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Comment on Demon Coal by Bart R

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Mr. Orssengo

For once, listen to Steven Mosher (http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/12/demon-coal/#comment-184924)

Even you must admit that there are overwhelming criticisms of your simple first order trend analysis graphs that to every appearance you just do not actually understand on the most straightforward technical level.

Now, you turn to second order graphical analysis, seeking to repeat the legion of graphical errors at a completely different order of operations.

Read some competent introductory literature on graphical analysis and methods. Do some remedial tests. Watch some youtubes. Attend the Khan academy. Audit some university courses. Before. You. Make. A. Bigger. Fool. Of. Yourself.

If you must, in the end, do analysis of trends of trends, at least do not make the simpleton’s mistake of looking only at trends all of the same length. Look at plots of trends of different fixed lengths. Compare these multiple plots to each other. Keep the original curve handy for reference. Perhaps start with data from a subject you feel less obsessively passionate about, to practice and learn some technique.

The interpretation you seek to do is among the most dubious practices of graphical analysis: done properly, much can be revealed of the nature of problem spaces. Which means you may as well be reading entrails.


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