bill c
The calculation you propose caught my eye.
In theory, such an approach makes sense.
Where one gets into difficulties is in attempting to put real-time quantitative figures into the slots.
Let me start by trying.
We have the physically observed long-term CO2 temperature response from 1850 to 2010, with two estimates of the solar impact over that period: that of the IPCC (with a conceded “low level of scientific understanding of solar forcing”) and that of several studies by solar scientists (which I have cited).
Using the loigarithmic relation, these estimates calculate out to a long-term CO2 temperature response of between 0.8 and 1.5 deg C (depending on which estimate one takes for the solar portion).
IOW, TCR (per your equation) = 0.8 to 1.5 degC or 1.15+/-0.35 degC.
Now, the “pipeline” concept leaves me a bit cold, as it is based purely on hypothetical deliberations rather than empirical data based on actual physical observations, but let’s play your game.
Using the ratio you propose, we have
TCR (observed) =1.15+/-0.35 degC
“Pipeline” (assumed) = 0.38 deg C
Total (estimated) = 1.53+/-0.35 = 1.2 – 1.9 degC = ECS
This would come out to around one-half of the value being promoted by IPCC AR4 as a “mean” value = 3.2 degC.
Max