Comment on The Future of Natural Gas by Rutt Bridges

Owen,
Good question! If the market grows, the length of time that the reserves will last should also decrease. So based on current reserves the 100 year supply will decrease. However, there is strong historical evidence that estimated remaining reserves also increase over time as a result of technology improvements. We have seen this in oil and gas as well as other commodities. The impact of horizontal drilling and improved frac technologies are prime examples. If not, increased prices will drive greater reserves until the market forces alternative solutions. However, I suspect that fifty years of reserves will be plenty, given the pace of scientific technology. Surely we’ll have much more effective solar, enhanced geothermal, wind and tidal electricity sources of electricity in five decades. Looking back over the past 50 years, I have confidence that the market will deliver reasonable alternatives.
Rutt