I believe CMP5 has a fundamental problem. That modern climate started in 1960-61. This is a common error. The starting date should be about 1905. Between 1905 and 1940 global temperature rose about 0.5C due to CO2. There was then a transport delay of about 30 years during which global atmospheric temperature actually fell despite higher CO2, but 100% absorption. After 1970 the earlier temperature rise had propagated through the oceans, producing the present atmospheric temperature. See my ‘An alternative theory of climate change’ at http://members.iinet.net.au/~alexandergbiggs.Obviously ignoring a large permanent chunk of heat pre-1940 would make prediction difficult.
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