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Comment on Trends, change points & hypotheses by Chris Ho-Stuart

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Manaker, my reply was basically that we are not limited to observations of temperature. It’s physics which leads us to think that this isn’t just cycles.

Looking at nothing at all but the temperature trends, without any consideration of what is actually causing them, would remove entirely my whole basis for expecting the 30 year trend to remain comparatively strong warming.

I know Girma’s point was that the temperature data doesn’t (by itself) give strong evidence for a persistent ongoing trend. I agree that we need more. I think we HAVE more, and said so. I know we have have more, because it’s really the physics which is more my particular interest than statistics on trends.


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