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Comment on Communicating Uncertain Climate Risks by JCH

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If overall SLR by 2100 is ~1 meter, the the Netherlands, and a fair percentage of the rest of the world’s coastlines, will have a big problem on their hands.

Greenland’s sea level will drop a great deal because of rebound. Not all land masses have that sort of insurance against SLR. How many glaciers are there in the Netherlands? I looked at Bart Verhaggen’s website and it appears they have massive glaciers; therefore, I change my mind. Like Greenland, the Netherlands is going to bounce up in the air and it will have no sea level problems; instead, a bunch of useless dike problems.

During the 20th Century SLR was ~6.6 inches (170mm, or 1.7mm per year.) I called that fairly stable, and it is. They have had to persistently improve their seawall system because of the problems that came with 6.6 inches. The tallest Dutch seawall number I found is 13 meters. There is obviously way more to holding out the ocean than that measly 6.6 inches might indicate. The current rate is ~3.2mm per year. This indicates that dynamic losses in ice sheets are beginning to happen. That could stop. It could remain about the same. It could get worse.


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