstructions that might apply to your peer reviewed “evidence”.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by pokerguy

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Hah! I’d missed that. I like it. Could “SWAK” be next?

Comment on Open thread by its.not.co2@gmail.com

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Convection in gases can be diffusion or advection in physics. As diffusion accelerates there comes a point at which actual (very slow) bulk movement can be detected. If there was initially a state of thermodynamic equilibrium (with its gravitationally induced temperature gradient reduced somewhat by inter-molecular radiation) then convection always transfers thermal energy in all accessible directions away from the source of newly absorbed thermal energy which disturbed the thermodynamic equilibrium. What drives the measureable bulk movement is always a source of newly absorbed thermal energy. Remember that the speed of the advection is orders of magnitude less than that of molecules in free path motion which are busily repairing the temperature gradient. All this is so obvious in all planetary tropospheres, but perhaps most convincingly in the troposphere of Uranus.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by Rob Ellison

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Oh wow. Broacker was right in principle – but the detail was out by a lot.

Here’s on from 2009.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by R. Gates

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Mark Lewis,

Thanks for that chart. Very interesting. I’ve come across this notion several times, and it is hardly my own. The approximate 5 year cycle between release, rebuild, release, could be a coincidence or have a real physical basis in sea dynamics. The Arctic is changing so fast though that we may not know what “natural” variability is anymore as the anthropogenic fingerprint is so ubiquitous.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by Jim D

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A better fit was obtained by Vaughan Pratt with an exponential.


Comment on New presentations on sea ice by R. Gates

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“Lucifer | October 16, 2014 at 10:56 pm |
Arctic temperature anomalies in the 1930s were
apparently as large as those in the 1990s and 2000s”
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There were indeed some warm period in those decades, but the sea ice came no where close to the summer lows we’re seeing now.

Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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“No – I described the derivation and questioned the assumptions.”

Questioning assumptions doesn’t entitle you to assert mutually inconsistent claims. You claimed that under an adiabatic expansion process the average kinetic energy of the molecules is reduced but the total isn’t reduced because (as you alleged) it’s the same amount of energy spread out in a larger volume. But this explanation doesn’t work at all. If the average KE drops while the number of molecules is constant, then so does the total.

As I suggested a couple days ago, the only way I could see for you resolve this inconsistency would be to claim that the van der Waals forces between the molecules of air in the atmosphere are *so* *very* *strong* that real parcels of air hold cohesively together and don’t exert *any* force (and hence no work either) on the surrounding air while expanding. But this is obviously not what happens in the atmosphere.

I think just like Doug C, you are thrown away by the fact that there aren’t solid physical boundaries around the notional boundaries of the parcels of air for you to mentally visualize. Because you can’t picture the boundary as a concrete material object, you believe the motion of this notional boundary can’t have a real effect. But no real physical boundary is required at all for the effect to be produced by the expansion process. While the boundary is notional, its motion isn’t.

Consider the adiabatic expansion of the air in a vertical cylinder as the piston above is allowed to move out. Initially, the piston was held in position by a force equal to the pressure of the air multiplied by the area A of the piston. As the outside force on the piston is reduced, the air in the cylinder expands and the pressure in the cylinder drops accordingly. The temperature of the air drops and the reduction in internal energy must match exactly the work performed on the moving piston, as conservation of energy dictates. This work is W = F*dz = (P*A)*dz = P*dV.

But notice that there is no flow of heat through the piston. The process still is adiabatic. The energy is transferred through mechanical work (force times displacement). If fact there isn’t any flow of heat anywhere. The internal energy density drops uniformly throughout the volume of the expanding gas as its internal pressure also drops uniformly.

Thus we are entitled to consider separately the parcel of air constituted by the lower half of the cylindrical air column and inquire why *its* internal energy is dropping since *it* makes no contact with the piston. How is this energy leaving the parcel? Its notional boundary is the mid cross-section of the total air column below the piston. As the piston moves out some distance dz, this notional boundary moves out half the distance, dz/2. And the work performed by the lower air parcel is consequently W/2, which indeed must match its reduction in internal energy. When some virtual parcel of air is allowed to expand through a reduction of the pressure of the air above (or around) it, then the loss in internal energy only is a function of the pressure change. It doesn’t matter in the least that there isn’t a solid boundary in direct contact with the relevant parcel. The reduction in internal energy always is exactly PdV and doesn’t require a solid wall nearby to push against.

Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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“I just wondered if there were any other thoughts better than mine.”

No, I don’t have any explanation as to why the temperature gradient would exceed the dry adiabatic lapse rate and not give rise to any convective motion for any sustained period of time. Maybe the atmosphere is sick. The next time you notice this, I suggest you contact a good meteotherapist.

Comment on Open thread by Pierre-Normand

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There, I thought outside the parcel.

Comment on New presentations on sea ice by Ragnaar

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On page 16 here:

https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/sea-ice-physical-processes.pdf

There is the ‘Annual  cycle  of  net  surface  heat  flux for  various  ice thicknesses’
Roughly interpolating the no sea ice flux I got an average of – 310 Wm2 over the course of a year. Using the same chart of J. Schramm’s, thick sea ice seems about break even on fluxes.
The open water would seem to be emitting on average 310 Wm2 more LW than the SW it is absorbing. I think the important thing is the Arctic ocean heat loss rather than the relatively short term atmospheric temperature results as any long term answer depends on the oceans, and the oceans giving off heat moves it one step closer to the TOA.
If the Arctic sea ice is 3% of the Earth’s surface that would be about a (310/33.3) 9 Wm2 change, the thick ice versus no ice.
Is this enough watts to turn a cooling into a pause?
The sea ice loss is not 100% but if it’s 1/3 that’s still 3 Wm2 averaged over the Earth. I hope I am not reading charts upside down but it seems as we were told, the heat is coming out of the oceans.

Another thing I wonder about is given the insulating properties of sea ice as well as that of CO2, are we sure which changing insulation effect we are seeing in the Surface Average Temperature?

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