I think this linear vs. nonlinear change distinction is perhaps a false dilemma.
It’s rather like the theory of ‘punctuated equilibria’ in evolutionary biology. The fossil record shows periods of relative stasis punctuated by periods of relatively rapid change. Some have taken this fact to undermine the theory of natural selection. But it is all a question of scale. When you look closely at the periods of rapid change, they too are commensurate with natural selection. The theory relies upon ordinary speciation, and thus the morphology proposed is a form of evolutionary gradualism, in spite of the name.
Do we need a new non-linear paradigm of the climate?
I don’t know the answer to that question, but I am curious as to what such a paradigm would even look like.
For example – How could the climate paradigm change without a fundamental change in our understanding of the relevant physics? That won’t happen just because we ‘decide’ to adopt a new paradigm – It would require convincing evidence that our current physical theories are false. There is a huge difference between false and uncertain.
