Where do you get the idea that the cycle hasn’t peaked? http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_640x480.png
‘As noted before, all of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up either as a continued La Niña event for a third year (four out of ten), or switched to El Niño (six out of ten), with none of them ending up as ENSO-neutral. The year 2012 promises to remain “interesting”.’ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Have a look at the multi decadal pattern in the MEI. La Nina (blue) dominant to 1976, El Nino to 1998 and La Nina since. We should be getting more frequent and intense La Nina for a decade or three more – and less intnese El Nino. This is an important mode of climate variability that as a general pattern you should try to understand. There are thousands of studies on this mode of Pacific decadal variability – start anywhere.
We may get a weak El Nino later this year – but it is particulary cool – http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/anomnight.3.22.2012.gif
Cheers