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Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by A fan of *MORE* discourse

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What part of the literature review is hard to understand?

“Many of the carcinogens present in mainstream smoke are known to exert their effects through a genotoxic mode of action, which is based on their ability to induce DNA damage and mutations, although an epigenetic mode of action, e.g., through aberrant DNA methylation and histone modifications, is also beginning to emerge for a few of these carcinogenic compounds.”

“The genotoxicity of mainstream smoke carcinogens manifests as mutations occurring in key cancer-related genes, i.e., proto-oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes that control crucial cellular functions, e.g., growth and survival, in lung tumors of active smokers.”

Common-sense conclusion  An effective way to harm animals and children is to blow toxic smoke and chemicals into their lungs.

It’s pretty amazing that institutions like the Marshall Institute and the Heartland Institute have consistently defended this grotesquely toxic practice.

Why is this? The world wonders.

Judith Curry, take notes on your associates!

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Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by beththeserf

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by Mike W.

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“FOMD’s Principle Not all loner-scientists are fruitjobs, but fruitjob-scientists all are loners.”

Dr David Viner for example? When he said “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,”

This is one of the fruitjob loners you are referring to Fan?

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by beththeserf

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Hey Jude!
Jest back from China …
Time fer some etcetera.
beth the serf.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by Mi Cro

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Steven commented
“That isn’t too difficult. The early models were running too hot so they adjusted them down.”

My understanding is that what they’ve been doing to adjust model output is to adjust aerosols to until output matches surface records. They have not been adjusting the positive feedback from Co2 to humidity.

Also , max temps have gone up All of 0.001F since 1940.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by aaron

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Don’t tell Jimmy D, he thinks there’s a 2W/m^2 imbalance.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by aaron

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Lessons from Pluto. Its surface is 10C cooler than expected due to the phase change of N2.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by Mi Cro

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David Appell (@davidappell) commented

When C&W came out I asked the HadCRUT people what they thought, and they told me the had plans to increase the number of stations, esp the big blank areas. But all datasets are going to require interpolating for some regions.

Why make up data? Can’t you just use the measurements and then calculate how much temps have changed?

Oh, I know why they don’t do that it’s because there isn’t any warming that way.

Since 1940 the sum of max temp anomaly for 95 million measurements is 0.0766F. That a total of 0.001F/decade (though it isn’t a trend, more of a flutter above and below 0F increase). But if they told you this there wouldn’t be a crisis business in climatology.


Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by PA

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<i><b>timg56</b> | October 20, 2014 at 4:53 pm | PA, Southern Company has been sending people to China to help with the learning curve on construction of the AP1000 plant.</i> From what I can tell at least 4 AP1000 reactors will be installed by Westinghouse as part of a technological cooperation agreement with the Chinese. People of Han Chinese descent are statistically the smartest people on the planet ... Perhaps they are following a wiser path than the US.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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Michael, “capn, at least you’ve moved on from your earlier claims.

Flu vaccine varies in effectiveness from year to year.

And effectiveness is always lower in older peple.(sic)”

I haven’t moved anywhere, that was my original claim only with 55 and older instead of 65 and older. I am not yet 65 and older so I tend to look for the proper data before leaping to conclusions.

The studies were simply flawed and you perpetuate the myth like a good minion. Bottom line, keep your pneumonia shot but the “flu” portion is likely to be ineffective.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by steven

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Yes, they adjust the aerosols among other things but aerosols are probably the main one. So if the models are running too hot you adjust the aerosols up either by quantity or effect and they aren’t running hot anymore. You can also adjust the estimated forcing or the sensitivity and both have been. I’m sure they have made adjustments to feedbacks also but I can’t think of any specific ones off hand and they are probably minor and vary model to model. As a bottom line though I would say your comment is right and the adjustment of aerosols is probably the main climate control knob, to steal a phrase.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by steven

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Let me rephrase that. They have adjusted some feedbacks and thus the sensitivity but I’m not sure which ones. That’s why the range of estimated sensitivity has changed.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by Mi Cro

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steven commented

Yes, they adjust the aerosols among other things but aerosols are probably the main one. So if the models are running too hot you adjust the aerosols up either by quantity or effect and they aren’t running hot anymore. You can also adjust the estimated forcing or the sensitivity and both have been. I’m sure they have made adjustments to feedbacks also but I can’t think of any specific ones off hand and they are probably minor and vary model to model. As a bottom line though I would say your comment is right and the adjustment of aerosols is probably the main climate control knob, to steal a phrase.

My understanding is that they couldn’t get the models warm enough until they, I think allowed for super saturation of air near the boundary of water, this is the positive feedback they built in. I don’t believe they’ve changed this because it’s key to consensus climate science, and the models don’t warm enough if they do.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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FOMBS, Your first SHS link is just about perfect.

