Numbnut,
Abrupt changes are the sad thing about it. They imply extreme sensitivity at saddle points – as I have said in this thread. And indeed as Tsonis and colleagues say in the paper from which I excised the figure showing residuals after removing ‘natural variation’. Can I assume from this that you are in denial about natural variation. Can’t be because you mentioned abrupt paleoclimatic change?
The whole screams green overreach – and there is a shrill echo claiming that the 00′s were warmer than the 90′s therefore we are still warming. I wonder if that would be so obvious if it were not for Mt Pinotubo? Regardless, you can be assured that we are in a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Variation – and this cannot help but be a global cooling influence. As even the merest study of oceanography would show you. You forget also that I am a hydrologist and my love has been for the rain and the rivers, streams, lakes and oceans. I understand more than most hydrological variability.
3.7 W/m2 is a 1% change in albedo. It changes this much and more in a year sometimes – according to the satellite data.
Ocean pH change is not distinguisable from background variability – although I am not one to say that we can continue with impunity increasing CO2 emissions as the global economy continues to grow.
You have less than a nuanced understanding. We are in a cool mode. This is obvious to all but those who won’t see – natural variability for God’s sake.