When I come to look at the unexpected warmth I identified at the 1538 start date of this article it would be useful to look at this paper in greater detail;
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/mholland/papers/Polyak_2010_historyofseaiceArctic.pdf
page 1772
‘The subsequent decline of bowhead abundances in the CAA is consistent with the abandonment of the high Arctic of Canada and Greenland by bowhead hunters, while Thule living in more southern Arctic regions increasingly focused on alternate food resources.
The warming event around 1500A.D.is identified by climatic simulations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic and is explained by the internal variability of atmospheric circulation (Crespinetal.2009). The subsequent cooling culminated in the‘‘LittleIceAge’’,between ca1600 and 1850AD, when ice conditions in the high Arctic remained especially prohibitive for navigation(e.g., Altet al.,1985).’
tonyb