“The small and somehow disputable risk of lung cancer development in relation to SHS exposure exemplifies the intricacy of establishing human cancer etiology when omnipresent carcinogens are concerned. Because of temporal variabilities in source, composition and concentration of SHS, conventional exposure assessment using indices of SHS, as measured in the ambient air or in the body fluids of exposed individuals, at certain times has failed to estimate long-term SHS exposure 10.”

The dispute is how small is small? It is not that cancer exists and SHS contains bad stuff.

“Concluding remarks
Environmental factors play a determining role in human cancer 34. Many cancer-causing agents (carcinogens) are present in the air we breathe, in the food we eat, and in the water we drink 34,45. Humans’ constant and to some extent unavoidable exposure to environmental carcinogens makes investigation of cancer etiology extremely complicated. The complexity of human cancer etiology is particularly challenging for those types of cancer with long latency, which are associated with exposure to ubiquitous environmental carcinogens 34. The small and somehow disputable risk of lung cancer development in relation to SHS exposure exemplifies the intricacy of establishing human cancer etiology when omnipresent carcinogens are concerned. Because of temporal variabilities in source, composition and concentration of SHS, conventional exposure assessment using indices of SHS, as measured in the ambient air or in the body fluids of exposed individuals, at certain times has failed to estimate long-term SHS exposure 10. Consequently, although the causal link between SHS exposure and lung cancer development is well-established 1–3, the estimated risk for developing lung cancer consequent to SHS exposure remains somewhat debatable.”

With a “small” risk it is pretty hard not to have a debate. So you have a causal link, SHS does contain bad stuff, but then so does about everything else, so it gets back to exactly how small? When other factors are as bad or are worse than SHS, why focus on the close to insignificant? Could it be the depth of pockets?

I enjoy Biscuits. I am sure there are or could be plenty of papers that show that fresh buttery biscuits with country sausage gravy have to knock at least a year of two off my “projected” lifespan. Notice I used “Buttery” not Transfatty, that could be a confounding issue :) but there isn’t A big biscuit with deep pockets is there? How about Big Wheat?

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by Richard Case

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David,

I ask again… what are the source(s) of your income?


Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by steven

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I’m not sure about the supersaturation issue. I remember reading comments about it but never checked it out myself.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by PA

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Joseph | October 20, 2014 at 4:34 pm |
PA, how are you going to get billions of people out of poverty in this century, if they are going to rely primarily on fossil fuels for economic growth, and not dramatically increase CO2 emissions?

Uhhh, just why would we want to stop CO2 emissions?

CO2 isn’t pollution and at the practical levels we can drive it too I’m not sure there is any risk of negative effects. The 20th century had a 50% increase in plant growth and that’s a benefit.

Most of the emitted CO2 (9.8 carbon Gt/year) is going into the ocean at the poles (90+ carbon Gt/year) where the pCO2 effective concentration is about a 1/3 of the atmospheric level (I could look it up for a better number). The drift speed at the bottom of the ocean is cm/s. I see numbers in the 5-10 range. Upwelling CO2 (about 6 carbon Gt less than goes in at the poles) at the equator is from the time of Jesus or earlier (for 10 cm/s the time delay is about 3170 years). The time delay makes the ocean virtually an infinite sink. I welcome input from professional oceanographers on the mean time delay between absorption and emission since this isn’t my area of expertise.

I can’t tell at this point who is right about CO2 forcing plus feedback but right now the low enders are winning. Until we get better data – knee jerk panic driven policies will have the same impact knee jerk panic driven policies usually have, and this is something to be avoided.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by Michael

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capt,

Babbling again.

The 9% figure was for one year, and for one particular strain of flu virus.

And what studies are flawed??

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by captdallas2 0.8 +/- 0.2

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Michael, “And what studies are flawed??”

You obviously only snipe for the sake of it.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2011/11/flu-vaccine-efficacy-time-revise-public-messages

Basing “flu” efficacy on hospital admissions for pneumonia isn’t useful. The pneumonia shot is close to 70% effective across all age groups and the younger are less likely to get pneumonia to begin with. The studies based on “avoided” hospital admissions are flawed.

You should read up, it is actually very interesting.

Comment on Back from the twitter twilight zone: Responses to my WSJ op-ed by nickels

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I grew up with all the usual psychotic fundamentalist religious types.
Their argument is “Well, even if you dont believe in the holy god, what if he does exist? Shouldn’t you be born again just in case?”.
Its the same BS from the climate religion camp. “Well, even if there is no evidence that passes scrutiny outside our little circle J, its possible it might warm so shouldnt we lay waste to our economy trying?”
They can all just f off is my humble take.

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