@Pekka
I was reading your english blog’s most recent entry and would point out that the basic physics underlying atmospheric physics are not as settled as you seem to think. I would point to one very recent and very important finding in this regard. That is the reflectivity of clouds. There is a phenomenon called “The Glory” which was first observed several hundred years ago by mountain climbers looking downwards on a cloud with the sun at their back. The climber would see his shadow on the cloud but he would also see a rainbow halo around his shadow. If there were other climbers he would see their shadows but he would not see their halos. The sunlight, you see, is being reflected back at precisely 180 degrees so you see your own halo but not that of someone whose shadow precisely in front of you. The problem is that there is no physics which describes how light can be refracted 180 degrees by a water droplet. That angle is well beyond the optical limit of refraction. The answer, it turns out, is due to quantum tunneling. If a photon passes within a wavelength of a water droplet it can tunnel into one side of the water droplet then tunnel out the opposite side traveling in the exact opposite direction. The critical weakness in climate models, as you may know, is clouds. The rest of the stuff is, as you say, fairly straightforward and explained by basic classical physics. The empirical evidence all points to the water cycle as having a net negative feedback which serves to put an upper bound on surface temperature yet to get climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling to something more worrysome than welcome this thing called water vapor amplification was invented out of (pardon the pun) thin air. This increases the sensitivity to a CO2 doubling from a widely agreed upon maximum of 1.1C to at least treble that number. This is pure unadulterated fantasy. The highest mean annual temperature on the earth’s surface is an equatorial salt desert. If water vapor amplification were true the hottest place would be an equatorial jungle or ocean where there’s far more water. The fact of the matter is that where you have water vapor you have clouds and clouds in sum reflect more light than they trap. This recently described quantum tunneling of light to acheive a 180 degree reflection in a photon is not contained in extant cloud models and IMO is probably why the models have the net effect of clouds making the surface warmer while the observations show them having the opposite effect. The model would have all photons not striking a water droplet passing by to a lower level in the atmosphere and, eventually, causing more photons to reach the surface. The quantum tunneling which captures and reflects by 180 degrees photons passing close to a water droplet makes a big difference. Without water vapor amplification catastrophic global warming become welcomed global warming and efforts to mitigate human emissions go from a possibly productive endeavour to a certainly counter-productive endeavour.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-science-of-the-glory