John Carter
You said;
‘Doing things like talking about a mere “15 year” pause even though what the issue actually is – heat energy accumulation, continues unabated and is accelerating, focusing on ambient air temperature as if the issue, for all this highfalutin talk of physics laws, was about a linear, immediate, and direct correlation between atmospheric air temperatures and greenhouse gas levels, and the far more relevant, longer term, non linearly changing, and normally stable ocean, glacier, permafrost, and (current) carbon storage have little to do with it,’
You are aware that Judith used to be an out and out warmist? She has gradually changed her mind as the proof of what she had previously believed has been lacking (other than in equations) and great uncertainties abound.
For instance you talk about ocean warming. Well it probably has warmed over the shorter term. However the abyssal deep meme is unproven and I heard Thomas Stocker himself say we did not have the technology to measure the heat in the deep oceans-below 2000 metres. The average depth is 4000 metres.
We know that the previous high point of sea levels was around 1600AD (presumably due to melt/thermal expansion) and prior to that around 1300 and prior to that around the 6th Century.
We know that the arctic melts to some extent or another on a fairly regular basis, the last time being the 1920-1940 period. According to Phil Jones the warmest two consecutive decades in Greenland were the 1930’s and 1940’s. Prior to that there was a well documented warming around 1818 to 1860 and we know the 1730’s were very warm there through the annals of the Hudson Bay company and prior to that a few decades of melt around 1540 when what was probably the hottest year of the last 500 occurred.
What has changed is that in that intervening period we had the misnamed LIA. An episodic series of events which was the coldest period of the warming Holocene. It cooled the oceans and deposited vast amounts of snow and ice, locking up water by way of reduced sea levels.
This is now melting and the results are rising sea levels and diminishing glaciers and general warming.
Here are borehole temperatures which show we have been warming for some 300 or 400 years.
http://www.earth.lsa.umich.edu/climate/core.html
As can be seen proxies are extremely poor at showing annual and decadal variability, so many consequently have this idea that the climate was stable prior to around 1900. Not so. Giss etc are merely staging posts of a warming world, not the starting post.
We can see similar or greater warmth to the present in the period 850 to 1200Ad and to a lesser extent, as regards duration, in the 1730’s.
I have cited these and given links many times.
tonyb
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