Rob and Fred
I suspect (unlike Fred) that the real reason your question was censored out by Gavin is that it raised embarrassing questions, which he was unable to either answer or brush aside (my experience on this site).
The problem is that Gavin has been playing around with models so long that he has forgotten that they are simply multi-million dollar extensions of the old slide rule and has started to actually believe them.
The old “GIGO” rule still applies.
Max