Brian H
Re: "most likely next abrupt nonlinear change would be a return to the overdue Ice Sheet condition which bounds interglacials like ours."
Good observation. The greatest uncertainty is:
<b>Will our descendents Fry or Freeze?</b>
Climate appears to have substantially COOLED since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_climatic_optimum" rel="nofollow">Holocene climatic optimum.</a>
Freezing has far greater dangers than warming ("frying."). We can accommodate a rise in sea level. It is much harder to grow food under glaciers.
Now the key question is:
<b>Can we achieve and sustain sufficient anthropogenic warming to avoid the next glaciation?</b>
To decide, we must accurately understand and quantify ALL natural drivers as well as anthropogenic drivers for BOTH warming and cooling.
To date IPCC models do not include major natural oscillations and cannot be validated - <a href="http://rankexploits.com/musings/2012/roy-announced-uah-june-289c/" / rel="nofollow">Lucia shows that they are running 2 sigma too warm for the last 32 years.</a>
How do we discover where the models are wrong and how much?
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